MLB Daily Notes - March 31
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
You may have noticed that there was no daily notes article out yesterday morning. I have decided to give myself Sundays off this year. Through these few years of doing this, I have added more and more stuff to my plate constantly, and I’m about topped out, I think.
There’s a lot to do every morning to get the projections going and checked, and to make sure the other automation stuff is working. What I don’t want to be doing is sitting on my computer all Sunday morning. So you won’t be getting daily notes on Sundays this year. The projections will always run, I’ll never take a day off of that, so don’t worry there.
That does leave me with a lot to catch up on! So let’s get into the standout pitchers. We are searching for breakout SPs early on.
Friday Night
Jeffrey Springs
I did cover a lot of SPs in the Saturday morning daily notes, but the one guy I missed was Springs. He dominated the Mariners in Seattle.
83 pitches, 20.5% SwStr%, 53% Strike%, 34% Ball%
That isn’t the toughest thing to do, but it’s a reminder that Springs is very capable. There are some questions about his potential workload, but the command is great and his changeup is deadly. You’re going to get some solid work out of him this year; he should be owned in 12-teamers, I’d say.
Reynaldo Lopez
This was bad news. Lopez gave up nine hits and struck out one in five innings.
94 pitches, 3.2% SwStr%, 38% Strike%, 38% Ball%
He had a brutal spring as well. The guy doesn’t seem right to me. Braves fans on Twitter were real quick to tell me he was tipping pitches and making other excuses for him. I mean maybe. Despite how lucky he was last season, we do have to admit that he was a good pitcher. There’s a good shot he bounces back from this. It was good to see the fastball almost at 96 on average in that start. There is hope. But those numbers are horrible. You don’t see a SwStr% below 4% and as many balls as strikes very often. If I had Reynaldo (I don’t), I’d start him next time, but I’d be pretty scared. And I don’t think I’d hold him for long if things continue to look this rough.
Check the notes from Saturday morning to get more on those Friday SPs.
Saturday
Jesus Luzardo
Luzardo could not have started his Phillies career much better.
5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 11 SO, 2 BB, 1 HR
He even got the win, so it was a positive real-life outcome as well.
95 pitches, 18.9% SwStr%, 56.8% Strike%, 33.7% Ball%
The best thing to see there is the low ball rate. He threw the sweeper in the zone a ton. That might not have exactly been intentional, but it worked. He also featured five pitches above a 10% usage:
High fastball velo with a bunch of other weapons from a deceptive lefty. This could be a huge season for Luzardo. The guy has always had upside, but walks, homers, and injuries have kept him away from fantasy glory.
There will be valleys with the peaks. You see that 56% GB% there, that’s a very good thing to see, but I don’t really believe it. He’s going to give up some homers, and you’ll probably see the inconsistent command and therefore performance that we have long seen from the guy.
But there’s also the chance that the Phillies will unlock something in him and he’ll go out there and get consistent results. I’m not sure what will happen, but I do know that Luzardo should be universally rostered right now.
Zack Littell
He dominated the Road Rockies. I don’t want to react to that, but I do have to say that the outing was great. He was the DFS play of the day for sure, but I’m not looking to add him in 10 or 12-team leagues. He’s solid, but the strikeout rate is going to be around 20%, and he’s not a guy that usually gets deep into games. The Rays are pretty careful about sending these guys out to face the lineup a third time. Littell is a streamer.
Spencer Schwellenbach
I can’t possibly hit every SP that pitched these last two days, so I’m picking my spots. I just wanted to let you know that Schwelly had a strong 13.3% SwStr% and a nice result on Saturday, going seven strong innings. He did post a 35% Ball%. That’s uncharacteristic from him, but he didn’t walk a single guy so it was fine. He’s a stud.
Spencer Arrighetti
All pitchers are named Spencer and all hitters are named Jackson these days.
Remember that the story with Arrighetti was a high walk rate. He really struggled with that early on last year, but showed improvement and had some dominant outings in the second half last year. This weekend, he did struggle with the command, posting a very bad 41% Ball%:
But the 13.8% SwStr% and .265 xwOBA allowed were good to see. One start is definitely too little to react very much to, but I’d say he passed the test. He gave up just one hit in six innings on a 5:2 K:BB. I’m not locking Arrighetti in as a must-own guy, but I do like the upside he offers if he can throw more strikes.
Griffin Canning
5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 4 SO, 2 BB, 1 HR
He took on the Astros and did okay. That’s a decent line.
Under the hood, it’s not so nice:
No whiffs on the four-seamer and a poor 11.5% SwStr% with league-average marks in Strike% and Ball%. That’s a lot better than he did most of last year, but I’m not putting Canning on any fantasy rosteres at this point.
