MLB Daily Notes - June 4
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis
Check out yesterday’s box scores here
The Daily Notes are the flagship resource of MLB Data Warehouse. Every morning, Jon breaks down the current goings on in the fantasy baseball world, and an automated daily report gets you up to date on key stats and trends. Become a paid subscriber at MLB Data Warehouse to get this unlocked in your inbox every morning!
Is Paul Skenes even good? I need to do one of those tweets like I did with Acuna to get this guy back.
→ 4.67IP 7H 3ER 3R 7K 1BB
He now has a 3.21 ERA and he hasn’t WON a game since May 12th. The Pirates haven’t won any of his last four starts, which shouldn’t be allowed to happen. Last night wasn’t really Skenes’ fault, the bullpen blew a huge lead late after I went to sleep, so my day started pretty poorly seeing that. Also seeing that my double up lineup faded out of the cash and the cold streak continued.
Skenes has a 25% K-BB% and a 2.36 SIERA, so he’s still just fine obviously. There’s nothing wrong here. It’s a .193 xBA with a .266 BABIP.
The one thing that isn’t great is that he’s throwing 4.12 pitches per batter faced. So he’s not been efficient in that way.
For context. Kyle Harrison has the most pitches thrown per batter (for starters with 10+ GS) at 4.31. The average is around 3.9. The lowest in the league is Nick Martinez at 3.39.
That data is on the main pitcher tab:
The top of the SP sheet:
Studs being studs. Nine more strikeouts for Chase Burns, who was the proper DFS cash play instead of Skenes. Cristopher Sanchez finally gave up a run to end his streak. His 1.46 ERA on the year is second-best in the league. Which is crazy to say that a 1.46 ERA wouldn’t be the best. Freaking Cam Schlittler is sitting there with a 1.89 ERA and he’s behind four other dudes.
Freddy Peralta had a good one.
Payton Tolle was awesome again. 17.2% SwStr%, 31.3% Ball%. That’s really not easy to do. Those are the foundation points of JA ERA. And Tolle’s 3.16 JA ERA is really nice. The league average JA ERA for qualified starters is 4.11. Tolle’s behind only Misiorowski, deGrom, Sanchez, Eovaldi, Burns, and Skubal.
He’s really, really good.
Robert Gasser - 5.0IP 5H 1ER 1R 5K 1BB
This was his season debut in the Majors. They were kinda building him back up in AAA or something. But now it seems like Logan Henderson will be out for awhile longer, so they need some help.
In AAA: 26.2 IP, 3.37 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 33% K%, 7% BB%, 0.34 HR/9
Those are really good peripherals, bro. He had a 2.17 JA ERA down there in AAA. The pitch mix he showed us last night:
Nothing doing in the STuff+ department, but this is a lefty throwing five pitches between 10% and 30% usage. That’s interesting enough in itself. I kinda doubt he has stuff that will get strikeouts in the Majors. But he’s an interesting add right now. The Brewers seem to know how to get the most of their young arms.
Taj Bradley - 4.67IP 7H 4ER 4R 5K 5BB
He’s been super wild since getting back from the IL. It’s a 14.5% BB% in those three starts. But he’s still getting whiffs (14.8% SwStr%) and strikeouts (29% K%).
MacKenzie Gore - 4.67IP 9H 4ER 4R 5K 3BB
He is annoying and sucks more often than he’s good. But sometimes he’s good. But the bottom line is a 14% K-BB% with a 4.10 JA ERA this year.
So he’s not a pitcher you really want to start. Unless he’s at home… he has a 22% K-BB% there with a 2.69 SIERA.
Walbert Urena - 6.0IP 3H 3ER 3R 7K 3BB
Pretty much exactly what we projected for him.
Max Meyer - 7.0IP 2H 1ER 1R 7K 2BB
More success from Meyer. He’s up to an 18% K-BB% with a 3.54 JA ERA. Same story. Dominating with the slider and sweeper at combined 52% usage, but when he throws the fastball he gets in trouble with a .345 xwOBA on that pitch and just a 6.4% SwStr%.
Spencer Arrighetti - 4.0IP 6H 4ER 4R 3K 1BB
There it was! He gave up a grand slam in the fourth, and that was all of the damage he allowed. But six hits, a walk, and a hit batsman. I watched the start. He threw an insane number of curveballs. 45% of his pitches were curves. 58% of his pitches to lefties were curves. He did not want to throw the fastball, and for good reason. It’s a terrible pitch. And that’s the one he gave up a grand slam on.
His curveball is prett good, but throwing it more than 40% of the time just isn’t a recipe for success. The heater is a huge issue for him, and a lot of luck fell apart on that one beautiful swing from Henry Davis. Really annoying to me that they blew that lead.
Logan Webb - 7.0IP 1H 0ER 0R 4K 1BB
We did pretty nice in The Profit Plan post yesterday. And we were on the Webb bounce-back, betting the Brewers to not homer. And Webb and the Giants did better than that - shutting out the Brewers.
Jut eight whiffs for Webb but a .165 xwOBA allowed. Vintage Webby there, I think he’s #back.
Gerrit Cole - 5.33IP 6H 4ER 4R 2K 1BB
We were also on the Kyle Manzardo play because it’s pretty clear that Cole is going to give up some tanks to lefties this year.
He’s now down to a 21% K% with a 9.8% SwStr%. The whiffs are only there on the slider. His fastball has a 19% GB%. So it’s a low 8.3% SwStr% and an unbelievably low GB%. That means homers.
But the FB velo is there and the slider seems to be really good, so I think he’ll be pretty good this year. You’re just going to have the 3-4 ER starts coming from the homers allowed.
Nick Martinez - 4.0IP 9H 6ER 6R 1K 1BB
Nice regression there for N-Mart as well. Before this start he had a .276 BABIP with a 7% HR/FB. Now it’s a .285 BABIP with a 9% HR/FB.
He has a pathetic 14.4% K% this year. So that can’t work.