MLB Daily Notes - May 19
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis
Check out yesterday’s box scores here
The Daily Notes are the flagship resource of MLB Data Warehouse. Every morning, Jon breaks down the current goings on in the fantasy baseball world, and an automated daily report gets you up to date on key stats and trends. Become a paid subscriber at MLB Data Warehouse to get this unlocked in your inbox every morning!
Big splash for me in DFS last night. It was a great night for the daily projections, and I was lucky enough to have chosen last night to try another 150 max situation. They were all $1 entries, and a little Diamondbacks stack plus Yamamoto & Woo took two of my lineups into the top four.
There’s a lot of luck in DFS, and it’s pretty tough to be profitable with the 15% juice they take or whatever it is. I’ve become pretty convinced that by far the best way to play is by using solid projections and just jamming in as many entries with a narrow player pool as they’ll allow. So that was fun. This is the second time I’ve taken second place in a big tournament in the last week. And in some ways, second place is the toughest place to take since so much of the prize goes to the #1 spot. Seven points is actually quite a bit at the top of the leaderboard, so I wasn’t super close, but still… one more two-run double or something would’ve doubled that $750. So shout out to me, I’ve got plenty of funds to use the rest of the year now.
Let’s look at some of yesterday’s most interesting pitcher performances.
Tatuya Imai - 4.67IP 5H 3ER 3R 5K 0BB
He led the day with 19 whiffs and a sick 25.7% SwStr%. This is pretty big news. They pulled him after 74 pitches, and the box score line wasn’t good with three earned in 4.2 innings. But this is hugely encouraging for Imai.
Zero walks is the main point to make. He could not throw a strike prior to last night. But he went for a 28% Ball% last night. The slider was insane last night, hitters had zero chance against it and it was in the zone like never before.
I didn’t even notice this before, but he hasn’t thrown his splitter since April 4th. So that’s not a pitch he’s using now. I guess I was just badly mistaken on that. I thought it was a significant part of his mix. But no, he’s mostly sliders and four-seamers this year. Which isn’t all that great of a thing, but it will work if he can get strikes with the fastball and if the slider continues to be very good.
It’s hard to buy in right now since his season walk rate is still a disaster, but that was a very encouraging outing, no doubt about it.
Bryan Woo - 6.0IP 3H 0ER 0R 8K 2BB
Dominated the White Sox at home, as we predicted! He has 26 strikeouts in his last three now with a 39% K%, a 9% BB%, and a .196 xwOBA allowed in those last three. Looks like Woo is a stud again after some shaky outings earlier on this year.
JT Ginn - 8 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 10 SO, 1 BB
He took a no hitter into the ninth and then gave up a single and a homer to lose the game. That’s pretty funny. He had 14 whiffs on 105 pitches and allowed just a .253 xwOBA, with most of that coming from that game-ending homer.
It was an elite matchup for Ginn on the road against the Angels. That helps a lot. But he’s had a really nice run of three starts now.
→ May 7: 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 8 SO, 1 BB vs. PHI
→ May 13: 6 IP, 9 H, 0 ER, 3 SO, 1 BB vs. STL
→ May 18: 8 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 10 SO, 1 BB vs. LAA
Good to see the walks being down. I’m still not thinking he’s a strikeout pitcher with his 10.9% SwStr% and sinker-heavy pitch mix. But the sinker is pretty good and he has a cutter/slider/change/four-seam mix behind it. He’s clearly the Athletics best starter and he’s a guy you can use for streaming purposes. Still don’t know if I’d want him in 12-teamer.
Walbert Urena - 6.0IP 4H 0ER 0R 4K 2BB
Urena was battling with Ginn and had another pretty decent outing.
But the K-BB% is really bad. He had himself a good matchup there against the Athletics who rely a lot on homers. I don’t think Urena will give up many homers with that 61% GB% on the change and the 60% on the sinker. He can keep the ball on the ground, but he’s had some issue with walks (12.5% BB%). He’s a Jose Soriano lite type guy. But maybe he’s learning. This guy came out of nowhere, which is notable in and of itself. Nobody had heard of the guy at the beginning of spring. He had a 4.34 ERA, a 21% K%, and a 12% BB% in AA-AAA last year, but then he added like 5mph to the fastball and looks like a legitimtae big league rotation piece now. Not a fantasy baseball guy at this point, but a solid SP3-SP4 in the bigs.
Sonny Gray - 6.0IP 5H 1ER 1R 9K 1BB
Two nice outings from Gray now after returning from the IL! 14 strikeouts, two walks in 12 innings these last two (MIL and SF). Pitch mix from the last two:
The fastballs have never been good for him. He’s really dependent on the sweeper and curve, but that’s not new - and it’s worked for him well in the recent past. So I think you should probably start the guy. Very good to see him getting the strikeouts again after he began the year with a 15% K% in his first six starts. That is up to 18% now after these last two starts, so we’re going in the right direction.
MacKenzie Gore - 1.0IP 3H 2ER 2R 2K 2BB
He had a rough first outing and then got hurt and left. Or maybe he faked it because he didn’t want to further damage his stats in that Coors start. I’m pretty close to cutting the guy. But maybe we can get a free IL placement from him here and see what happens from there.
He just can’t throw enough strikes and the SwStr% has dwindled down 11.7% now. That’s not going to work! But we know that Gore can be one of the best in the game when he’s in his groove. It just seems to be more bad than good right now, and the injury won’t help things.
Max Meyer - 6.0IP 3H 0ER 0R 6K 2BB
He’s down to a 2.85 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and an 18% K-BB% after six scoreless against Atlanta last night.
That’s a huge 15.4% SwStr% and a good enough 35.7% Ball%. The JA SIERA is crisp at 3.13. He’s looking very good.
And a lot of it has been about the fastball being moderately decent this year. He’s always had these nasty breaking balls, but the heater has held him back. But he’s found something that has worked now. It’s still a bad fastball, so I’m not guaranteeing that he’ll stay this good. But seriously, the slider and sweeper are so good.
Michael King - 7.0IP 4H 0ER 0R 9K 2BB
He passed the LAD test with flying freaking carpets. That’s another Trailer Park Boys quote for you.
King has a 2.31 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP this year on a 25.8% K% with a 10.5% BB%. The SIERA isn’t going to look nearly that good with his 15% K-BB%, but he just keeps the ball in the yard. He’s allowed four homers all year and has more than enough strikeouts to cover the few extra walks.
No pitch above 30% usage, four pitches above 20%. He pitches righties and lefties effectively. He’s a good pitcher and is proving to have been a steal in drafts this year.
JR Ritchie - 4.0IP 6H 6ER 6R 4K 1BB
He’s quite bad. And I think they should probably get Didier Fuentes in his spot. An 18% K% with a 14% BB% and a. 335 xwOBA allowed now.
Ryan Weathers - 5.33IP 7H 5ER 5R 7K 0BB
Gave up a couple more dingers in this one, so that problem showed up again. But the 7:0 K:BB should make you feel cozy. He’ll be fine, but you’re going to run into these bad starts with his home run problems (1.6 HR/9 last year, 1.4 this year).
Noah Schultz - 5.33IP 5H 3ER 3R 6K 0BB
It was his first two with no walks.
He has thrown more and more of his sinker as the year has progressed. But ti’s not a godo pitch with a 42% Strike%, a 2.6% SwStr%, and a 35% GB%. I think Schultz is just bad.