Gavin Williams
5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 SO, 1 BB
We have another case of a good real-life result, but this isn’t what we were hoping to see from Williams out of the gate. After his dominant spring, he looked pretty hittable in this first start against the Royals:
74 pitches, 8.1% SwStr%, 47.3% Strike%, 31.1% Ball%
Just six whiffs overall. This was his problem last year. The fastball velo is there, but it didn’t perform that well against MLB hitters, and the secondaries weren’t good enough to support it.
At 97.5mph, the fastball has strong upside, and it was phenomenal in spring. There’s real hope for Williams to truly be a breakout SP, but this, I’d say, was a bit of a stumble out of the block.
You have to keep in mind here that I’m writing this with future starts in mind. Guardians fans are happy with that start from Williams. And again, we’re talking about one outing here. But I’m focusing on the things that best predict future performance. We have to make decisions on our fantasy teams with limited data, so this is about the best I can offer you.
Roki Sasaki
I do not see how anybody can start Sasaki this week. His two outings have been about as bad as you could have imagined.
The 51% Ball% is insane. If that number is still there in 2-3 more starts, I think he’s going to the minor leagues. He just has no command of the baseball.
The good news is that it’s two starts, and this wasn’t something he had trouble with in Japan. If he could throw the ball over the plate in Japan, I’m not sure why he can’t do it in the MLB. The mound is still the same distance from the plate, and the strike zones are still the same size.
So maybe we’ll look back at this as just the guy being in his own head in his first couple go at Major Leaguers. It’s possible.
I wouldn’t cut the guy. There’s too much upside for that. But I’m certainly not going to start the guy this week, and I’m probably only giving him 2-3 more outings like this before I’d outright cut him. Although the Dodgers may very well make that decision for us. He signed a minor league contract, remember, so he’s full of options. He could easily go to AAA to see if he can fix this command stuff. That could happen pretty quickly.
Reese Olson
4.2 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 5 SO, 2 BB, 1 H R
Olson had the unenviable assignment of facing the Dodgers in his first outing, and it didn’t go super well.
He threw the slider a lot, but the Dodgers handled it pretty well. The interesting thing here is the sinker usage. Last year he threw his four-seamer 23% of the time with 20% usage on the sinker. So that’s a bit of a shift toward the sinker. Maybe that was matchup specific or just a random thing. But remember, this guy’s problem is that his fastballs suck. So any kind of change there could be interesting.
He just needs to set up the elite slider and changeup he has. He didn’t do that in this first start, but you can certainly forgive a one-start sample, especially when it’s against a fully healthy Dodgers lineup.
Jose Soriano
7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 5 SO, 2 BB, 0 HR
He went right at the White Sox, and it worked marvelously. That’s exactly you want this guy to do. The way he’s going to have success (if he has it) is by not walking hitters, and letting them beat the ball into the ground.
You see the heavy sinker generating a 75% GB% there. The lack of whiffs is going to cost him hits and runs allowed, but if it’s a 65%+ GB%, the ERA should be decent. You just don’t often pile up multiple runs when you’re hitting everything on the ground.
Some luck and strong infield defense will be required, and this was the easiest of matchups, but Soriano did what he needed to.
I still think the 7% SwStr% is too low. Soriano is only a deeper league target for me. The other negative point here is the 37% Ball%. That’s too high. If he’s going to post a 9-10% BB%, I think there will be more bad than good. But he’ll have these outings where he gets very deep into the game because he’s getting a bunch of outs in a hurry on ground balls.
Nick Lodolo
6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 K, 0 BB
That’s a quality start, but just one strikeout!? Not a good sign, although it was against a Giants lineup which looks like a pretty “pesky” one, I’d say.
We need more whiffs than this, and the command wasn’t there either. It’s good to see the 62% GB% powered by that sinker, but everything else was discouraging.
I’m holding Lodolo for a bit longer, but he’s going to have to get a bunch more strikeouts than this to be worth a roster spot in fantasy leagues.
Sunday
Jacob deGrom
5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 6 SO, 2 BB
He is still elite. This was not the usual deGrom, however. The fastball averaged under 97mph. The damage was done with that slider (34.5% SwStr%!!):
I’m more and more convinced that this was a good move for him. Ease off the fastball. He doesn’t need 99-100 to be a dominant SP with that slider being so good. Few guys can command the slider like he can, so yeah, 96-97 will work just fine.
What 96-97 doesn’t mean is that he’ll definitely be healthy. But I don’t have to tell anybody that deGrom is a top 3 SP right now, and that’s probably being generous to the rest of the league.
Jack Kochanowicz
6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 4 SO, 0 BB, 1 HR
This start was against the White Sox. It was no surprise that he put up a quality start, but the four strikeouts and 18.8% SwStr% were pretty shocking.
Grain of salt: the White Sox are not a Major League lineup. But how about that four-seamer? 95.5mph and a 31% SwStr%. I promise you, that will never happen again. This is a guy who posted a single-digit K% last year.
