MLB Daily Notes - May 5
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis
The Daily Notes are the flagship resource of MLB Data Warehouse. Every morning, Jon breaks down the current goings on in the fantasy baseball world, and an automated daily report gets you up to date on key stats and trends. Become a paid subscriber at MLB Data Warehouse to get this unlocked in your inbox every morning!
Davis Martin is quickly becoming a menace to me. It wouldn’t be a problem if I didn’t play DFS, but I do play DFS, and he’s been killing me.
Last night vs. LAA:
→ 7.0IP 5H 0ER 0R 10K 0BB
He’s now second best in the league in ERA with a mark of 1.64. His WHIP is at 1.02. And, to his credit, the K-BB% is now above 20%. He was at 23% before last night, but a 10:0 K:BB will do wonders for your line.
The SwStr% is up to 12.6%, which isn’t bad, and he throws a lot of strikes.
The bad numbers are in red. He doesn’t get a ton of ground balls, and he’s been hit hard 46% of the time, and yet he’s given up just two homers for a 4% HR/FB. That’s lucky. The colder temperatures are probably helping.
But okay, he’s got sixp itches and good command. The JA SIERA is great at 2.85 and the JA ERA isn’t all that bad at 3.79. So I guess he can hang. But I’m still not buying it. He’ll begin giving up homers at some point, and he’s a guy who had a 17% K% in 143 innings last year. And it’s not like he’s ripping at +3mph of velo or anything like that. He has a little more (+0.7mph), but we’re not seeing any drastic changes in the profile to faciliate this improvement.
Maybe the Angels are just really terrible. That could be another lesson to learn here.
Jose Soriano - 4.0IP 8H 5ER 5R 5K 3BB
The White Sox own this dude!
Soriano vs. White Sox: 9 IP, 8.00 ERA, 2.22 WHIP
Soriano vs. Not White Sox: 37.2 IP, 0.24 ERA, 0.82 WHIP
I had the right read on him in DFS last night. But I ended up panic spamming in the optimal lineup to my cash games and it lost because Soriano sucked like I knew he would.
He still did get 19 whiffs last week and a dozen last night against the White Sox, but he walked six and the White Sox teed off on him for four homers.
He’s now given up five homers this year after giving up 12 all of last year. The walk rate is up to 10.2% now, but the K% is still high at 29%.
I think it’s variance, familiarity with the White Sox having seen him last week, but also natural regression for Soriano. He hasn’t been in a good place to throw the curveball the last two, I guess, as the usage has been down. And that’s bad news for him. He needs that curveball.
Keep starting Soriano for now, but it’s possible we’ll see him get right back to who he was from 2023-2025.
Logan Gilbert - 6.0IP 6H 4ER 4R 4K 2BB
Maybe he’s just not good, I don’t know. I’d be pretty sick of this guy if I had him. His K% is now under 24%, and he’s just not getting strikes at a 47.9% Strike%.
Nothing is horrible in the profile, the BABIP is still a bit high at .322. But he’s been hit really hard with a .277 xBA and a .343 xwOBA.
Maybe he’s just too easy to predict. Maybe his fastball isn’t that good (5 HR, .431 xwOBA allowed). Maybe the magic has worn off of this Mariners pitching staff. I don’t know.
But look - he’s good, he’s always been good, and this was a really tough matchup against the Mariners.
Trevor McDonald - 7.0IP 2H 1ER 1R 8K 0BB
The Giants called this guy up, and we played him on DraftKings last night because he was $4,000 - the stone min. I was hoping for like ten points, he went out and ripped off 33.
I looked at McDonald in the slate preview yesterday. He’s a ground ball pitcher with a heavy sinker, but his command had been a disaster this year. He had 15 walks and 12 strikeouts in 15 AAA innings. Then he comes up to the Majors and goes 8:0 K:BB on the Padres.
63% sinkers!
But the Padres were FLUMMOXED by it. A 65% Strike%, a 26% Ball%, an 80% GB%, a .174 xwOBA. And then he rocked five whiffs with the slider.
A sinker + slider thing can work. It won’t turn into a high K%, but apparently that doesn’t matter since all of the league’s best ERA dudes aren’t striking a ton of guys out!
