MLB Daily Notes - May 13
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis
The Daily Notes are the flagship resource of MLB Data Warehouse. Every morning, Jon breaks down the current goings on in the fantasy baseball world, and an automated daily report gets you up to date on key stats and trends. Become a paid subscriber at MLB Data Warehouse to get this unlocked in your inbox every morning!
I did all that work for the Splash Sports survivor contest where you pick a guy to get a hit every day and see if you can last the longest, and I’m out on day one! I went with Yandy Diaz, who was the popular pick at 12% (everybody picked two players), and he went 0/5 with a walk. That’s right, he came to the plate six times and did not strike out. Five balls in play, all outs! And Nico Hoerner couldn’t even save me as my fallback pick, going 0/3 with a walk and a hit by pitch or something. I was 0/3 but with five PAs and just one walk. Sac fly maybe. I don’t know. But that contest was stupid and I don’t want to win it anyways!
If you’re still playing, or just want data on guys with the best odds of getting hits on a given day, check out the new resource I laid out here.
Pitchers
Paul Skenes - 8.0IP 2H 0ER 0R 10K 0BB
He did not disappoint in the easiest matchup of his career. The ERA is down to 2.16 and this guy has a 0.64 WHIP! That’s 15 points clear of Schlittler! A truly incredible number.
That got me wondering about what the WHIP record is. Because right now, Paul Skenes has it. Going back to 2000, Pedro Martinez in 2000 has the record with a 0.74 WHIP. Nobody else has stayed below 0.80.
Skenes has a long, long way to go to be the second guy to stay under 0.80, but it’s not out of the question that he could do it.
Michael McGreevy being on that list is so absurd.
Bailey Ober - 9.0IP 2H 0ER 0R 7K 0BB
Okay, man. I gave this dude a THREE on the SP grading yesterday. How stupid does that look now?
His fastball velo came UP to 88.6 miles per hour. 🔥🔥🔥🔥
He had 14 whiffs for a 15.7% SwStr%. He ditched the sinker entirely, but it wasn’t a pitch he was using much. Yesterday:
37 changeups, 34 four-seamers, nine sweepers, five sliders, four curveballs. The changeup was magnificent, the fastball didn’t get hit despite a 35% Strike% and a 45% FB%.
What do we do with this? He has a 19% K%, a 7% BB%, a 35% GB%, but a .283 xwOBA which is really good. The fastball isn’t effective, but lately it’s been good enough to let the changeup do the work and he’s been pretty good.
His last five starts: 32.1 IP, 2.23 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 20.2% K%, 8.1% BB%, 3 HR
I still don’t really want to start the freaking guy! It’s good that he has this changeup working so well, and the changeup can be the great neutralizer. Most dudes who beat their SIERAs consistently seem to have a really good changeup.
But general rules apply, man. He’s a sub-20% K% with a sub-35% GB%! If you look at the list of pitchers with K% under 20%, BB% above 6%, and GB% under 40%, there isn’t a good pitcher to speak of, besides Ober. It’s like Baz, Civale, Chandler, Fedde, Liberatore, Lopez, SWR, Painter, Rogers, Lauer, etc.
I’m not buying Ober. But good for you if you’ve been riding through these last five nice starts.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 6.33IP 6H 5ER 5R 8K 0BB
Roughed up a bit, but a pristine 8:0 K:BB. The whiffs kept coming with 15. But he gave up three homers. And they weren’t too Rafael Devers and Willy Adames, this guy got rocked twice by Eric Haase and once by Harrison Bader. Baseball is weird!
Trevor Rogers - 4.0IP 6H 6ER 6R 3K 3BB
Tough return for Rogers against the Yankees. He got plnety of whiffs with a 15.1% SwStr%, but was jacked up with two homers allowed on a .433 xwOBA. It’s tough to get through this Yankees lineup more than once.
I wouldn’t blame you for benching Rogers for a bit, but I don’t think I’d be dropping him anywhere.
Grant Holmes - 4.0IP 1H 2ER 2R 5K 4BB
He was limited to 78 pitches here, and Didier Fuentes followed with three nice innings (3 IP, 0 H, 3 SO, 1 BB). So Holmes might be destined for a bullpen role. But maybe the 3-4 inning opener thing will worok pretty well for them, and they can bring in Fuentes with that elite fastball and only have him facing the lineup once or twice through.
Shane McClanahan - 5.0IP 1H 0ER 0R 7K 1BB
80 pitches and done for Shane Mac. His max is 90 and his last three have been 73, 69, and 80. So they’re being careful to say the least. But he’s been pitching excellently. A 16:2 K:BB the last three starts with zero homers allowed.
Pretty soft matchups, though (SF, TOR, TOR).
Bryan Woo - 6.0IP 4H 2ER 2R 9K 2BB
Good job by Woo. A 58.7% Strike%, which is elite.
Freddy Peralta - 6.0IP 7H 2ER 2R 7K 1BB
I never know what to say about Peralta. He’s a good, but not great fantasy pitcher. But he was very good last night with just the two runs and the 7:1 K:BB against the Tigers.
Eury Perez - 6.0IP 3H 3ER 3R 8K 3BB
Only ten whiffs for an 11.5% SwStr%, and he gave up a homer and allowed three walks. He was playing with fire there. It was all pretty bad, to be honest. But he bailed himself out with the eight strikeouts and only the three hits allowed.
He’s now given up a 13.5% Brl% against. That’s the fifth-highest in baseball.
That’s very likely to come down. Very few guys have finished above 13%. Nobody did it last year with 20+ starts.
2025 Worst Brl% Allowed
Mikolas 12.7%
Quantrill 12.4%
Cecconi 12.2%
Irvin 11.9%
Sugano 11.6%
So that’s good news for Eury. The bad news is that he’s a fly ball pitcher, and those guys will obviously give up more barrels, since most barrels are fly balls.
Keep starting Eury and keep hoping the command improves.