I drank some whiskey last night. That’s how we’re opening the daily notes today. We are in Ocean City, New Jersey, which is a family vacation spot. The town is totally dry, so you have to drive back onto the mainland to buy alcohol. But I did that last night. I woke up feeling like I drank about a third of the bottle, but then I came up to the kitchen and looked at it, and it hardly looks like I opened the thing. So that’s where I’m at now. I should probably just give it up entirely.
The sun is a real problem out here. We brought the blackout thing for the kids’ room windows, but it doesn’t work. They know when the sun is up. Which is pretty amazing. Your body just knows where the sun is. We’re all kind of in tune with God’s creation. We’re also completely subject to it. For all of the amazing stuff humans have come up with, we’re still tiny and powerless to something like the ocean. We had a mini tornado thing come through our area in Indiana a couple of months ago and we drove through some of the winds. It wasn’t even that bad, but man, it’s humbling. An encounter like that just makes you step back and realize your weakness. I feel the same way looking at the ocean, which I can see right now. The ocean is terrifying. And then I’m reading this CS LewisSpace Trilogy series while I’m here, so I have the vastness of space in my mind as well. And that’s terrifying. I guess space isn’t really “terrifying” cause we’re never in it. Like I could go swim in the ocean and die if I wanted, but I can’t get to space.
At the beginning of the first book, the main character gets kidnapped, drugged, and put in a spaceship that takes him to Mars. And while he’s on the trip he’s thinking about the name of what was around him being called “space”, and I thought it was really good:
He had read of “Space”: at the back of his thinking for years had lurked the dismal fancy of the black, cold vacuity, the utter deadness, which was supposed to separate the worlds. He had not known how much it affected him till now—now that the very name “Space” seemed a blasphemous libel for this empyrean ocean of radiance in which they swam. He could not call it “dead”; he felt life pouring into him from it every moment. How indeed should it be otherwise, since out of this ocean the worlds and all their life had come? ... No: space was the wrong name. Older thinkers had been wiser when they named it simply the heavens—the heavens which declared the glory…
I’m not trying to act like some deep thinker who people want to listen to here, but the baseball scripts are still running and then residuals of the whiskey have me wanting to type more words at you all. But the perspective of all of this is good. We often cannot see far past our nose, and getting buried in the little things of life really takes away the context of who and where we are in God’s creation. It’s humbling, and sometimes outright humiliating (same root word!), but you’re not going very far spiritually until you realize your starting place.
I’m going to do this a little bit differently today. Usually, I’d write everything at the top and then have all the automated stuff below all together. But today, let’s go through section by section and add commentay along the way. I did this once or twice before, so I know for sure that it’s a worse way to do it. But there is something like 175 of these Daily Notes posts throughout the season, so I can afford to waste a few.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
I’ll put my commentary in these blocks to distinguish it. I’ll even make it italics.
Tyler Anderson did that Tyler Anderson thing where he got 15 whiffs and ended up at the top of the algo board, but still pitched bad. Seven hits, five earnies.
And then Aaron Civale at #2! Lame day for pitching, apparently. Civale has a 26% GB% this year. That’s an incredible number. So low. Lefties have a 19% GB% against him. And he pitches in Miller Park (RIP to old ballpark names). There are going to be some really, really rough starts along the way.
Everything is flipped upside down here. The guys at the top pitched bad, and then Dustin May is dead last with his quality start against the Mets. He recorded just five whiffs and a bad 45.5% Strike%, but kept the ball away from the barrel after giving up the lead-off dingie to Lindor. He’s not someone you really need to care about SwStr% as much for. He’s made his career on throwing nasty sinkers that don’t usually miss the bat entirely, but they very rarely end up being hit effectively.
1. Tyler Anderson
2. Aaron Civale
3. Logan Webb
4. Paul Blackburn
5. Brady Singer
6. Max Meyer
7. Stephen Kolek
8. Jack Flaherty
9. German Marquez
10. Joe Ryan
11. Luis Severino
12. Jonathan Cannon
13. Dustin May
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
Logan Webb threw eight scoreless and added seven strikeouts to his tally. He’d be leading the league in innings again if the Red Sox weren’t doing insane stuff with Garrett Crochet. Crochet threw 112 pitches the other day, and he started an inning with 99 pitches already thrown.
