MLB Daily Notes - March 21st
A look at what we saw in the Seoul series, and another look at what's happening in Spring Training
Things are really getting rolling here. Since we have a couple of regular season games in the books, I am now able to publish the new versions of all the dashboards and Excel files. So I got started on that this morning, there are new and updated links in the Resource Glossary, as well as below the paywall in this post. That page is your hub to get to everything I offer, it is where I keep all the links and other explanations and needed things. It’s a good page to bookmark if you’re a paid subscriber.
Seoul Series
A 5-2 Dodgers win on Wednesday and then a 15-11 Padres win this morning. We really didn’t get any good pitching performances.
Glasnow: 5 IP, 2 ER, 3 K, 4 BB, 16.9% SwStr%, 44.2% Strike%, 39.0% Ball%
Darvish: 3.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K, 3 BB, 8.3% SwStr%, 43.1% Strike%, 41.7% Ball%Musgrove: 2.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K, 2 BB, 10.0% SwStr%, 41.7% Strike%, 36.7% Ball%
Yamamoto: 1.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K, 1 BB, 11.6% SwStr%, 41.9% Strike%, 46.5% Ball%
The best thing to do here is forget this ever happened. We are dealing with one outing, which is always incredibly random, but layer on top of that the fact that it’s the first game of the year after a short/strange spring training and it’s in a different country.
Things are a bit more interesting for Yamamoto. Since we had never seen him in the Majors before, we have no baseline for him to fall back on. All we have seen from him now is this one start where he had no command of the ball whatsoever. If your league hasn’t drafted yet, you will be getting a discount on him this weekend, I think that’s pretty clear. It’s hard to say with confidence that you should jump at it, because the price was really high before, and we still don’t know who this guy will be in the Major Leagues. My new approach would be to have more interest rather than less. I didn’t care too much for the draft cost before this, but if he falls back to being a guy you can bag as an SP3, I think you should do that. Even as an SP2, he’s pretty enticing. He did not have command issues in Japan, and it’s not like we use a completely different mound or ball or something in the Majors that he has to adjust to. The command should be fine, so that’s my Yamamoto take.
Jackson Merrill is the other guy we got a first look at, and he had a mixed debut. He racked up five hard-hit balls in these two games but did strike out three times today. It’s really good to see the exit velocity in the 100’s, that’s my main takeaway. I project him as a good contact bat (19% K%), and so does The Bat X (17%). Pairing a sub-20% K% with a good to great hard-hit rate will make for a nice fantasy player. He is hitting at the very bottom of the lineup early on, but with some success, he should move up. The Padres were hitting Jake Cronenworth #3, so it’s not like they have a locked-in juggernaut lineup, even at the top of things.
We also got saves from Evan Phillips and Robert Suarez. This is the most clear the Dodgers bullpen has been in terms of closers since Jansen has left. Phillips should get the bulk of the save opportunities, so that’s a pretty great situation. We saw the Padres use all of their lefties in that first game to go after Ohtani and Muncy, and that resulted in Yuki Matsui pitching in the sixth inning. Suarez is clearly the guy to have in that bullpen for me, but you will probably see a handful of guys get saves as the year progresses.
Gambling
this is a long rant that most people don’t care about so feel free to skip it
The Ohtani and translator debacle gets us all talking about sports gambling. I am not going to speculate about the story or anything like that, but it’s just another example of this sports betting stuff having some serious externalities. The reason we’re talking about this is that the US Federal Government was investigating illegal sports books. I’m guessing they have always done that, but these days with it being legal in most states, the government has a big incentive to make sure everybody who is betting is using one of the legal sports books that they get to tax.
I have always been a little conflicted on what to do with sports betting. I have done some of it myself, but it’s never any significant amount of money and if you asked me if I want my two boys growing up and getting into it I would say absolutely not. I was once a young man, so I know the allure of sports gambling well. It’s a lot of fun and can be quite addicting, and that’s a scary combination especially when it’s now so easy to risk more money than you should be.
So there’s some hypocrisy on my part since one of the resources I have here gives player prop sports betting picks using my projections, so I am encouraging something I don’t think is good for society overall. My view of the world is that very few things are inherently good or bad, it’s all about how you use them. Everything in moderation. I believe it’s safe to say that the vast majority of people using my stuff know what they are doing and are being responsible. So for 2024, I have decided to keep the player prop sheet going, but to make sure I’m only recommending lines that I feel are truly positive. I’m never going to be one of these guys hyping up the model and telling people they will definitely win money if they follow along. Even though the walk props were in the green last year (by a good margin), that doesn’t mean they will be this year. Sportsbooks can tighten up their pricing overnight and get rid of the edges.
I will also be sure to tell you what props do not work. Game OU’s, money lines, home run props, steals props, you can’t make money on those - so my recommendation is to avoid them entirely. And if you’re a 22-year-old kid who isn’t in a comfortable financial position, just steer clear of all of this, it’s way more risk than it’s worth to you.
