MLB Daily Notes - June 3
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis
Check out yesterday’s box scores here
The Daily Notes are the flagship resource of MLB Data Warehouse. Every morning, Jon breaks down the current goings on in the fantasy baseball world, and an automated daily report gets you up to date on key stats and trends. Become a paid subscriber at MLB Data Warehouse to get this unlocked in your inbox every morning!
The beach smacked yesterday. Way better weather. I’m re-invigorated by it now. I dug a hole in the sand and got a volleyball and me and my kids took turns trying to roll the ball into the hole. It was awesome.
And my kids went to some public zoo here in New Jersey and saw a “brown zebra”, which I don’t believe. I think they’re full of it and it was just a horse.
Your top ten hitters from yesterday:
The Pirates scored ten runs, so that was cool. Remember that three-team trade where the Pirates got Lowe, Mangum, and Montgomery for Mike Burrows while the Astros sent prospects to the Rays? Well the Pirates/Astros part of that trade was on display last night and it was big advantage BUCS.
Brandon Lowe: 3 run HR
Mangum: 4 hits, 2 steals
Burrows: 5.0IP 8H 5ER 6R 3K 5BB
So it’s pretty great being a Pirates fan this year. And today we have pretense to talk about Endy Rodriguez, a Pirates catcher who is getting more and more playing time with Joey Bart on the shelf and Henry Davis unable to hit.
Endy was a big prospect for the Pirates. Hit hit .323/.407/.590 wiht 25 bombs in the 2021 season. But then he had multiple injuries and surgeries and now he’s 26 with just 86 big league games played. He’s hitting .300/.500/.467 with a homer and two steals in 42 PAs this year, though. So there’s something going right for him. A .400 BABIP helps. His 38% Swing% shows his very passive approach at the plate, which will turn into walks. He puts up an 88% Zone Contact% with it, so that helps.
Not swinging much isn’t all that bad of an idea when you can make contact when you need to. And it seems like Endy can do that. I don’t think there’s much real power here as he’s now hit just four homers in 86 games, but I think we’ll see this guy play more and more now since he’s doing some things with the bat that Henry Davis clearly cannot.
Carson Benge is second on the list. He went yard twice in Seattle. His season line now:
→ .254/.320/.385, 6 HR, 9 SB
But if we look at the 150 PAs since he got acclimated:
→ .309/.368/.475, 5 HR, 3 SB
The MLB fScores on him:
I threw these on the bottom of the Hitter Profile dashboard a week or two ago. Pretty nice thing to check if you’re learning about a player. We see a good hit tool from Benge, with some speed, but a very low power score.
That power score will come up. The fScores change rapidly with rookies. Benge has a 104.2 EV90 on fly balls, which is pretty good. Hhis 10.2% Brl% is a god sign as well, and he’s hit a ball at 109.8mph. So there is 15-20 power here already. Plus the 19% attempt rate and nine steals on the bases. He’s a very good fantasy player right now.
If we go back to May 1st and check the player rater for outfielders:
That’s pretty sick! I drafted him in both of my main leagues and was smart enough to hold on through the very slow start he had.
Heriberto Hernández (MIA)
Two bombs from this guy. He’s at a .678 OPS this year with a 22% K%, a 9.6% BB%, a 10.3% Brl%, and a .369 xwOBA.
Nothing really stands out in his profile other than that .369 xwOBA, which is very god. His EVs are good, but not great. And he has made some real contact improvements with a 22% K% this year vs. 26% last year. A 4.3% HR% is pretty solid and he does have a high 21% stolen base attempt rate. So he’s actually doing some pretty interesting things.
But he hasn’t been playing. He’s started just four of the last 19 games.
Spencer Steer
Two bombs from Steer. He’s up to nine of those with three setals and a career-high .277 average.
He’s been solid. .270 xBA, .367 xwOB, 24.5% Air Pull%. He’s a guy who can maximize his talents, and we’re seeing him be a major part of this Reds lineup.
He’s ahead Freddie Freeman and Vlad Guerrero Jr. on the player rater at first base right now.
Paul Goldschmidt
This is one of the more surprising stories of the year. Goldy hitting .276/.364/.534 with a .386 xwOBA and seven homers in 132 PAs. He’s the league top OPS hitter against lefties this year (50 PA minimum):
The Yankees were awfully sharp to bring him back.
Luisangel Acuña
Three steals for little Acuna last night. He has 11 steals now and no homers and a .179 batting average.
I checked on which hitters are most dependent on steals and homers for their fantasy point scoring. I looked at every hitter with 100+ fantasy points scored. Made a home run worth 10 points and a steal worth five points. Then took the shares of the total. So here are your leaders for the steals being the highest percentage of their total points:
It’s Acuna at #1 with 33.5% of his points coming from those 11 steals. There are no surprises or interesting names on the list, we could’ve predicted most of this right.
For homers:
That’s just a list of dudes who have hit homers at a good rate without stealing bases. Not that interesting.
Luisangel Acuna is a terrible fantasy option, though. He’s hitting for a .230 xBA with a .262 xwOBA and a 2.3% Brl%. He’s a steals-only guy with a .230 OBP.
Jake Mangum
Mangum is a lot like Acuna in that he’s mostly a steals guy. But he’s on a tear right now with eight hits in his last three games. That has him up to a .303/.364/.349 slash line with a homer and ten steals.