Who does that? It would make sense to do that if you were the Angels and had Kyle Hendricks on the hill, or if it was some knuckleballer or something, or if you’re the Rockies and just completely out of arms. But the Red Sox pushing Crochet, a fireballer, in the first year of a huge contract, in the middle of the season. Wild, wild stuff. But we’re talking about Logan Webb here.
Webb isn’t averaging all that many pitches per game. He’s #8 in the league by my count.
Crochet 99.7
Wheeler 99.4
Skenes 98.6
Gore 98.4
Rodon 98.0
Sale 97.0
Severino 96.8
Webb 96.2
Luzardo 96.2
Nola 95.9
Webb is having maybe his best season. Underrated player.
1. Logan Webb (vs. SD): 28.4 Points
2. Jack Flaherty (vs. CWS): 20.5 Points
3. Aaron Civale (vs. CIN): 17.19 Points
4. Stephen Kolek (vs. SF): 15.76 Points
5. Paul Blackburn (vs. LAD): 14.85 Points
6. Dustin May (vs. NYM): 14.7 Points
7. German Marquez (vs. MIA): 14.65 Points
8. Hunter Dobbins (vs. LAA): 14.25 Points
9. Valente Bellozo (vs. COL): 11.55 Points
10. Ryan Zeferjahn (vs. BOS): 10.25 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
Nothing to add here besides pointing out that Max Meyer couldn’t get it done in the best possible matchup. He now has a 7.01 ERA with a 1.76 WHIP in his last 7 starts (beginning after that 14-strikeout gem against the Reds which makes no sense in retrospect). Meyer should be dropped promptly and never streamed again.
1. Tyler Anderson (LAA): 15 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
2. Brady Singer (CIN): 13 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
3. German Marquez (COL): 13 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
4. Aaron Civale (MIL): 12 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
5. Logan Webb (SF): 10 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
6. Jack Flaherty (DET): 10 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
7. Max Meyer (MIA): 10 Whiffs (77 Pitches)
8. Valente Bellozo (MIA): 9 Whiffs (46 Pitches)
9. Joe Ryan (MIN): 9 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
10. Jonathan Cannon (CWS): 9 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
Stephen Kolek has a 17% K% on the year, but a 3.47 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. So he’s made some decent starts. But he’s mixed in a few disasters. The game log is a pretty wild ride.
The old CGSO agains the Rockies and then shellackings against the Mariners and Marlins. I guess the lesson is - don’t start him against teams that start with M!
1. Jack Flaherty (DET): 48.5 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
2. Tyler Anderson (LAA): 48.4 Strike%, 35.5 Ball%
3. Logan Webb (SF): 48.0 Strike%, 30.4 Ball%
4. Stephen Kolek (SD): 46.9 Strike%, 37.8 Ball%
5. Hunter Dobbins (BOS): 46.7 Strike%, 30.0 Ball%
6. Aaron Civale (MIL): 46.5 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
7. Brady Singer (CIN): 46.4 Strike%, 39.2 Ball%
8. Joe Ryan (MIN): 46.4 Strike%, 36.1 Ball%
9. Bryse Wilson (CWS): 46.2 Strike%, 23.8 Ball%
10. Max Meyer (MIA): 45.5 Strike%, 29.9 Ball%
11. Dustin May (LAD): 45.5 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
12. Paul Blackburn (NYM): 44.2 Strike%, 36.4 Ball%
13. Jonathan Cannon (CWS): 43.5 Strike%, 47.1 Ball%
14. Luis Severino (OAK): 39.2 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%
15. German Marquez (COL): 37.6 Strike%, 43.0 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
I haven’t talked much about POUT this year. But it’s a good stat to track if you’re in a quality start league, or something like that. I streamed in Richard Fitts for this week because he had those five checkmarks, and boy was that a dumb decision. We got the kids ice cream on the boardwalk last night, so I was sitting there watching to see how Trea Baby was going to approach getting ice cream on 84% of his body mass, but in between licks I made the mistake of checking my phone and seeing “in plays, runs(s)” a few times right in that first inning. So that was a nice start to the week. But the bright side is that there’s only one way for my team’s ERA to go - and that’s DOWN!
But it allowed Hunter Dobbins to come in and throw five nice innings. Dobbins lost the job to Fitts, and who knows, maybe he’ll be back in that rotation after that showing last night. I bet he’s feeling pretty good about himself now. He probably thinks Fitts is an a-hole, and that he’s better and that he really showed everybody that last night.