The whole thing is an interesting political question. Most people seem to be pretty libertarian about it, saying that you should have the freedom to do what you want as long as you aren’t hurting anybody else. There’s another view that the government should encourage good things, discourage bad things, and even go as far as banning things that are very bad for the individual. I’ve gone back and forth personally. There are some things that are so bad for people that I do think the government should outright ban or try to stop. But if there’s widespread disagreement on that, then you can’t really go forth with it since we don’t want any percent of the population cramming down their ideas on the rest (although this will inevitably happen).
What is clear is that our government does not have the individual’s well being in mind. Or at least that is not their primary concern. They are more than fine letting young men ruin their lives with gambling as long as they can take a cut of the losses. Government is necessary, but any time humans get a lot of power it’s going to get ugly. And the further away from set moral standards we get as a collective society, the uglier things get on this front. I have more to say, but I’ll stop here. The bottom line is that the responsibility is on the individual. Thing long-term. Recognize what is good and pursue it. Recognize what is bad an avoid it… as best as you can.
Spring Standouts
Giancarlo Stanton went deep three times yesterday, all of it Marco Gonzales. It’s rare to see a hitter even face the same pitcher three times in a game, much less homer off of him three times. From my quick checking, that did not happen at all last year, but did happen once in 2022 when Yordan Alvarez took Adrian Martinez deep three times on September 16th.
Stanton’s spring:
39 PA, .314/.385/.714, 4 HR, 13% K%, 7.7% BB%
So that’s a good spring, but before yesterday the SLG was just at .406, so you can see how flimsy spring stats are. If you draft(ed) Stanton, he’s a guy you want to start every week while he’s healthy, because the guy is still going to get his dingers.
Wyatt Langford also homered yesterday, and it was his fifth. He’s now slashing .378/.462/.756 with a 25% K% and an 11.5% BB%. Very good stuff, it will be fun to see what he’s able to do in real life MLB games. I still wouldn’t draft him near his current ADP, but that’s just me!
Miguel Andujar update: he has a 1.110 OPS with five homers and zero strikeouts in 43 PAs. I’m not sure how the Athletics don’t make him an everyday starter at this point. That doesn’t mean he’s useful for fantasy, but he could be!
There are eight hitters this spring with a sub-10% K% and multiple homers in 35+ PAs, here they are:
But let’s get into some pitchers, they are much more interesting in spring.
Eight SPs have faced at least 50 batters this spring with a K-BB% above 25%
The biggest story of the spring in my book is A.J. Puk. He was not on my radar in the lead-up to drafts, but he sure is now. He’s clearly in the rotation, and is probably their best healthy pitcher right now. If he can handle a starter’s workload, it seems like he’s a very useful fantasy pitcher at worst. He should be owned!
I also like to see Kutter Crawford here. He’s one of the guys I have always liked, and it’s nice to see him get off on the right foot.
I’m much less convinced on the top two there with Jack Flaherty and Patrick Corbin. They both have long histories of being poopy now. I’m more willing to believe Flaherty can have a good season than Corbin, but I will have a close eye on both in their first few starts of the season. I ended up with Flaherty in the Substack league because it’s a pretty deep one and I was desperate for some strikeouts, so I’m hoping for the best there.
It’s freaking noon now, this meeting that was supposed to last 15 minutes took 90, so I’m all grumpy now and I need to move on.
The Notes
I can now put out the normal structure of the daily notes since I have Statcast data in the tank. Today’s game is not included, and none of the below is very interesting, but this is what you’ll get every day. You’ll get quite a bit more than this, because about half this stuff doesn’t even work until we have multiple weeks of games in the bank, but here you go, the first run!
Maybe next Friday, in the first full version, I’ll go through what all of this stuff means, but for now it’s just a preview of what is to come!
