MLB Daily Notes - May 14
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis
The Daily Notes are the flagship resource of MLB Data Warehouse. Every morning, Jon breaks down the current goings on in the fantasy baseball world, and an automated daily report gets you up to date on key stats and trends. Become a paid subscriber at MLB Data Warehouse to get this unlocked in your inbox every morning!
I got the DFS slate breakdown done first this morning. One of you commented to us about getting the DFS stuff out as early as possible yesterday to give as much time to use it in research. So we’ll do our best there. But typically we’re getting those in 3-4 hours before the slate starts. I always thought that was plenty of time, but it’s interesting to hear the feedback about needing more time. I guess there are some real grinders out there who use the whole day to prepare… those are probably the guys making the money.
So let’s look back to yesterday now. The studs were studs:
Misiorowski: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 10 SO, 0 BB, 33.4 points
Ohtani: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 8 SO, 2 BB, W, 32 points
Bradish: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 7 So, 3 BB, W, 29 points
Cease: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 9 SO, 3 BB, 28 points
I just grouped Bradish in there with the “studs”. I don’t think he’s earned that title yet, but his last two have been very good. Let’s look at his last five starts. Because five is bigger than two, and five is divisible by five. You have five fingers on your hand, so that’s a number you’ve known for a long time.
→ 27% K%, 12% BB%, 14.5% K-BB%, 12.8% SwStr%, 40.2% Ball%
Still pretty disappointing. Last two though:
→ 35% K%, 8.2% BB%, 26.5% K-BB%, 14.8% SwStr%, 38.8% Ball%
The slider and curveball have been great lately, and that’s who Bradish always has been. He’s been a dude with elite breaking balls and a guy who just punishes you when he’s ahead in the count. But the fastball hasn’t been there, and it’s still not there this year.
Getting strike one is so important for this guy, and he’s been below average at getting ahead in counts this year. But it’s been better lately. So you must be feeling pretty good about him if you’ve waited it out. But my warning is that there will always be some clunker starts from a guy without a good fastball.
Sonny Gray - 6.0IP 2H 1ER 1R 6K 1BB
Back from the IL to throw 78 pitches and he was very efficient. A 14.1% SwStr% and six strikeouts, his best start of the season by far. Good news there.
Andrew Painter - 5.0IP 4H 1ER 1R 4K 0BB
Short outing for Painter with just 62 pitches thrown.
"He’s having a good game, let’s get him the hell out of there before he screws it all up!”. Good call, Phillies. They lost 3-1.
Nick Lodolo - 4.0IP 6H 5ER 5R 6K 3BB
I guess the good news is that the blister hasn’t come back. But I hope you haven’t started him for these first two starts. Actually, I don’t really hope that. I don’t care at all what you guys have done with your team.
The velo and pitch mix are the same as last year. He’s very dependent on spin and his release point and stuff, so it’s probably just a slow start because he got the late start. Buy low on Lodolo if possible.
Shota Imanaga - 7.0IP 5H 2ER 2R 6K 0BB
28% K%, 6.2% BB%, 22% K-BB%, 2.48 ERA, 0.90 WHIP. Kinda just saying the same stuff about Imanaga every time now. He’s losing a little tiny bit of velo on the fastball:
And he still has an 11% HR/FB, which won’t keep up, we don’t think. I don’t think he’s an SP1 for fantasy the rest of the season, so I’d absolutely sell really high if I could. I think there’s more downside than upside with him where things currently stand.
Ryne Nelson - 7.0IP 4H 3ER 3R 8K 0BB
First 6 starts: 7.71 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 20% K%, 9% BB%, 2.1 HR/9
Last 3 starts: 2.33 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 26% K%, 4% BB%, 1.4 HR/9
His four-seam usage is down to 54% these last three!
Look at that SLIDEPIECE. Nice. Ryne is back! We probably need to get that ownership a lot higher than 48%. He is certainly back in play for standard fantasy leagues.