MLB Daily Notes - May 27
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis
Check out yesterday’s box scores here
The Daily Notes are the flagship resource of MLB Data Warehouse. Every morning, Jon breaks down the current goings on in the fantasy baseball world, and an automated daily report gets you up to date on key stats and trends. Become a paid subscriber at MLB Data Warehouse to get this unlocked in your inbox every morning!
I’m pretty pumped to be retired in like 35 years. I just want to get up and like cut my grass, do baseball stuff, and sit around outside all day every day. But my dad is retired and he doesn’t seem to do anything at all other than sit around watching the news and looking at his phone. So there are good ways and horrible ways to retire, I guess. Just like anything else. The thing is good or bad depending on how you use it.
I think smart phones have been worse for the boomers than any other generation. They seem to really crush like teenagers and people over 65 years old. Us milennials have our problems, but it seems to me like we’re handling it better than the younger and older generations.
At least we generally know what’s real and fake. Most older people still seem extremely gullible. I’d guess that the younger generations will go too far the other way and just assume that literally everything is fake, and then they’ll have no way to trust anything or anybody. Which is probably closer to true. Pretty much everything is fake.
But I’m real. I am Jon Anderson, a real person who dropped Reid Detmers and Ben Brown and believed in Gage Jump last night. Here’s the pithc mix:
There’s some good news here, bro. 14.8% SwStr%, the slider and sweeper both loaded up on the whiffs. He gave up just a .311 xwOBA with a .500 BABIP. No barrels, a 5:1 K:BB. I’m decently encouraged by that.
The Stuff+ doesn’t blow you away, but it’s not in the problem area either. Lefties can outdo these Stuff+ metrics, and Jump is a pretty rare lefty with high 90s velo. Here’s the full list of left-handed starting pitchers who average more than 95.5 mph on their fastball:
Payton Tolle
Jesus Luzardo
Ryan Weathers
Tarik Skubal
Anthony Kay
Garrett Crochet
Blake Snell
Gage Jump
That’s a short list. Hitters just aren’t used to seeing this kind of lefty velo, and the two different breaking balls behind it could make it work even better. I’d hold on to Jump if you went out and added him before yesterday.
JORDAN WICKS 4.33IP 9H 8ER 8R 5K 1BB
Wicks got JACKED UP. That was awesome. I loved it so much, the Pirates have dropped the Cubs to a tie for last place. TEN LOSSES IN A ROW.
Aaron Nola - 6.0IP 3H 2ER 2R 5K 0BB
I thought it might be a good Nola night. These Padres, man. They’re hitting 196/.267/.334 in May. Nobody has double-digit homers.
And they’re paying this roster so much money. And this is what happens, man. If you put your heart out there, it might get broken. Manny Machado I suppose earned plenty of his big contract, he’s been good for them, and he’ll probably be good again. But he’s not good right now.
Let’s look at some of these other losers that are killing your fantasy teams this year, shall we? Let’s get negative with it. By my count, there are NINE hitters owned above 90% with 200+ PA and an OBP elow .650. Here they are in all of their shame:
Remember when Jackson Merrill was competiting with Paul Skenes for Rookie of the Year? How does someone peak at 20 years old?
This freakin’ guy is hitting .241/.301/.411 with 20 homers in almost 700 PAs the last two years. But don’t worry, he’s stolen ELEVEN BASES. So he’s been a loser for your fantasy teams, including my own!
I convinced myself that he was just hurt in 2025 and would get back to his 25-15 ways from his rookie year, so I drafted him this year. And now he’s riding my bench daily and I might just have to drop him soon.
In Christian theology, we call the progression towards Christlikeness sanctification. There are three general stage in the Christian life.
Justification: The moment of salvation when Christ imputes his righteousness to you based on your belief in His sacrifice. You are saved by grace through faith through no work of your own.
Santification: Your lifelong up-trend towards moral perfection. Of course, you never get there, but the trend of your life should be upward toward that impossible-to-reach horizontal asymptote.
Glorification: When your go into eternal glory in heaven with God. Sin and its effects are left behind for good and you live forever (whatever forever means in a spiritual existence where time does not exist) with God and the saints.
Merrill was justified with the contract extension he signed before ever debuting in the Majors. But he has no interest in sanctification, which calls into question that initial justification.
Speaking of sanctification, what do think about the crotch chop?
Abner Uribe is out there doing things, man. This is what happens when the flesh takes over. And what’s the risk for Uribe? Pitchers don’t hit, they don’t expose themself to being thrown at to be punished for their crimes. What can the Cardinals do to seek justice for this insult? Nothing really other than hope for a fine or something.
