MLB Daily Notes - March 29
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Ryan Pepiot and Kyle Freeland got us started yesterday, and both were great.
Pepiot: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 8 K, 1 BB, 18.8% SwStr%, 31.8% Ball%
Freeland: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 7 K, 0 BB, 17.9% SwStr%, 20.9% Ball%
That’s a ton of strikes from Freeland. I do not think he’s anybody to use for fantasy, but maybe it’s an early sign of this Rays lineup being pretty exploitable.
I do think Pepiot should be universally owned and started, and right now, he’s not. I mean he didn’t make any NFBC leagues, but there’s about a third of Yahoo leagues out there where he’s available. I’d grab him if available.
The best thing we saw yesterday was the 52% Strike% on four-seamers and an overall 32% Ball%.
He has not always been the best command pitcher, he’s gotten it done with the great fastball he has. If he’s going be landing changeups nad sliders for strikes and whiffs like he did yesterday, he’s going to be in for a massive breakout season.
Hold your horses here though, this was a matchup with the Rockies.
Jack Leiter is someone to keep a close eye on early on this year. His line was good:
5 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 4 K, 1 BB, 82 pitches
But that’s the end of the good news.
14.6% SwStr%, 41.5% Strike%, 40.2% Ball%
Remember that we are looking for strike rates above 47%. That doesn’t mean you have to do that every single time, but it’s tough to see a Strike% this low.
Leiter’s stuff makes him tough to hit, so he skated by here as nobody was able to get the big hit off of him (.289 xwOBA). But he did not show good command at all, and that’s the thing we need to see from him. I wouldn’t be getting excited about Leiter.
Tylor Megill is another one of these potential breakout SPs we’re monitoring early on. He started his season off in Houston and did this:
5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 6 K, 1 BB, 13.0% SwStr%, 36.4% Ball%
It was nothing spectacular, but that works.
Lots of four-seamers, but it’s a good pitch for him so that will work. Very few of those got into play, which was probably a good thing for him. The 49% Strike% is fine, but the 44% Ball% is bad. Seems like he wasted a few too many there. The slider was great when he used it, but just 22%?
He could benefit from a few more sliders, I’d say. The way that he’ll be of fantasy use is by getting a bunch of strikeouts and avoiding giving up too many long balls. As we’ve seen over and over again, pitchers who rely on four-seamers and sliders tend to give up more homers. And that’s okay, we can deal with some homers. Megill’s other issue is that he’s had a higher walk rate so far. You don’t want to pair walks and homers.
That start was enough for me to hold him if I had him. His next start should come against the Blue Jays, and that’s a pretty good matchup.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto led the day with 17 whiffs and 10 strikeouts, but he gave up five hits, two walks, and two runs, so his day was over after five innings.
The Dodgers went to 4-0 in 10 innings with a huge bottom of the 10th. They used Kirby Yates in the seventh inning. I guess it’s fair to say I was wrong for saying he was the best Dodgers reliever to draft during draft season. It’s going to be a big mix and match there. I don’t think anybody in that bullpen is reliable for saves, but it’s a different story for holds leagues.
Mookie Betts also went deep twice, including a walk-off three-run daddy. So the guy can still bomb it even at 160 pounds.
That game-winner was off of Beau Brieske. That Tigers bullpen situation is also messy. They used Tommy Kahnle in the first high-leverage spot, and then Brieske came for the tenth and gave up five runs while getting one out. I’m not sure if the Tigers will punish Brieske for that or if they’ll just forget about it, but for now I’d say those two are the guys for saves in Detroit.
More on all of that and other bullpen situations in the waiver wire piece coming out today.
Kevin Gausman made his debut, and he had the same problem as he did last year.
The four-seamer was dominant (69% Strike% is ridiculous), but the splitter wasn’t there. Hitters just didn’t swing at it. He’s a one-pitch guy when the splitter isn’t working, and he’s had a lot of trouble with that pitch dating back to last year.
The solid four-seamer may be enough to get him by until that splitter comes back, but he’s not going to be a great pitcher without it. And maybe it won’t ever get back anywhere near 2022-2023 levels. I think Gausman is a very risky guy to hold this year.
I don’t know why I let the model talk me into the Tanner Houck thing. It was all over his strikeouts, but he pitched very poorly:
5.2 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 2 K, 3 BB, 9.0% SwStr%, 40.4% Strike%, 38.2% Ball%
I’m not a fan of Houck. I didn’t draft him at all. I just don’t think the strikeout ability is there. The way he got it done last year was with a low walk rate and a bunch of ground balls. If you drafted him, I wouldn’t drop him after this, but just know that the ceiling is pretty capped.
And yeah, I think the days of Charlie Morton being useful for fantasy are long gone.
3.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 K, 1 BB, 11.2% SwStr%, 42.5% Strike%, 40% Ball%
He went 40% four-seamer. That’s uncommon for him, he’s usually leading with the curveball.
I think you’ll see more curveballs in the future. But I wouldn’t want to start Morton at any point this year.
On offense, the standouts:
Oneil Cruz hit a bomb and stole a bag on his way to a big game. The Pirates have now stolen eight bags in two games.
Eugenio Suarez homered twice. The D’Backs were in a great spot against Taillon, and they took advantage of it. Suarez is a notorious slow-starter, but maybe not this year? I don’t know. I didn’t draft him at all, but he might homer himself into the top five at 3B. There’s not a ton to like at the position.
Dillon Dingler notably started the second game of the year for the Tigers at catcher and hit a home run. He’s behind Jake Rogers on the depth chart, but he’s clearly the better hitter. He smashed in the minors, and him getting a start in the second game might suggest a split with Rogers. That could make this guy sneaky in two-catcher leagues. Check out some of the minor league stats here:
Luke Jackson got the save for the Rangers. He had a rough outing on Opening Day, but it was a vote of confidence putting him back in there to guard a three-run lead against the Braves. And he got the job done. The pitch mix doesn’t look very goo at this point, so you could be in for some rough outings:
But if you’re just looking for saves, he seems to be a top-25 guy right now.
That will do it for the notes. I’ll get the waiver wire targets piece out, but I’m not going to do any slate previews or anything else on weekends.
The last few days have been a bit overwhelming, so I probably need to ease off of some stuff. I’ve never felt overwhelmed before, and I didn’t like it! But it could just be that the season is just getting going and I’ve had a lot of catching up to do to get everything running smoothly again. We’ll see what happens.