MLB Daily Notes - June 13th

A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.

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It wasn’t a huge day of baseball yesterday so I’m not going to add anything to the notes below.

I wanted to bring up the new resource I made over the weekend, it’s an Excel sheet of the next 10 days worth of probable pitchers and projected scores. It looks like this:

It goes on for the next 10 days, so you can use that to see your upcoming SP matchups or find a streamer or something. The “Proj” column is actually just an average of the last three projections I’ve made for each pitcher, it’s not an actual projection using the opponent and ballpark and stuff - but I thought it was a useful thing to add to see generally what the projection model thinks about those guys.

The link is below the paywall and in the resource glossary, so give that a bookmark if you like it.

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I also wrote an extra post yesterday examing HR/FB to find over-performers and under-performers in home runs this year. Lots of stuff in there and it’s free for all, check it out here:

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And now we’ll go on to the report, again - no further commentary from me today - talk to you later!

Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday

1. James Paxton (vs. COL): 26.5 Points

2. Bryce Miller (vs. MIA): 25.1 Points

3. Charlie Morton (vs. DET): 24.56 Points

4. Logan Webb (vs. STL): 21.55 Points

5. Connor Seabold (vs. BOS): 19.3 Points

6. Ken Waldichuk (vs. TB): 15.55 Points

7. James Kaprielian (vs. TB): 14.7 Points

8. Matthew Liberatore (vs. SF): 14.1 Points

9. Tyler Anderson (vs. TEX): 11.5 Points

10. Zach Eflin (vs. OAK): 10.31 Points

Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday

1. Charlie Morton (ATL): 17 Whiffs (104 Pitches)

2. Tommy Henry (ARI): 17 Whiffs (85 Pitches)

3. Tyler Anderson (LAA): 16 Whiffs (105 Pitches)

4. James Paxton (BOS): 16 Whiffs (98 Pitches)

5. Zach Eflin (TB): 13 Whiffs (94 Pitches)

6. James Kaprielian (OAK): 13 Whiffs (93 Pitches)

7. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 12 Whiffs (81 Pitches)

8. Bryce Miller (SEA): 12 Whiffs (89 Pitches)

9. Connor Seabold (COL): 10 Whiffs (88 Pitches)

10. Ken Waldichuk (OAK): 8 Whiffs (51 Pitches)

Strike% Leaders - Yesterday

1. Ken Waldichuk (OAK): 60.8 Strike%, 27.5 Ball%

2. James Paxton (BOS): 56.1 Strike%, 28.6 Ball%

3. Zack Greinke (KC): 51.9 Strike%, 29.6 Ball%

4. James Kaprielian (OAK): 49.5 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%

5. Luke Weaver (CIN): 49.5 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%

6. Bryce Miller (SEA): 49.4 Strike%, 37.1 Ball%

7. Connor Seabold (COL): 48.9 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%

8. Zach Eflin (TB): 48.9 Strike%, 38.3 Ball%

9. Tommy Henry (ARI): 48.2 Strike%, 32.9 Ball%

10. Charlie Morton (ATL): 46.2 Strike%, 41.3 Ball%

11. Matt Strahm (PHI): 46.0 Strike%, 32.0 Ball%

12. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 45.7 Strike%, 34.6 Ball%

13. Dane Dunning (TEX): 45.6 Strike%, 36.7 Ball%

14. Tyler Alexander (DET): 45.1 Strike%, 31.4 Ball%

15. Logan Webb (SF): 44.3 Strike%, 31.8 Ball%

Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday

1. James Paxton - 6.0 IP - 146.0 JA Points

2. James Kaprielian - 6.0 IP - 139.0 JA Points

3. Logan Webb - 6.67 IP - 128.0 JA Points

4. Charlie Morton - 5.67 IP - 123.5 JA Points

5. Bryce Miller - 6.0 IP - 109.5 JA Points

6. Zach Eflin - 4.67 IP - 104.0 JA Points

7. Matthew Liberatore - 5.67 IP - 100.5 JA Points

8. Connor Seabold - 5.67 IP - 94.5 JA Points

9. Ken Waldichuk - 3.0 IP - 94.0 JA Points

10. Jesus Luzardo - 4.0 IP - 88.0 JA Points

Pitcher JA Scores - Season

1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 13.0 GS - 121.86 JA Points

