MLB Daily Notes - May 25
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis
Check out yesterday’s box scores here
The Daily Notes are the flagship resource of MLB Data Warehouse. Every morning, Jon breaks down the current goings on in the fantasy baseball world, and an automated daily report gets you up to date on key stats and trends. Become a paid subscriber at MLB Data Warehouse to get this unlocked in your inbox every morning!
I saw this wild stat about the number of Europeans that die from heat every year. It’s way, way higher than you’d ever guess. They haven’t even quite figured out heat over there. So that makes me even more proud to be an American this Memorial Day. My house is so cool, no matter what the temperature is out there.
It’s a great country, and I love it. Let’s have a day!
Troy Melton debut: 5.2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 3 BB
Went fine, I guess. Just an 8.9% SwStr% with a .372 xwOBA, but we aren’t judging the guy on 79 pitches. The Stuff+ isn’t good, if you care about that. Which you should… a little bit.
And then we get to Reid Detmers… who looked like freaking George Washington out there last night. I mean I doubt George Washington would have thrown 94mph, but he was the American Hero, and so was Detmers last night.
→ 8 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 14 SO, 0 BB
23 whiffs… I’m super mad about this because I’ve been starting him all year and then finally gave up on him after that eight earned run performance last time. And that was dumb, because he got a ton of whiffs again in that last start. His 2.77 JA SIERA is elite. He has a 21% K-BB% now with a .270 xwOBA. It all looks very good, besides the fact that he’s had only a few good starts for fantasy leagues this year.
MacKenzie Gore got it going on the other side of that matchup as well.
→ 6.0IP 1H 1ER 1R 7K 2BB
Good command (35.4% Ball%), a little bit more fastball velo, and finally an efficient, clean start. Both of these lineups help pitchers immensely, but good to see two talented lefties take advantage.
Shota Imanaga - 6.0IP 7H 7ER 7R 6K 1BB
We knew the home run regression would catch up to him, but not like this. Five dingers in two starts now!
His ERA has been sent up to 4.18 after giving up 15 earned runs this week on 16 hits and four walks. What a disaster for Shota. But this is what he opens himself up with the heavy fly ball rate.
The good news here was 16 whiffs and maintained fastball velo. He’s not falling off the rails in that regard. It’s all about the long ball for Imanaga. And it will go poorly sometimes.
Drew Rasmussen - 7.0IP 5H 0ER 0R 6K 1BB
92 pitches to get through seven innings. Rasmussen is the man.
So disrspected too. Seemed like people in drafts didn’t want him this year because oooOooO noOoOO he might only throw five innings most of the time oh no!!! He’s averaging 5.5 innings per start now, so SUCK IT! And the ratios are always, always so good.
He’s never had an ERA above three or a WHIP above 1.10. It’s ridiculous stuff.
Som bad luck from yesterday:
Some good luck:
Michael King shouldn’t have had that bad of a start: 3.67IP 5H 4ER 4R 4K 4BB. But he did walk four, which is all his fault and he’s a stupid idiot for doing that.
Speaking of walks, Robbie Ray walked SEVEN White Sox. Seven! Somehow survived with only four earned runs (4 IP, 2 H, 4 ER, 3 SO, 7 BB, 1 HR). That’s pretty lucky. It boosts his season BB% to 11.6%. It was 9.6% yesterday. Funny stuff. Ray has now given up eight homers in his last five starts with 15 walks.
I will allow you to cut him.
You should also cut Noah Schultz if you haven’t already.
→ 4.0IP 6H 6ER 6R 1K 1BB
Trevor Rogers didn’t change your mind if you were thinking about cutting him.
→ 4.67IP 4H 4ER 4R 2K 2BB
Just five whiffs. He’s been bad.
Andrew Painter
→ 6.33IP 6H 2ER 2R 3K 2BB
He has really gone away from the four-seamer in his last three outings. Throwing it just 28% of the time. Here’s the pitch mix for those three starts:
It hasn’t turned into strikeouts at all (15% K%), but the BB% is still low (6%) and he’s been hit softly with a .279 xwOBA. It won’t work for long with just a 15% K%. But I’ve been saying that Painter has a lot of different developmental paths with the deep pitch mix he has. And that was his second straight quality start with a 10:4 K:BB in his last three with only 13 hits and five earned runs allowed.
He’s still fine for a 15-team league, but anything shallower than that it’s pretty tough.
Hitter Leaders
Here are your 20+ fantasy point days from yesterday:
Rafael Devers and the Giants continue to heat up and perform much better. Devers is hitting .301/.344/.590 with five homers in May.
Casey Schmitt has been their best hitter with an .895 OPS, 11 homers, and three steals now.