MLB Daily Notes - May 2nd
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis
The Daily Notes are the flagship resource of MLB Data Warehouse. Every morning, Jon breaks down the current goings on in the fantasy baseball world, and an automated daily report gets you up to date on key stats and trends. Become a paid subscriber at MLB Data Warehouse to get this unlocked in your inbox every morning!
I’m not happy about the Will Warren thing. I thought I was being real sharp last night fading Warren and Wheeler in favor of Bryan Woo (at home) and Cole Ragans. But now I look like an idiot, again.
→ 6.33IP 3H 1ER 2R 9K 1BB
Warren now has a 30% K% and a 5% BB% despite a 10.4% SwStr% and a 35.9% Ball%. It doesn’t make any sense.
He’s getting a million called strikes.
That’s not all luck or anything like that. It’s a good thing, and a skill that certain dudes have. But to me it makes a high strikeout rate really hard to believe.
Let’s look at last year’s SPs under an 11% SwStr% with 20+ GS and see who had the highest strikeout rates:
So Will Warren himself is right there at 24% K%. That means the called strike thing isn’t new, but his K% is six points higher than last year with the same SwStr%. His overall Strike% is up three points, and he’s mixing pitches well:
But I’m not still not convinced. He dominated lefties last night and got his season numbers into a better place, but it’s still a 9.0% SwStr% and 10.6% Brl% against them.
ZACK WHEELER - 6.0IP 3H 1ER 1R 8K 2BB
Velo was under 94 on the fastball, down almost one mile per hour from last time. But it again didn’t matter.
16.3% SwStr%, 35% Ball%, .249 xwOBA allowed. The fastball has been great, even at 94.3mph. Some guys know how to pitch no matter how many ribs they have, I guess.
Four other high SwStr% guys from last night:
Misiorowski left in the sixth with a hamstring cramp. He had a no hitter going with just two walks and a 58.8% Strike%.
Emmet Sheehan fell victim to whatever kind of magic run the Cardinals are on. He gave up a couple dingers, but an 8:0 K:BB with a 19.6% SwStr% is obviously pretty nice to see.
Eury Perez also had a huge, huge 56.2% Strike%, bu gave up two runs and two walks and wasn’t efficient enough to pitch into the sixth.
Christian Scott - 5.0IP 3H 2ER 3R 8K 0BB
Much better stuff fo Scott with an 8:0 K:BB. Only 74 pitches. But it was all very good.
Great day with the fastball, elite numbers on the sweeper.
Noah Schultz - 6.0IP 2H 0ER 0R 2K 3BB
Just six whiffs. His SwStr% is down to 9.5%.
And he’s a little wild with a 40% BB%. But he’s not been hit hard (30% Hard%, .288 xwOBA, .173 BABIP), and that makes it work. I think he’s here to stay in the White Sox rotation. There certainly aren’t many guys better than him in that org, if any.
MacKenzie Gore - 3.2IP 4H 3ER 3R 3K 3BB
He has just been bad since his really nice start to the year. The game logs:
Way too many walks lately, that’s 13 walks in his last four starts.
The strikeout rate is still nice, but the walk rate is bad and the efficiency hasn’t been good at all. This is what you get with Gore, I guess. I think the park factor can really help him out, but he’s gotta throw strikes. Frustrating dude to own.
Cole Ragans - 5.1IP 4H 4ER 4R 8K 3BB
I don’t know what to say about Ragans! It wasn’t that bad, but he came out and gave up some runs early on and walked three. He’s not crisp this year.
Bryan Woo - 6.0IP 7H 6ER 6R 2K 0BB
This is looking really bad for Woo. A 17.5% K% with an 11.8% SwStr% and a .319 xwOBA.
This guy was really, really hard to hit for his career, but now hitters seem to be doing fine. The 48% hard hit rate, the .413 SLG, the 22% LD% and 36% FB% and 10.1% Brl%!
I might start worrying a bit if I had the guy.
The Suck List
Zac Gallen: 3.67IP 7H 6ER 6R 3K 3BB
Brady Singer: 3.33IP 7H 4ER 4R 1K 2BB
Jack Flaherty: 3.67IP 5H 4ER 4R 4K 3BB
Grant Holmes: 5.0IP 7H 5ER 6R 4K 3BB
Cade Povich: 4.0IP 7H 5ER 5R 4K 2BB
Joey Cantillo: 4.0IP 5H 4ER 4R 2K 3BB
Cut ‘em all, man!
Cade Povich, minors vs. Majors:
And I don’t know what’s going on with Jack Flaherty! It’s a contract year man, wake up!
He’s had his struggles in his career, but the K-BB% has usually been very good.
It’s 5% now as he just has no command with a 17.7% BB% and a 43.3% Ball%. There are seven 5+ GS SPs with a 40%+ Ball%:
It doesn’t work, you can’t do that.
The LOWEST ball rates:
If you can put together low ball rates with high SwStr%, you’re a stud. Here’s everybody with a SwStr% above 12.5% and a Ball% below 34%.
Reid Detmers and Ryan Weathers should be more owned than they are. I saw a tweet yesterday about Weathers being like 40% owned on ESPN. I didn’t believe it, but I didn’t check it. But now I’ll check it.
My goodness it’s even worse… he hasn’t pitched in a bit, but he’ll start today against Baltimore. He’s been very good.
Detmers also goes today, against the Blue Jays.
Hitters
I feel like I spent 80% of my life here looking at pitchers. By the time I get through the notable performances, I want to be done writing! We can look at the fantasy point scoring leaders from yesterday:
That one included minor leaguers, but I saw Jose Siri so I kept it! Also Zac Veen! Remember the spring hype on that guy?