2. Trevor Richards (TOR) - 1.0 GS - 119.5 JA Points

3. Nick Lodolo (CIN) - 7.0 GS - 119.12 JA Points

4. Alex Wood (SF) - 7.0 GS - 111.4 JA Points

5. David Peterson (NYM) - 8.0 GS - 109.05 JA Points

6. Luis Castillo (SEA) - 13.0 GS - 108.64 JA Points

7. Brayan Bello (BOS) - 10.0 GS - 107.97 JA Points

8. Jesus Luzardo (MIA) - 14.0 GS - 107.1 JA Points

9. James Paxton (BOS) - 6.0 GS - 106.74 JA Points

10. Connor Brogdon (PHI) - 1.0 GS - 106.5 JA Points

Velo Changes - Yesterday

Bryce Miller's SL velo (20 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 86.8

Connor Seabold's SL velo (25 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 86.8

Tyler Anderson's CH velo (33 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 81.2

Matthew Liberatore's SI velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 93.2

Matthew Liberatore's CH velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 86.1

Zack Greinke's SL velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 77.8

Charlie Morton's CH velo (10 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 84.4

Zack Greinke's CU velo (14 pitches) DOWN -3.2mph to 70.1

Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday

Garrett Hill's SL usage (40.4%) up 12.6 points

Garrett Hill's CH usage (19.2%) up 11.5 points

James Paxton's CU usage (33.7%) up 18.0 points

Ken Waldichuk's CH usage (33.3%) up 18.0 points

Logan Webb's CH usage (47.7%) up 12.7 points

Matthew Liberatore's CH usage (12.8%) up 10.1 points

Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts

Jameson Taillon Cutter: -20.9%

Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: +18.8%

Yu Darvish Sinker: +18.3%

Jameson Taillon 4-Seam Fastball: +18.0%

JP Sears Sweeper: -16.4%

Logan Allen Changeup: +15.7%

Matt Strahm Cutter: -15.4%

Noah Syndergaard Curveball: +14.7%

Yusei Kikuchi Changeup: -14.4%

Mike Clevinger 4-Seam Fastball: -13.8%

Sonny Gray 4-Seam Fastball: +13.6%

J.P. France Changeup: +13.0%

Adrian Houser Sinker: +13.0%

Tanner Houck Cutter: -13.0%

Jose Berrios 4-Seam Fastball: -12.4%

CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Braxton Garrett - 82 TBF, 35.8% CSW%

Charlie Morton - 100 TBF, 35.1% CSW%

Luis Castillo - 74 TBF, 34.9% CSW%

Spencer Strider - 92 TBF, 34.9% CSW%

Colin Rea - 89 TBF, 34.7% CSW%

Corbin Burnes - 79 TBF, 34.0% CSW%

Jesus Luzardo - 86 TBF, 33.9% CSW%

James Paxton - 89 TBF, 33.3% CSW%

Aaron Nola - 103 TBF, 32.8% CSW%

Michael Kopech - 93 TBF, 32.6% CSW%

K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Hunter Greene - 68 TBF, 41.2% K%

Spencer Strider - 92 TBF, 38.0% K%

Kevin Gausman - 98 TBF, 36.7% K%

Michael Kopech - 93 TBF, 36.6% K%

Blake Snell - 92 TBF, 35.9% K%

Luis Castillo - 74 TBF, 35.1% K%

James Paxton - 89 TBF, 33.7% K%

Max Scherzer - 81 TBF, 33.3% K%

Jon Gray - 77 TBF, 32.5% K%

Clayton Kershaw - 75 TBF, 32.0% K%

K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Max Scherzer - 81 TBF, 32.1% K-BB%

Michael Kopech - 93 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%

Hunter Greene - 68 TBF, 30.9% K-BB%

Jon Gray - 77 TBF, 29.9% K-BB%

Luis Castillo - 74 TBF, 29.7% K-BB%

Spencer Strider - 92 TBF, 28.3% K-BB%

Zack Wheeler - 75 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%

Jesus Luzardo - 86 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%

James Paxton - 89 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%

Kevin Gausman - 98 TBF, 25.5% K-BB%

GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Marcus Stroman - 110 TBF, 71.4% GB%