1. Hunter Dobbins: 60 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.0 POUT
2. Logan Webb: 102 Pitches, 24 Outs, 4.25 POUT
3. Dustin May: 88 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.89 POUT
4. Paul Blackburn: 77 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.13 POUT
5. Bryse Wilson: 80 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.33 POUT
6. Aaron Civale: 86 Pitches, 16 Outs, 5.38 POUT
7. Jack Flaherty: 99 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.5 POUT
8. Max Meyer: 77 Pitches, 14 Outs, 5.5 POUT
9. Luis Severino: 97 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.71 POUT
10. Stephen Kolek: 98 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.76 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Nothing useful to talk about here, I don’t think.
Luis Severino's FF velo (30 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 94.6
Bryse Wilson's FC velo (18 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 86.7
Jonathan Cannon's FF velo (26 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 91.8
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Marquezis loving that curveball. And for good reason. It’s his only good pitch.
It’s a great pitch. It’s too bad the Rockies can’t like just trade his curveball to some other team. They could probably get a nice prospect.
German Marquez's CU usage (41.9%) up 14.9 points
Hunter Dobbins's SL usage (55.0%) up 24.3 points
Jonathan Cannon's FC usage (32.9%) up 11.2 points
Jonathan Cannon's FF usage (30.6%) up 17.0 points
Logan Webb's ST usage (40.2%) up 16.9 points
Luis Severino's ST usage (30.9%) up 11.8 points
Paul Blackburn's FC usage (39.0%) up 10.8 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Gavin Williams has been good of late, except for that Dodgers start. And he’s been tinking. There’s a sinker here now (very light usage) and the cutter usage has come up, as you can see by the bad plot here - the cutter is the green line:
It’s always good to see someone with a lot of talent who isn’t getting the results start to mess around with the pitch mix. Maybe there’s a solution in there somewhere that will send Williams to the potential we know he has.
Walker Buehler Slider: +24.7%
Lucas Giolito Slider: +24.0%
Gavin Williams Cutter: +23.5%
Brayan Bello Slider: -20.3%
German Marquez Curveball: +18.4%
Kyle Freeland Sinker: -18.1%
Lucas Giolito 4-Seam Fastball: -17.2%
Emerson Hancock 4-Seam Fastball: +16.2%
Brayan Bello Sweeper: +16.0%
Kyle Freeland 4-Seam Fastball: +16.0%
Colin Rea 4-Seam Fastball: -15.6%
Gunnar Hoglund 4-Seam Fastball: -15.5%
Kevin Gausman Split-Finger: +15.3%
Emerson Hancock Sinker: -14.7%
Jack Kochanowicz 4-Seam Fastball: -13.5%
Brayan Bello Sinker: +13.0%
Davis Martin Slider: -13.0%
Gavin Williams 4-Seam Fastball: -12.7%
Drew Rasmussen 4-Seam Fastball: +12.2%
Kris Bubic 4-Seam Fastball: -12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
CharlieFreakingMorton has been good lately, I didn’t see that coming. He has two straight qualbangers after being in the bullpen for a bit. 12 strikeouts in his last 12.2 innings. He’s gone heavy curveballs usage (42%), and that’s worked so far. I wouldn’t trust him. And I do think he’d still be in the bullpen if the Orioles had literally anybody else to make starts for them.
Tarik Skubal - 101 TBF, 36.2% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 80 TBF, 35.4% CSW%
Kris Bubic - 100 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Paul Skenes - 78 TBF, 34.8% CSW%
Ben Brown - 85 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 106 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 98 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 69 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 91 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Garrett Crochet - 102 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Dustin May shows here, and that’s pretty rare for him. But he’s at a 32% K% in his last four starts after adding five to the ledger last night. That’s not who May is - but it’s really good to see him with a K% above 24% - cause he’s usually been in the low 20’s.
What to do with Will Warren after that disaster on Saturday? I’m not confident in anything with this guy, but I am going to start him this week and see what we have. It feels kinda silly to judge a guy on a start against the Dodgers these days.
