MLB Daily Notes - June 30
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis
Check out yesterday’s box scores here
The Daily Notes are the flagship resource of MLB Data Warehouse. Every morning, Jon breaks down the current goings on in the fantasy baseball world, and an automated daily report gets you up to date on key stats and trends. Become a paid subscriber at MLB Data Warehouse to get this unlocked in your inbox every morning!
ADVERTISING SPACE AVAILABLE. The Daily Notes get about 2,000 views per post, and I’m cheap!
I don’t know how far you guys scroll in the daily notes every day, but I ENCOURAGE you to scroll the whole way to the bottom if you’re looking for upgrades to your fantasy team’s lineup. I have this thing runny daily:
OPS Leaders - Last 2 Weeks - LOW OWNED HITTERS
Jake McCarthy - 39 PA, 1.174 OPS
Caleb Durbin - 38 PA, 1.104 OPS
Ryan Kreidler - 28 PA, 1.021 OPS
A.J. Ewing - 36 PA, 1.011 OPS
Lars Nootbaar - 28 PA, 0.986 OPS
Cole Young - 34 PA, 0.978 OPS
Jake Burger - 36 PA, 0.978 OPS
Victor Caratini - 31 PA, 0.964 OPS
Anthony Seigler - 36 PA, 0.962 OPS
Ty France - 27 PA, 0.961 OPS
That’ll give you some “hot” (if such a thing exists) hitters that you can probably go add right now.
Jake McCarthy has been awesome for the Rockies. A nice add for Colorado there, playing into that home park. What you want from your lineup playing half of your game in Coors is a bunch of dudes who get line drives into play. Coors isn’t the greatest park in the world for homers, the real park factor comes from the lower strikeout rates pitchers are able to generate and the huge outfield out there that turns a lot of singles into doubles/triples. And that’s who McCarthy is.
→ .301/.340/.493, 6 HR, 13 SB
That’s a very good fantasy player right there. His home run rate is up to 2.4%, which is still low, but it’s a lot higher than what he’d done in the last two years playing with the Diamonbacks.
McCarthy is hitting .319/.352/.560 at home, really taking advantage there.
Caleb Durbin hit another home yesterday. He has seven ont he year now, with six of those coming in June. He has a .325/.360/.614 slash in June with those six homers and five steals. He’s averaged 2.56 fantasy points per PA this month, that’s 9th-best in baseball. The six-homer month is fake, he’s not going to do that again with his low EVs, but he does have a decent 15% Air Pull% that turns some cheap fly balls into homers. And his K% has been elite the whole time. He’s just hitting the ball a lot better lately and turning that high ball in play rate into results.
We haven’t heard a ton from AJ Ewing, but he’s been good lately. And he’s over 150 PAs in the Majors now, which is often times when you see the guy really figure it out.
He’s had a good year overall with a .772 OPS now.
The skills are there. He hits the ball hard enough to believe in some homers, and he’s a base stealer.
Eight steals with a 28% attempt rate, and that’s with a very high .363 OBP - so the steals are coming (8 in 45 games is good for a 29-steal pace over 162 games).
The strikeout rate is 24%with an 86% Zone-Contact%. And that’s a 14% K% over the last 70 plate appearances. He’s been chasing a little bit less. He’s started 8 of the last 9 games and he’s been hitting 5th-6th. So everything looks pretty nice for this guy to be a nice fantasy contributor. The upside is way up there too with the skills he has. He can be a 23% K% guy with an 8% Brl% and a bunch of steals.
Jake Burger is the last man standing in the Rangers lineup. They just lost Langford and now they might see Nimmo go on the IL. Seager’s healthy, but how long can that last?
Burger: .257/.320/.443, 26% K%, 9.7% Brl%
In June: .833 OPS, 24% K%, 9.7% Brl%
It’s a lower barrel rate than yo’ud like to see. He’s hitting a lot of ground balls. Which is exactly what a high-K, high-bat speed guy should be doing! But easier said than done.
Burger is a decent power add in deep leagues, but I don’t think you’ll get a ton from him the rest of the way. It’s so brutal to hit in Texas, and Burger’s never been consistent.
So you can check that automated report daily to see who else pops up. You’ll probably find some very useful fantasy bats to use there.
AARON NOLA - 4.33IP 8H 7ER 8R 5K 2BB
Wild start here. 23 whiffs and eight runs on eight hits. The Pirates got to him in the 5th. That was an incredible game, probably my favorite of the year. The Phillies went up 5-0 on Ashcraft in the first two innings. At that point, I turned the TV off and cleaned the kitchen. That’s what I do. When the Pirates are getting crushed or not playing, the kitchen gets cleaned. I hate a messy kitchen, hate it so much. But as I was cleaning it, I saw Esmerlyn Valdez go yard AGAIN and the Pirates erased the league so fast. The bullpen tried to give another one away, but Endy Rodriguez added a 9th inning bomb to leave no doubt about it.
Check out these two dudes:
Esmerlyn is up to a 1.138 OPS with six homers in 50 PAs, just a ridculous home run rate. However, it’s a 38% K% with a 59% Contact%. There’s going to be some real rough slumps coming. I think he’ll improve in that contact rate stuff, but at this point he might just be up there trying to hit tanks. I’m enjoying the long balls while they last.
I think you can add him wherever you’re looking for some homers. The Pirates are certainly going to have to keep playing him in all matchups. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if they bench him tonight against Cristopher Sanchez just so he doesn’t get discouraged or something taking an 0/4 against an elite pitcher. Probably not, though, his best skill is crushing lefties.
As for Endy Rodriguez, he’s making a case to be a top 12 fantasy catcher.
→ .271/.400/.482, 22% K%, 18% BB%, 13% Brl%, .380 xwOBA
The EVs are good overall (105 EV90), but his fly balls haven’t been hit nearly as hard (100 EV90). The air pull rate is very high at 23%. So maybe he can hit a few homers a month while getting on base a ton with his low swing rate and decent K%.
Back to Nola though. I was looking at his curveball grade last night, and it’s sick.
That’s probably the best curveball in the game. However, the rest of his pitch mix is pretty terrible. So if he can’t throw the curveball, or if hitters know it’s coming and just let it pass by, he doesn’t do well, as we’ve seen.
George Kirby - 8.0IP 7H 2ER 2R 7K 1BB
He got to the big strikeout day against the Angels. Seven isn’t overwhelming, but he was efficient to get through eight innings and had a nice outing.
He has been throwing sweepers like crazy lately and that pitch has a 13.4% SwStr% and .244 xwOBA. So he’s adjusting a bit and it’s been mostly working.