Zach Eflin - 94 TBF, 61.8% GB%

Hunter Brown - 72 TBF, 60.5% GB%

Logan Webb - 104 TBF, 57.5% GB%

Bryce Elder - 101 TBF, 56.2% GB%

Bobby Miller - 87 TBF, 54.4% GB%

Framber Valdez - 75 TBF, 54.2% GB%

Ranger Suarez - 99 TBF, 53.4% GB%

Sandy Alcantara - 106 TBF, 52.6% GB%

Braxton Garrett - 82 TBF, 51.9% GB%

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks

Braxton Garrett - 82 TBF, 30.5 K%, 6.1 BB%, 51.9% GB%

Clayton Kershaw - 75 TBF, 32.0 K%, 6.7 BB%, 47.8% GB%

Jesus Luzardo - 86 TBF, 30.2 K%, 3.5 BB%, 49.1% GB%

Max Scherzer - 81 TBF, 33.3 K%, 1.2 BB%, 43.4% GB%

Ryan Walker - 44 TBF, 29.5 K%, 4.5 BB%, 64.3% GB%

Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career

Miles Mikolas - +3.7% CSW%, -2.2 BB%

Michael Kopech - +2.4% CSW%, -5.0 BB%

Jesus Luzardo - +3.6% CSW%, -5.3 BB%

Jon Gray - +2.6% CSW%, -5.4 BB%

Luis Castillo - +5.3% CSW%, -2.3 BB%

Daniel Lynch - +2.7% CSW%, -1.9 BB%

Griffin Canning - +4.0% CSW%, -7.1 BB%

Zach Davies - +4.2% CSW%, -3.9 BB%

Kyle Bradish - +3.0% CSW%, -3.8 BB%

Chris Stratton - +3.3% CSW%, -1.5 BB%

Multiple Barrels

Andy Ibanez (DET) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

J.T. Realmuto (PHI) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 3 Barrels, 1 HR

Rafael Devers (BOS) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR

Randy Arozarena (TB) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR

Shohei Ohtani (LAA) 6 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR

New Max Launch Velos

Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday

1. J.T. Realmuto - 5.0 PA - 62.5 JA Points

2. Shohei Ohtani - 6.0 PA - 37.5 JA Points

3. Leody Taveras - 6.0 PA - 37.0 JA Points

4. Ketel Marte - 5.0 PA - 30.5 JA Points

5. Patrick Bailey - 4.0 PA - 29.5 JA Points

6. Eugenio Suarez - 4.0 PA - 29.5 JA Points

7. Nick Castellanos - 5.0 PA - 28.0 JA Points

8. Zach Neto - 5.0 PA - 23.0 JA Points

9. Nick Fortes - 3.0 PA - 20.5 JA Points

10. Randy Arozarena - 4.0 PA - 20.0 JA Points

Hitter JA Scores - Season

1. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 297.0 PA - 21.48 JA Points

2. Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 299.0 PA - 15.65 JA Points

3. Josh Naylor (CLE) - 220.0 PA - 9.09 JA Points

4. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 209.0 PA - 7.56 JA Points

5. Mookie Betts (LAD) - 289.0 PA - 1.18 JA Points

6. Bo Bichette (TOR) - 300.0 PA - -1.2 JA Points

7. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 245.0 PA - -3.67 JA Points

8. Bryan Reynolds (PIT) - 265.0 PA - -4.75 JA Points

9. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 281.0 PA - -5.2 JA Points

10. Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 265.0 PA - -8.68 JA Points

Hardest Hit Balls

Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 114.1mph - home_run

Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 113.3mph - double

Adam Duvall (BOS) - 112.6mph - nan

Willson Contreras (STL) - 111.7mph - field_out

Nick Castellanos (PHI) - 111.2mph - single

Jose Siri (TB) - 110.9mph - home_run

Garrett Cooper (MIA) - 110.1mph - field_out

Jordan Walker (STL) - 110.0mph - single

Michael Harris II (ATL) - 110.0mph - field_error

Elehuris Montero (COL) - 109.9mph - grounded_into_double_play

Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison

Top 10

Bobby Witt Jr. - 72 PA, 0.337 wOBA, 0.44 xwOBA, 0.103 Diff

Kyle Schwarber - 84 PA, 0.336 wOBA, 0.436 xwOBA, 0.1 Diff

Tommy Edman - 70 PA, 0.209 wOBA, 0.308 xwOBA, 0.099 Diff

Anthony Volpe - 59 PA, 0.156 wOBA, 0.253 xwOBA, 0.097 Diff

Rafael Devers - 75 PA, 0.295 wOBA, 0.392 xwOBA, 0.097 Diff

Francisco Lindor - 76 PA, 0.279 wOBA, 0.369 xwOBA, 0.09 Diff

Nolan Gorman - 68 PA, 0.215 wOBA, 0.292 xwOBA, 0.077 Diff

Trea Turner - 83 PA, 0.281 wOBA, 0.356 xwOBA, 0.075 Diff

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 84 PA, 0.306 wOBA, 0.377 xwOBA, 0.071 Diff

