MLB Daily Notes - May 28
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis
Check out yesterday’s box scores here
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I got back into my DFS roots last night by playing a single cash lineup in a bunch of double ups and head to heads. That’s how I would always play, going back to my days playing NBA in like 2015-2018 when I first got into it. Recently, I’ve realized it’s a tough way to play. You’re playing against good players who play the best plays and use projections wisely, and the host is taking an 11% cut of the money off the top. So you have to be really good to actually make money that way.
But it is a lot more fun when putting together the lineup. Last night was an easy choice with deGrom + Ohtani at pitcher, but some of the hitter picks really gave me a sweat. I hate Eric Wagaman at first but then talked myself onto Spencer Horwitz and that sent me re-doing the rest of the lineup. So I ended up with this:
The pitchers did fine. I got a big game from Brandon Lowe at 14% owned, and a clutch late dinger from Kody Clemens at 4% to send me into the money.
But that’s the butt-pucker with double ups. You either double your money or lose it all.
I played a $50 and a $5, and I want to see how the ownerships differ at those different price points. You’d expect the $50 to be much more competitive. Five players were much higher owned in the $50 than in the $5:
The Bat X loved those Red Sox (vs. Elder) and Rays (vs. Gibson), so I think that’s where this comes from. The big players use projections, and the Bat X are the biggest projections on the market. So you can predict what the field will do pretty well.
Here’s the pitcher ownership comparison:
27% of the field playing Cole or Mize is definitely a sign of a pretty weak field. I thought it was obvious that the players were deGrom and Ohtani. It didn’t work out that way, because Cole smashed and Mize was smashing before an injury.
But yeah, it seems like the obvious rule applies. The $5 field will be a lot softer than the $50. But it’s tough to get a ton of action at those lower dollar values. I’ll probably be playing these double ups again for awhile, because it really is a lot of fun to put the single lineup together and track how it’s going.
Yesterday’s Pitchers
Eury “The Eurinator” Perez had it going with NINE strikeouts and 18 whiffs on 73 pitches, but then he left after the fourth with a hamstring thing or something.
4.0IP 3H 0ER 0R 9K 0BB
He was taking a leak all over the Blue Jays but the stream had to get cut off. No walks in two straight outings now, and his velo has been up lately.
There are still problems with the command (10.6% BB%) and the home run issue (15% Brl% allowed), but you shouldn’t have been cutting Eury. The talent level is near the top of the league and his stuff is just nasty. If he can unlock some command, he’ll be an ace.
Chad Patrick had 15 whiffs with a 24.6% SwStr%.
4.0IP 5H 1ER 1R 4K 1BB
Nothing special about the box score line, but check out the JA ERA plot:
These plots are super helpful in identifying pitchers pitcher better or worse lately. JA ERA is using SwStr%, Ball%, and GB%/FB% stuff to put an ERA-like number on the guy, and this shows you how it’s gone in the last five starts every time.
So what you can do then is put the date slider back to a recent range and see the numbers update:
What I didn’t realize until right now is that he’s been in the bullpen. His last five outings:
So this immediately gets thrown out. I don’t care much about a 19.3% SwStr% if it’s coming from relief appearances. I think I got him confused with Brandon Sproat. Yeah, I definitely did.
BUT Logan Henderson is on the IL now, so the Brewers need some BULK. And Patrick can get outs. I’m not sure if he can get them over six innings at a time, but he’s not a horrible pitcher. Moving on now.
Jacob deGrom got 20 whiffs.
6.0IP 4H 2ER 2R 6K 1BB
Yordan took him deep. He’s given up at least one homer in 8 of his 11 starts this year. And he’s given up SEVEN in his last three starts. So that’s a problem. But the 70:12 K:BB and 1.01 WHIP limits a lot of those to solo jobs.
deGrom has a 29% K%, a 5% BB%, and a 24.4% K-BB%. If the 1.96 HR/9 comes down to his recent career average (1.0), he’ll be cooking and probably be near the SP1 in fantasy leagues during whatever stretch he does that for.
Gerrit Cole had ten strikeouts, which I did not see coming.
6.67IP 4H 0ER 0R 10K 0BB
Let’s do the pitch mix:
Pumping strikes with the fastball (29% Ball%), but not getting the whiffs (8.7% SwStr%). That’s fine. Called strikes are just as good, just not as reliable to carry through down the road. And sometimes hitters just don’t swing, so they can’t whiff. The .267 xwOBA on the pitch on the first 69 pitches is a good sign.
And the slider was dominant last night with a 32% SwStr%. That’s at 24% for the year, and an .086 xwOBA.
Plus a changeup, curveball, and sinker. It seems like Cole remembers how to pitch. And his command has been awesome with a 52.3% Strike%, 27.8% Ball%, and no walks last night after allowing three free passes in his debut.
So Gerrit Cole, Zack Wheeler, and Shane McClanahan have all somewhat overcome the odds in bouncing back from pretty gnarly injuries. At least, they have so far. Long way to go, but those who took the hurt pitcher discount are pretty pleased with themselves right now - AREN’TCHA?
Casey Mize - 4.0IP 2H 0ER 0R 6K 1BB
He was cruising until getting pulled to an injury. 11 whiffs, 19% SwStr%, 36.2% Ball%. It was a groin thing, so that could linger or put him back on the IL.
It seems to me like we’re getting to the point of the season where things even out. The early-season surprise pitchers are sucking now.
So I want to point out to you Casey Mize truthers that the guy isn’t suddenly becoming a stud pitcher. It’s been like ten years since he was a top prospect, that’s not a consideration anymore.