Pitchers
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Yu Darvish (vs. LAD): 11.26 Points
2. Tyler Glasnow (vs. SD): 9.65 Points
3. Daniel Hudson (vs. SD): 7.65 Points
4. Evan Phillips (vs. SD): 4.25 Points
5. Ryan Brasier (vs. SD): 4.25 Points
6. Enyel De Los Santos (vs. LAD): 4.25 Points
7. Yuki Matsui (vs. LAD): 2.91 Points
8. Jeremiah Estrada (vs. LAD): 2.45 Points
9. Joe Kelly (vs. SD): 1.65 Points
10. Wandy Peralta (vs. LAD): 1.05 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Tyler Glasnow (LAD): 13 Whiffs (77 Pitches)
2. Yu Darvish (SD): 6 Whiffs (72 Pitches)
3. Daniel Hudson (LAD): 4 Whiffs (19 Pitches)
4. Enyel De Los Santos (SD): 2 Whiffs (11 Pitches)
5. Jeremiah Estrada (SD): 2 Whiffs (26 Pitches)
6. Ryan Brasier (LAD): 2 Whiffs (11 Pitches)
7. Wandy Peralta (SD): 2 Whiffs (19 Pitches)
8. Yuki Matsui (SD): 2 Whiffs (11 Pitches)
9. Evan Phillips (LAD): 1 Whiffs (12 Pitches)
10. Jhony Brito (SD): 1 Whiffs (9 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Tyler Glasnow (LAD): 44.2 Strike%, 39.0 Ball%
2. Yu Darvish (SD): 43.1 Strike%, 41.7 Ball%
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Yu Darvish's CU velo (12 pitches) DOWN -2.8mph to 73.3
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 20 TBF, 29.9% CSW%
Yu Darvish - 16 TBF, 22.5% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Yu Darvish - 16 TBF, 18.8% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 20 TBF, 15.0% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Yu Darvish - 16 TBF, 6.2% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 20 TBF, -5.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 20 TBF, 53.8% GB%
Yu Darvish - 16 TBF, 36.4% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
None
Multiple Barrels
None
New Max Launch Velos
Luis Campusano, Yesterday: 110.1 Previous High: 107.8
Hardest Hit Balls
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) - 119.2mph - nan
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) - 112.3mph - single
Luis Campusano (SD) - 110.1mph - force_out
Jurickson Profar (SD) - 107.6mph - nan
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) - 106.7mph - field_out
Jackson Merrill (SD) - 106.0mph - nan
Jackson Merrill (SD) - 105.7mph - field_out
James Outman (LAD) - 105.6mph - field_out
Teoscar Hernandez (LAD) - 105.3mph - field_out
Will Smith (LAD) - 105.2mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
nothing here yet
Bottom 10
nothing here yet
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Freddie Freeman - 4 PA, 1 BIP, 1 Brls, 100.0 Brl%
Jake Cronenworth - 4 PA, 2 BIP, 1 Brls, 50.0 Brl%
Jackson Merrill - 3 PA, 3 BIP, 1 Brls, 33.3 Brl%
Enrique Hernandez - 3 PA, 1 BIP, 0 Brls, 0.0 Brl%
Max Muncy - 5 PA, 1 BIP, 0 Brls, 0.0 Brl%
Will Smith - 5 PA, 3 BIP, 0 Brls, 0.0 Brl%
Tyler Wade - 3 PA, 1 BIP, 0 Brls, 0.0 Brl%
Teoscar Hernandez - 5 PA, 3 BIP, 0 Brls, 0.0 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 5 PA, 5 BIP, 0 Brls, 0.0 Brl%
Mookie Betts - 4 PA, 4 BIP, 0 Brls, 0.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Freddie Freeman - 4 PA, 0.686 xwOBA
Max Muncy - 5 PA, 0.46 xwOBA
Xander Bogaerts - 4 PA, 0.443 xwOBA
Tyler Wade - 3 PA, 0.443 xwOBA
Shohei Ohtani - 5 PA, 0.42 xwOBA
Mookie Betts - 4 PA, 0.401 xwOBA
James Outman - 5 PA, 0.401 xwOBA
Jackson Merrill - 3 PA, 0.362 xwOBA
Enrique Hernandez - 3 PA, 0.353 xwOBA
Ha-Seong Kim - 4 PA, 0.336 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Campusano - 4 PA, 6 Swings, 100.0 Cont%
Manny Machado - 4 PA, 3 Swings, 100.0 Cont%
Gavin Lux - 5 PA, 6 Swings, 100.0 Cont%
James Outman - 5 PA, 5 Swings, 100.0 Cont%
Shohei Ohtani - 5 PA, 8 Swings, 100.0 Cont%
Mookie Betts - 4 PA, 10 Swings, 100.0 Cont%
Jackson Merrill - 3 PA, 8 Swings, 87.5 Cont%
Freddie Freeman - 4 PA, 9 Swings, 77.8 Cont%
Will Smith - 5 PA, 8 Swings, 75.0 Cont%
Teoscar Hernandez - 5 PA, 11 Swings, 72.7 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Shohei Ohtani - 1 Attempts (1 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Shohei Ohtani - 1 Attempts (1 steals)
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Jackson Merrill - 3 PA, 0.0 K%, 33.3 Brl%
There is a ton more stuff that will be in here once we get into the season. As I said above, a lot of the sections depend on there being several weeks of games completed. And there will be minor league stuff here too once those seasons begin. So bear with me.
Most of the real juicy stuff during the regular season will be behind the paywall. That’s not true today, but the links to the new dashboards are there - so bookmark those if you’re a paid sub. And if you’re reading for free, I hope you sign up and come along for the ride for the next six months. I’m very excited about the season, just one more week until things really, really get going. I will talk to you later!