Bryce Harper - 77 PA, 0.346 wOBA, 0.413 xwOBA, 0.067 Diff

Bottom 10

Corbin Carroll - 79 PA, 0.527 wOBA, 0.365 xwOBA, -0.162 Diff

Jorge Soler - 73 PA, 0.462 wOBA, 0.381 xwOBA, -0.081 Diff

Bryson Stott - 76 PA, 0.338 wOBA, 0.26 xwOBA, -0.078 Diff

Isaac Paredes - 59 PA, 0.373 wOBA, 0.297 xwOBA, -0.076 Diff

Josh Naylor - 68 PA, 0.455 wOBA, 0.381 xwOBA, -0.074 Diff

Ty France - 75 PA, 0.435 wOBA, 0.364 xwOBA, -0.071 Diff

Orlando Arcia - 73 PA, 0.346 wOBA, 0.275 xwOBA, -0.071 Diff

Jeremy Pena - 71 PA, 0.372 wOBA, 0.301 xwOBA, -0.071 Diff

Spencer Steer - 84 PA, 0.411 wOBA, 0.34 xwOBA, -0.071 Diff

Luis Arraez - 78 PA, 0.413 wOBA, 0.342 xwOBA, -0.071 Diff

Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders

Trent Grisham - 61 PA, 35 BIP, 9 Brls, 25.7 Brl%

Gunnar Henderson - 52 PA, 35 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.9 Brl%

Jack Suwinski - 59 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%

Kyle Schwarber - 84 PA, 47 BIP, 10 Brls, 21.3 Brl%

Shohei Ohtani - 86 PA, 57 BIP, 11 Brls, 19.3 Brl%

Keibert Ruiz - 52 PA, 43 BIP, 8 Brls, 18.6 Brl%

Jorge Soler - 73 PA, 44 BIP, 8 Brls, 18.2 Brl%

Joey Wiemer - 71 PA, 40 BIP, 7 Brls, 17.5 Brl%

Ryan McMahon - 88 PA, 52 BIP, 9 Brls, 17.3 Brl%

J.D. Martinez - 73 PA, 47 BIP, 8 Brls, 17.0 Brl%

Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders

Freddie Freeman - 78 PA, 0.49 xwOBA

Mookie Betts - 82 PA, 0.448 xwOBA

Luke Raley - 50 PA, 0.443 xwOBA

Bobby Witt Jr. - 72 PA, 0.44 xwOBA

Kyle Schwarber - 84 PA, 0.436 xwOBA

Ryan McMahon - 88 PA, 0.433 xwOBA

Gunnar Henderson - 52 PA, 0.43 xwOBA

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 84 PA, 0.426 xwOBA

Donovan Solano - 59 PA, 0.423 xwOBA

Corey Seager - 83 PA, 0.42 xwOBA

Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders

Wander Franco - 73 PA, 112 Swings, 92.0 Cont%

Luis Arraez - 78 PA, 145 Swings, 90.3 Cont%

Kyle Tucker - 71 PA, 126 Swings, 89.7 Cont%

Nico Hoerner - 81 PA, 173 Swings, 89.6 Cont%

Brendan Donovan - 73 PA, 118 Swings, 89.0 Cont%

Tucupita Marcano - 52 PA, 98 Swings, 88.8 Cont%

Jeff McNeil - 71 PA, 119 Swings, 88.2 Cont%

Willie Calhoun - 53 PA, 73 Swings, 87.7 Cont%

Geraldo Perdomo - 51 PA, 97 Swings, 87.6 Cont%

Alejandro Kirk - 54 PA, 112 Swings, 86.6 Cont%

Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders

Michael A. Taylor - 5 Attempts (5 steals)

Ronald Acuna Jr. - 5 Attempts (5 steals)

Bobby Witt Jr. - 5 Attempts (4 steals)

Christian Yelich - 5 Attempts (4 steals)

Corey Julks - 5 Attempts (4 steals)

Jake McCarthy - 5 Attempts (4 steals)

Nolan Jones - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Spencer Steer - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Daulton Varsho - 4 Attempts (3 steals)

Ji Hwan Bae - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Esteury Ruiz - 4 Attempts (3 steals)

Elly De La Cruz - 4 Attempts (4 steals)

Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders

Esteury Ruiz - 16 Attempts (13 steals)

Ronald Acuna Jr. - 14 Attempts (11 steals)

Bobby Witt Jr. - 12 Attempts (9 steals)

Jake McCarthy - 11 Attempts (10 steals)

Wander Franco - 11 Attempts (10 steals)

Christian Yelich - 10 Attempts (8 steals)

Willi Castro - 10 Attempts (10 steals)

Josh Lowe - 10 Attempts (9 steals)

Jake Fraley - 9 Attempts (7 steals)

Taylor Walls - 9 Attempts (9 steals)

Corbin Carroll - 9 Attempts (9 steals)

Starling Marte - 9 Attempts (9 steals)

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