MLB Daily Notes - May 3
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis
The Daily Notes are the flagship resource of MLB Data Warehouse. Every morning, Jon breaks down the current goings on in the fantasy baseball world, and an automated daily report gets you up to date on key stats and trends. Become a paid subscriber at MLB Data Warehouse to get this unlocked in your inbox every morning!
We’ve got some Sunday morning notes for you today. I try to take it easy on Sundays. You won’t find much stuff from me on Sundays, and I told Trevor at the beginning of the year that we won’t worry about DFS or prop stuff on Sundays just to give everybody a rest.
But the kids are still asleep and I saw some wild pitching performances in the box scores from last night.
Emerson Hancock struck out 14 Royals!
→ 7.0IP 6H 1ER 1R 14K 0BB
He went back to the heavy four-seamer usage and the pitch was incredible again with a 22% SwStr% and a 66% Strike%. This time, the sweeper dominated as well.
I dropped this dude for Chase Dollander last week. Yikes!
His season numbers:
Pretty strong stuff. It was looking like he was losing the magic before this start, he had low whiffs and low strikeouts for a few in a row, but last night makes up for it all in the season-long numbers.
The question remains about what the Mariners do when Bryce Miller is ready to return. It definitely seems like Hancock’s a lot better than Luis Castillo. And dudes get hurt a lot.
But they’re not going to cut Castillo, right? And he can’t go to the minors? So it’s bullpen or nothing with him. Hancock probably still has option years on his contract and might make more sense as a bullpen guy. So we’ll see, but the season long numbers on Hancock would tell you to start him for now.
While we’re on the Mariners stuff, we should look at Kade Anderson. I think this is the #1 pitching prospect in baseball now.
Tim had him #7 among pitchers, but that would be #3 among non-debuted pitchers. Here’s his pitcher ranks (the ranks are overall ranks when hitters are included) from the pre-season:
But Anderson has not been touched by anybody in AA.
38:4 K:BB with one run allowed on 13 hits in 24.1 innings. At least a handful of strikeouts in every outing with 8+ in three of the five.
The Mariners have been known to skip AAA for their pitchers as well, since it’s the Pacific Coast League and it’s really had to pitch there. Anderson is 21 in his first pro season, so he’s probably not banging down the MLB door. We might not see him at all, but he’s putting up ridiculous numbers and he already looks like a big league ready arm.
While we’re looking at minor league guys, here’s Robbie Snelling:
Three out of four starts now with 5+ innings, zero runs, and 9+ strikeouts.
It’s time, I’d say!
Max Meyer
→ 7.0IP 1H 0ER 0R 7K 1BB
He keeps getting it done for the fish. Maybe the breakout is on.
Yesterday:
The fastball worked! And when the fastball works, he’s going to be putting up elite results. Thes weeper and slider are gerat, we know that, but he’s always been held back by the heater.
Season:
So you can see the fastball is at a 98.1 Stuff+ with a 7.1% SwStr%. What’s new this year is a 53% Strike% and 29% Ball%. So he’s throwing it in the zone and mostly limiting damage with it (.360 xwOBA is high, though). That’s going to be a problem for him, but it’s looking good enough to get by, and he’s only having to throw it ~20% of the time.
Maybe we got a little overly excited about Chase Dollander. He had arguably the worst possible matchup at home against the Braves, but it did not go well.
→ 5.1 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 3 SO, 3 BB
Still plenty of whiffs on the fastball (22.5% SwStr%), but nothing else worked at all.
You can forgive him for this. If you had him on your team for this one, you shouldn’t be cutting him now. He’ll go pitch in Philly next. And I think we should view him (for now) as a guy who you start on the road every time. But we’ll see. Maybe the few big outings at the beginning will prove to be a fakeout.
Chris Sale didn’t have problems with Coors, by the way.
→ 7.0IP 3H 1ER 1R 11K 3BB
He’s one of the greatest pitchers all time when it’s May. And I don’t really believe in monthly splits and stuff. But maybe there’s something to it. Maybe this is the month where he really gets physically into shape.
Chris Sale xFIP, K% by Month
→ Mar-Apr 3.42, 27%
→ May 2.83, 33%
→ June 2.67, 32%
→ July 2.89, 30%
→ Aug 2.74, 33%
→ Sep 3.08, 29%
It makes some sense that May would be a peak month for a pitcher. They’re fully built up and back on the routine, but it hasn’t been long enough where they’re worn down.
Griffin Jax
→ 2.67IP 1H 0ER 0R 2K 1BB
The Rays have handled this in a super strange way. They trade for the guy last summer, and they have all offseason to have him switch to being a starter. But they don’t do it. Then he gets thrashed from a relief role for a few weeks, and now they’re moving him to the rotation. I guess the Ryan Pepiot season-ending injury was the deciding factor in this one.
Here’s how Jax went about it:
A few NULLS in there.. but he threw a lot more fastballs than usual at 47%. That’s heavy four-seamer usage. No single pitch other than that fastball above 11%, but he threw at least five other pitch types at them multiple times.
So that’s interesting, Jax has always had a good fastball and way more secondary pitches than most relievers. So this guy can definitely be a starter in the Majors. Will he be good enough for fantasy league consideration? That remains to be seen, and we can’t really judge much based off a 45-pitch outing, but that count will continue to grow and he’ll be humming 80+ pitches by June. It could work pretty well, so I’d keep an eye on that.
Reid Detmers is a reliever turned starter. Or a starter turned reliever turned starter.
→ 6.33IP 9H 3ER 3R 8K 0BB
You love the 8:0 K:BB and 16.8% SwStr% with a 28.4% Ball%. But he got hit. It was a .242 xwOBA yesterday with a .474 BABIP. So probably some bad luck.
I’m still feeling really good about Detmers.
Not many dudes have a 14.3% SwStr% with a 33% Ball%. It’s a 21% K-BB%, which you know is great. He’s a guy to own in all leagues, I think.
Sean Burke
→ 6.0IP 4H 0ER 0R 8K 1BB
Time to give this guy some love! My man has a 16.4% K-BB% with a 0.53 HR/9 and a 1.01 WHIP to go with that somewhat lucky 2.67 ERA!
The damage has been limited. And remember, this is a guy who walked the world in the first half of last year but really got it together late.
Over his last 133 innings:
→ 4.07 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 25.2% K%, 8.4% BB%
That’s a lot better than people think, and he should be more owned than where he’s at.
The 9.3% SwStr% is bad, but he’st hrowing strike and keeping the ball away from the barrel.
He’s like a 15-team league guy.
Connelly Early
→ 4.0IP 6H 5ER 5R 3K 3BB
He’s just not that good, I guess.
A 9.3% K-BB% is cuttable. We’re far enough into the season now where I think you start shedding these guys in a 10/12-teamer.
SP CUTTABLES
Here’s the list. It’s everybody over 50% owned with 500+ pitches thrown and a single-digit K-BB%.
I can get wanting to stick with Sandy Alcantara because he’s often been good without a great K-BB%, and his 7.8% BB% is re-assuring.
It’s probably time for Kyle Bradish, though. A 22% K% and a 13% B% now with a bad 11% SwStr%.