I laughed at the crotch chop, there’s no doubt about it. In some ways, I like that kind of stuff. In other ways, and in much more important ways, I don’t like it. Because kids watch these games and idolize these players. Humans are mimetic creatures. We copy other people. So no doubt some kid in Milwaukee is going out on the Little League field this weekend and ripping off a few crotch chops because of what Abner did here. I would also laugh if that happened… but I can’t say it’s a good thing. I mean, if one of my boys ever does something like that, they’ll be in big trouble.
I’m not sure if my kids will be good at sports, but if they are, they’re going to learn the ways of perceived humility. I hope they’re truly humble, of course, but I can’t control their minds as well as I can control their actions. There’s no cooler way to act than to do something really cool, to do something really well, and then act like it was no big deal. Like you didn’t do anything good at all.
One of the coolest things I’ve ever done was in college tennis. Semifinal match of the President’s Athletics Conference Sixth Singles Tournament. This was back when I was setting the groundwork for Mason Miller at Waynesburg. I was paving his path to greatness. It was a first set tiebreaker and it was tied 6-6. This dude Dustin Maiolo hits a lob over my head after I come to the net. Great shot; he thought he had me. So I run back full sprint and hit a backwards through-the-legs tweener down the line for a winner. And I win the set on my next serve. It was really, really cool. And here I am talking about it 14 years later, so you can tell that it went to my head. But what I did do? I didn’t react. Act like it was easy, like it was no big thing. In my head, of course, I’m ready to like build a monument to myself right there on the baseline where I hit the shot. But you can’t let it show.
I lost 0-6, 0-6 in the final to some Grove City College kid. They won the conference every year without even really paying attention.
If you bought into Geraldo Perdomo this year, that was obviously a mistake. 20 homers last year - totally fake. .290 last year - totally fake. He’s down to .218/.327/.322 this year with two homers. Still walking more than striking out, but he doesn’t hit the ball hard. His career HR% has always been about 1%. And then he went for 3% last year, and that wasn’t going to happen again. You should never buy high. That’s the lesson.
Cade Cavalli - 6.0IP 5H 1ER 1R 7K 2BB
Last nine starts: 45.1 IP, 3.97 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 27.7% K%, 5.8% BB%, 0.60 HR/9. He’s a pretty good pitcher, man. Three straight quality starts with a 23:3 K:BB and two wins. I was right about Cavalli after all.
Braxton Ashcraft - 6.33IP 7H 1ER 1R 5K 1BB
I was also right about Ashcraft. He now sports a 2.73 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP in his MLB career with a 17.6% K-BB%. I don’t think he’s sub-three ERA level of good, but the GB% helps out. He’s allowed just nine homers in 139 innings now. He’s very good at throwing quality strikes and generating soft contact, and he’s getting more than enough strikeouts this year with a 25.9% K%.
Michael McGreevy - 4.0IP 7H 5ER 5R 6K 3BB
Things are really getting right.
First 9 starts:
2.10 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 19% K%, 1.05 HR/9
Last two starts:
8.00 ERA, 2.33 WHIP, 15% K%, 2.0 HR/9
The xwOBA is up to .366 and he’s given up an 11% Brl%. So he’s not even a soft contact bro. He’s just bad. Everything good he does is LUCK. Everything bad he does is TRUTH.
Joe Ryan - 7.67IP 5H 2ER 2R 9K 0BB
HR/FB is holding down at 6%. That’s way lower than you shoul ever believe. But a .269 xwOBA this year along with another 22% K-BB%.
Only seven pitchers over the last three seasons have 50+ starts with a K-BB% above 22%.
Crochet 27%
Skubal 26%
Sale 26%
Skenes 25%
Wheeler 24%
Gilbert 23.5%
Ryan 23%
Only four pitchers in the same sample have K-BB% under 8%
Vasquez 7%
Falter 7.5%
Quantrill 7.7%
Quintana 7.8%
Two of those guys pitched last night.
Vasquez - 5.67IP 8H 4ER 4R 2K 1BB
So he sucks pretty hard. He got the Merrill. He has a 4.55 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP on a 5.9% K-BB% over his last six starts.
Falter - 2.33IP 9H 7ER 7R 0K 0BB
That’s a 13.98 ERA for Falter in his 9.2 innings this year with six walks, six strikeouts, and -15 fantasy points scored. Nice.
I’ll use this opportunity to once again say shout out to the Pirates. They traded Falter to the Royals for Evan Sisk and Callan Moss.
Sisk is a reliever who has a 1.61 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP on a 22% K-BB% in 22.1 innings this year. Moss is a big boy hitting prospect with a .286/.371/.447 slash in his young minor league career.
The Bucs also stole Spencer Horwitz a couple of winters ago, trading Luis Ortiz in a three-team trade to get him. Horwitz has been awesome for the Pirates, hitting .275/.359/.439 with 18 homers and a steal in 650 PAs for the Bucs. He has a 13% K%, a 14% BB%, and a career-high 3.3% HR% this year. Looking like a points/OBP league top ten 1B.