But maybe he gets to 16-17% K% this year? He does throw a ton of quality strikes, and generated mostly very soft contact last year. Maybe he’ll be a model-defier.
I absolutely do not recommend the guy, but maybe, just maybe, I’ve been too harsh on the guy. His next outing is against the Guardians, a much tougher opponent. If I can get an under 3.5 strikeouts prop bet, I’m all over it there.
Max Meyer
5.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 7 7 SO, 1 BB, 1 HR
The Pirates lineup is a joke, and Meyer took advantage of that. But it was an encouraging start, no doubt about it:
The slider was ridiculously good. That’s heavy slider usage, though. I’m not sure he can keep that up. And the early look at the two fastball wasn’t encouraging either. Just one whiff on his 33 fastballs. That worked against the Pirates, but I don’t think it will work too well against other offenses.
The velo is decent, and it’s good to have the two fastball variations. I think it could be a nice season for Meyer. Next up is the Braves, so that will be a big challenge. I’m not sure I’d want to use him in that spot. But in a 14-team league or something, you’re holding for sure.
Richard Fitts
6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 4 SO, 0 BB, 2 HR
Fitts nabbed a job in the Red Sox rotation after their barrage of injuries. He was a spring training darling, but the underlying marks were poor in this first start.
No whiffs on 23 fastballs. That isn’t going to work. Last year, he threw 21 innings in the Majors with a 10.6% K%. In the minors, it was a 22.6% K%, so if I had to make a decision on him today, I’d be selling (or, I guess, dropping).
AJ Smith-Shawver
4 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 4 SO, 3 BB, 0 HR
The guy’s issue has mostly been the long ball, so it was somewhat encouraging to see him not give up a homer, I guess? But the 4:3 K:BB is awful, and everything under the hood looks terrible.
A 36% Strike% and 45% Ball% are really, really bad, and you can see that he did get hit pretty hard despite the zero homers allowed (.404 xwOBA). The kid does have good stuff, but the command of the baseball doesn’t seem to be there. It’s hands-off for AJSS right now.
Overview
Ripped through a ton of names there, and I can’t say we found anything exciting. Nobody really stood out in our search to find the 2025 breakout SP. But we’ll continue looking. There are many more interesting names to pitch, and we really do want a 3-4 star sample before really knowing anything.
Some other notes, quickly:
Don’t worry about Bailey Ober. He was sick, apparently? And he’s prone to the long ball anyway. It was always known that he’d have some rough outings. Don’t overreact to that just because one of the tough outings came in the first game of the year.
It’s not looking good for Max Scherzer on the health front. He’s on the IL now. I’d say you can just cut him.
Tomoyuki Sugano struck out just one in four innings with a 6.8% SwStr%. Not a good sign for his fantasy success, and a low K% was expected with him.
Walker Buehler struggled with command (39% Ball%) and did not get many whiffs (10% SwStr%, none on his 33 fastballs).
Nick Martinez had a decent outing, but gave up two homers and put up a very bad 8.4% SwStr% and a 35% Ball%. The way he’ll have success is by throwing a ton of strikes and getting outs on balls in play. I don’t like relying on that, especially not in Great American Ballpark.
Hitters
I’ve got to say something about these Yankees torpedo bat things. The Bombers dialed up 13 homers in two games Saturday and Sunday.
Judge 4
Jazz 3
Goldy 1
Peraza 1
Bellinger 1
Rice 1
Wells 1
Volpe 1
And then this thing about their changed barrels got into the news, and now everybody thinks that’s the reason for the home run barrage. I think that’s all pretty ridiculous. Here is who they hit the homers off of:
Nestor Cortes 5
Aaron Civale 3
Connor Thompson 3
Chad Patrick 1
Joey Payamps 1
If there was ever a weekend to hit 13 homers, it was this Yankees lineup at home against this Brewers rotation.
And we are four games into the season. If you look at any four-game sample in baseball, you’re going to find some wild stuff happening.
I’m not ready to attribute more than like 5% of this to the bat. That’s not to say I’m definitely right. I’m just saying this is a case of people taking a two-game sample (where anything can happen) where all the odds were in the Yankees favor from the beginning and trying to explain it. You can’t explain everything in life. Randomness reigns.
But we’ll see, it’s certainly an interesting story to track. And personally, I’m feeling pretty good since I took Jazz Chisholm with my first pick in the home league.
I’m going to record a podcast now to do a weekend recap. I guess that there will be a lot of overlap with that and this post. My plan is to do two pods a week. One on Mondays and one on Fridays, looking back at the last 3-4 days in each one.
Maybe I should just abbreviate the daily notes on those days so I’m not spending all morning doing all of this, but for today, I’ll just do both.
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Hello Jon. On your daily notes, will you be sharing your entire spreadsheet as in previous years? When I’m not using it to stream a hitter, I use it to break a tie on who to start at a position. Very helpful.