Tarik Skubal - 101 TBF, 38.6% K%
Will Warren - 74 TBF, 37.8% K%
Cade Povich - 68 TBF, 35.3% K%
Garrett Crochet - 102 TBF, 35.3% K%
Carlos Rodon - 69 TBF, 33.3% K%
Dylan Cease - 91 TBF, 33.0% K%
Dustin May - 93 TBF, 32.3% K%
Kris Bubic - 100 TBF, 32.0% K%
Robbie Ray - 100 TBF, 32.0% K%
Nick Pivetta - 69 TBF, 31.9% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
And here’s Warren again. It’s hard to not succeed with a K-BB% above 20%. That’s one of the fundamental rules here at MLB DW. If there’s a pitcher with a K-BB% above 20% over his last five or so starts, you freaking put them in your fantasy lineup. And if they suck and it all blows up in your face - you never blame yourself. You say things like “wellllllll my process was good”.
Tarik Skubal - 101 TBF, 36.6% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 102 TBF, 30.4% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 91 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Ben Brown - 85 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 93 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%
Will Warren - 74 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Paul Skenes - 78 TBF, 26.9% K-BB%
Nick Pivetta - 69 TBF, 26.1% K-BB%
Dustin May - 93 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 103 TBF, 25.2% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
The GB% leaderboard is usually a mixture of studs and duds. Ground balls are great, but they can’t standalone. You have to combine the ground balls with some level of K-BB% for them to really help. That’s what we see here. You have your studs in Valdez and Webb who combined that 60%+ GB% with strong K-BB%, and then you have the guys like Soriano and Pallante who can’t do much else well other than get the ball hit on the grass.
Jose Soriano - 101 TBF, 74.0% GB%
Framber Valdez - 111 TBF, 68.9% GB%
Logan Webb - 109 TBF, 62.8% GB%
David Peterson - 77 TBF, 60.4% GB%
Andre Pallante - 79 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Quinn Priester - 84 TBF, 58.8% GB%
Luis L. Ortiz - 70 TBF, 58.7% GB%
Stephen Kolek - 99 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Clay Holmes - 98 TBF, 58.1% GB%
Shane Baz - 94 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Quite possibly the most important list in all of these lists. The original MFQ. The first really good thing I did here, I think. And we see Lance McCullers Jr. here! He gets the Pirates tonight. Fire him up. But brace yourself for him to go like 4.1 innings because he walked five guys.
It’s quite enticing to see Edward Cabrera lowering his BB%. That’s been the problem for him dating the whole way back to when he was 12 years old. So it will take at least a couple of months of improved BB% for me to start believing it it. But he is down to 8.3% in four starts, a good beginning, at least.
Tarik Skubal - +2.3% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Charlie Morton - +5.3% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Spencer Schwellenbach - +4.4% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Paul Skenes - +4.7% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Matthew Liberatore - +2.9% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Tanner Bibee - +2.6% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Edward Cabrera - +5.5% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Ryan Yarbrough - +9.1% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Trevor Williams - +3.2% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Cal Quantrill - +4.0% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Eric Lauer - +5.4% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
I guess Christian Yelich is just fine after that injury on Sunday. He lifted two balls and got one of them out of the yard. Hunter Goodman continues to have enough big games to keep us interested in the fantasy game. But his 67% Contact% and .239 xBA aren’t positive signs for the future.
Three bangers for Kerry Carpenter, and he’s up to a .517 SLG with 13 dingers on the year. He’s even slugging .400 against lefties, although that comes with a 28% K%. But whatever, it would be good enough for me to have him starting everyday if I were the Tigers manager.
Matt Wallner is a sneaky add right now. He missed time to injury, but he’s back now and has three barrels in his last two games. He’s extra nice in OBP leagues, as we talked a lot about in the lead-up to the season.
Juan Soto (NYM) - 110.9mph - grounded_into_double_play
Mike Trout (LAA) - 110.0mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
More bad luck for Yainer Diaz. We mentioned that yesterday, I think. Pete Alonso and Bobby Witt Jr. have also hit some bad luck here of late. And Willson Contreras presence here gives us some hope that he’ll break out of this slump. It’s his second extended slump of the year, so maybe that’s just who he’ll be. Complete ass for 2-3 weeks, but then he’ll make up for it all with an elite stretch like we saw earlier.
Alright, dangit I’m out of time. The kids want to go for a bike ride and they’re tired of waiting for me. Maybe we’ll do this format again tomorrow but focus on the hitting side. Feedback is always appreciated.