And Luis Ortiz has been cast to the outer darkness due to rigging pitches for gambling purposes.
Spencer Strider - 5.0IP 3H 3ER 3R 5K 3BB
He gave up two homers in the first inning, but bounced back for a decent start.
The K% is good, the SwStr% is good, but everything else is pretty SUS. The command has been whack and he’s given up six homers on 449 pitches. His fastball now has a .393 xwOBA allowed with a .550 SLG and just a 92.6 Stuff+. But he’s made it work with the slider/curve/changeup trio behind it.
So he’ll have some good and he’ll have some bad. He’s definitely not a stud fantasy pitcher anymore. I’m confident in that.
Kyle Harrison - 6.0IP 4H 0ER 0R 2K 0BB
Two strikeouts for Harrison on just four whiffs! He had 14, 17, and 19 whiffs in his previous three starts, but the Cardinals had his number yesterday - at least in terms of getting the ball on the bat. They hit for a decent .327 xwOBA, but couldn’t get the ball out of the yard or the big hit with men on, so Harrison had another good start for you ratios.
I still think he’s a screaming sell high.
Emerson Hancock - 6.0IP 1H 0ER 0R 3K 2BB
Almost the exact same thing for Hancock. One hit, no runs, quality start with ease. But three strikeouts and two walks. Six whiffs.
The fastball still has good numbers, but it’s looking significantly worse in the second half of his season. So hitters are picking up on the funky release point and the results haven’t been quite as crisp.
His last four since that 14-strikeout barrage: 18.5% K%, 9.8% BB%, 10.9% SwStr%, .347 xwOBA. Be careful with the Hancockinator.
Two surprisingly good starts:
Shane Baz - 7.0IP 7H 1ER 1R 9K 2BB
He has been decent in the box score lately. A 2.25 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in these last three outings, all quality starts. But there have only been 19 strikeouts and there have been eight walks in those 20 innings. So the underlying stuff isn’t really agreeing.
Sean Burke - 7.0IP 3H 2ER 2R 8K 2BB
He’s had a few spike starts, and his K-BB% is above 15% now. The .309 xwOBA is pretty solid as well. His 4.57 JA ERA is bad, but the 3.56 SIERA is pretty good. You can’t trust him, but he’s probably around a league-average pitcher. He’s pretty similar to Tanner Bibee, and he’s around 35% owned. So I’d be looking to grab Burke in deep leagues where available.
Three guys obliterated:
David Peterson - 5.0IP 11H 6ER 6R 4K 3BB
Jason Alexander - 6.0IP 6H 9ER 9R 4K 2BB
Sandy Alcantara - 5.67IP 10H 8ER 8R 4K 1BB
I don’t think many people are starting these guys in fantasy leagues. But Peterson ruined my DFS night at that $5,700 price tag. I thought he could get 13 points or something like that but he had one of the worst outings of his career against the Reds.
A handful of hitters went bonkers:
Rosario hit two bombs to bring his season total to six. He was looking pretty good early on but hasn’t played much for the Yankees, and I don’t think that’s likely to change. But he does have a 12.9% Brl% this year with a lot more bat speed and a .340 xwOBA.
The Dodgers went for 15 runs, powered by three homers from Pages and Betts combined. Betts has just 92 PA this year with that long IL stint in the middle of it.
Just not doing a lot in the home run or steals category, at least not until last night. But the 10.8% Brl% is good and he’s still making elite levels of contact, and the Dodgers offense is a big boost to him. And they’ll be an especially big boost when and if Ohtani, Tucker, and Freeman get going.
Kyle Tucker has really been disappointing for the last year now. Maybe he’s just not as good as we all thought? Maybe he’s never fully gotten healthy?
He was awesome in 2024 before the big injury with Houston, and he’s never gotten back to an OPS above .850 since then. The 22-25 was nice last year, but it was pretty front-loaded. Since the All Star Break last year, he’s hit .245/.345/.398 with just four homers and four steals in 230 PAs. That’s like a 10-10 pace with a poor batting average.
So you know he’ll figure it out in August and go win the World Series MVP.
The massive breakout season for James Wood is happening. 15 bombs already, nine steals, and a .276 AVG. He’s scored 49 runs in 56 games while driving in 37. Total stud.
Still striking out a lot (30%) and now pulling it (9% Air Pull%), but the skills are playing through that. I don’t think he’ll hit .275 for long, and his 25.5% Brl% is probably unsustainble as well, so you could probably sell high in redraft and have that work out for you. But he’s one of the most valuable players in the fantasy game this year and maybe you just ride that out.
Okay that’ll do it!