That is much closer to valuable in fantasy leagues. We would take that happily if we could really believe in the batting average and the playing time. But he’s a part-time guy. I think the Pirates will want to get Esmerlyn Valdez back in that outfield before long. O’Hearn is back, so their outfield is typically set with Reynolds, Cruz, and O’Hearn. There’s very little room for Mangum to play every day.
Christian Yelich
Two hits and a steal from Yelich. He’s at .286/.350/.455 with four homers and a 6.6% Brl% now. Only a .215 xBA, though. His 61% GB% is ugly as ever and he’s benefited from a .389 BABIP.
He hit 29 bombs last year, but had a lower 10.3% Brl% and a pretty high HR/FB. So we weren’t really buying into that power surge. There’s also the fact that he rarely stays healthy and constantly has back issues.
It doesn’t seem like Yelich will age well as he’s now almost MY AGE. My back feels great though, I don’t know what kind of dumb stuff he’s doing to get himself into trouble all the time.
Yelich’s GB% is the highest of his career right now, and that’s not a great sign. But it’s been just 125 PAs since he missed a few weeks with those injuries.
I’d absolutely be looking to trade him if I had him.
Pitchers
Kyle Harrison - 5.67IP 4H 1ER 1R 12K 2BB
K well… I can’t really figure it out. And he crushed my DFS lineup last night at 70% ownership. I didn’t think he was worth that price. I was wrong.
He’s getting better and better. He’s actually throwing the heater a little bit harder, averaging a season-high 95.6 last night.
It’s a three-pitch mix with 59% usage on that fastball. And this is the thing I keep harping on about him being a sell high. How many guys at 95mph can successfully throw a fastball this much? Not many at all. But there’s something about the pitch that hitters can’t do anything with.
There are only eight pitchers with 400+ FF’s thrown and a Strike% above 55% on the pitch:
Harrison’s at 59%. So the fastball is elite. The slurve/change haven’t been dominant whiff-wise, but they haven’t gotten hit hard either.
I don’t know how to explain it, but Harrison now has a 25% K-BB%, so you can’t deny that he’s been a total ace. I’d still be looking to sell super high right now, though!
Noah Cameron - 7.0IP 1H 1ER 1R 8K 0BB
Cameron has really found the groove.
Last five starts: 2.89 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 25.9% K%, 5.6% BB%
He’s not getting a ton of whifs, but the deception and command are there and hitters have just a .202 xBA against him. It’s somewhat believable again. This is the kind of stuff we saw him do last year as wel, so it’s not new. He posted a 2.99 ERA in 138 innings. He’s up to 4.22 now, but it’s rapidly descending during this heater he’s on.
The pitch mix:
No pitch above a 50% Strike% or a 100 Stuff+ score. So he’s really got to hit his spots and keep guys off balance for it to work. That’s really limiting on him. You aren’t going to see him go out and dominate for two months straight, but he’s a big league pitcher who could probably help plenty of fantasy teams out there at just 69% ownership.
Nathan Eovaldi - 6.0IP 11H 4ER 4R 7K 1BB
11 hits, that’s pretty impressive! We really prefer to start these Rangers pitchers at home. But you like the seven strikeouts and he stranded plenty of runners to only give up four earned runs. His xBA last night was .310, which ain’t great, but a .476 BABIP shows you that he had some pretty poor luck. No problems starting Eovaldi the rest of the year, you’ve just gotta hope he stays healthy.
Grayson Rodriguez - 3.67IP 8H 8ER 8R 3K 3BB
So many people fell for this in DFS. Including myself. It’s so obvious in hindsight to not do that. But he was $6,500 against the Road Rockies, so I did think it was fine. But eight earned runs for the big man with a 3:3 K:BB. I think it’s pretty clear that he’s bad. A .490 xwOBA and a 0% K-BB% on the year now.
Jack Flaherty - 5.0IP 5H 0ER 0R 6K 2BB
This is a victory lap opportunity for me. I have real conviction on Jack Flaherty right now.
So I put my money where my mouth was and bet him heavily for under 9.5 H+ER+BB or whatever that market was. And won easily, baby!
Only eight whiffs and a 6:2 K:BB here, so it wasn’t his best work. But a .252 xwOBA allowed and no homers. He gave up basically nothing hard hit.
Since May 2nd (I would usually start at May 1st, but he had a bad start on May 1st, so we’re using May 2nd), his 24.8% K-BB% is tenth-best in baseball.
Mizzy 38%
Sanchez 29%
Woo 29%
Cease 28%
Ryan 28%
Sale 27%
Harrison 26%
Skenes 25%
Yamamoto 25%
Flaherty 25%
Everybody always wants to just talk themselves out of a good ole K-BB%. OoooOOo he’s TipPing! OhhHHh He juSt caNTt beE cOnsistTeNet in the sTRIke zoOOoOnee, ooOoO His advanced p-war-stuff-wake-shifted-adjusted-dos-gyration is bad!!! Screw you man, I’m a big, big Flaherty guy.
It was only five innings as they played it safe and called it quits after 90 pitches. But he got his first win of the season, leaving only Tanner Bibee as the lone pitcher with 11+ starts and no wins.