I would not add McDonald in standard leagues, but he’s a FAAB guy for deeper leagues this weekend. Hopefully we can get a second look at him on Saturday or Sunday before the FAAB runs.
But just know this - this is not a budding superstar prospect. He looks like an MLB SP4 to me.
Payton Tolle - 7.0IP 1H 0ER 2R 8K 1BB
Only nine whiffs for Tolle and a 10.8% SwStr%. He went full efficiency mode, neeidng just 83 pitches to get 21 outs against the Tigers. He might have pitched the eighth, but there was a rain delay.
I was paying attention to this game cause I have this dude in my main two leagues. I couldn’t watch it because I blacked out… and I didn’t want to pop out the HDMI cord again just for a non-Pirates game.
For the season, he has a 25.4% K-BB% with a 14.8% SwStr%, a 52% Strike%, and a 32.8% Ball%. That’s elite stuff. He’s given up just a .228 xwOBA and one homer.
His four-seamer is awesome, and the sinker/cutter/curve/change being used 54% of the time behind it is great to see. He was way too dependent on the four-seamer last year, but he’s changed a lot and looks like a very good MLB starter so far.
Chase Petty - 5.2IP 4H 3ER 3R 1K 2BB
Really tough situation to be put into. Season MLB debut against the Cubs, and the game start time got moved. But Petty wasn’t good at all. I lost some people some money on saying he’d clear 2.5 strikeouts. Just seven whiffs, a 9.3% SwStr%, and a 41.3% Strike%. But he survived, and hey, the Cubs ALMOST LOST A GAME.
That’s a pretty gross arsenal to me. No thanks on anything involving Petty.
Edward Cabrera - 6.0IP 9H 3ER 3R 8K 2BB
Strikeouts are better now (15 in his last two outings), but he has a bad 1.28 WHIP and he got hit around a bit yesterday.
The SwStr% is up to 13.2% now, he has 32 whiffs in his last two starts. The BABIP was .467 last night. So he’s looking better and you should overall be encouraged by these last two starts from Cab.
Janson Junk - 5.1IP 5H 1ER 1R 6K 0BB
Chris Paddack is doing his best to get Robbie Snelling up to the Majors. But Junk is not playing alone. He continues to put up good marks in the box score and keep the Marlins in games.
I think it’ll be Braxton Garrett getting the call up soon to take the place of Paddack. But they have Sandy, Eury, Meyer, and Junk seemingly locked in there. So there’s only one spot until an injury would happen. Garrett, Snelling, and White are all pitching fantastically well in AAA. But Garrett gets the nod due to the seniority and the contractual situation. Even though the skill level clearly goes 1) White 2) Snelling 3) Garrett
Hitters
MURAKAMI
He now has the fourth-highest HR% of the last six seasons (100+ PA):
Murakami’s contact rate is 56.6%. You basically have a 50/50 chance he makes contact when he swings.
Let’s tell the story with scatter plots.
First, Cont% vs. K%:
The worst Contact% hitter (120+ PA for that chart) in the league, and that naturally leads to a 30%+ K%.
That’s the bad news. The good news begins now. He has good bat speed:
Now the EVs. This is EV90 vs. Brl%:
Elite placement for Murakami. He’s also in a great place in LA vs. EV:
So he’s there with Judge/Yordan/Schwarber/etc when he’s putting the ball in play.
His swing decisions are fine:
A 60% Zone Swing% (low), but a low chase rate (21%). So he’s properly selective, we could say.
Zone Swing% isn’t the best stat. Some strikes are pitches you’re better off not swinging at. A 2-0 pitch on the corner isn’t one you want to go after. Take the strike and hope you get a more hittable one next time. This stat doesn’t capture that.
When we look at pitches right down broadway (middle-middle), Murakami swings at 80% of them (above average) and has a barrel per swing rate of 20.5% (8th best in baseball).
So he knows what he’s looking for, and he swings in a way to optimize contact.
At the end of the day, though, the K% is bound to catch up to him. I checked all hitters over a 30% K% the last six seasons, and he has the third-highest wOBA of the bunch:
The walks do help the wOBA. And maybe this guy is just a Giancarlo Stanton type hitter who will consistently punish balls all contact and post elite home run rates his whole career.
Everyting will slip down a bit, but clearly this guy was a steal for the White Sox and a steal in fantasy leagues (especially OBP/points).
New Max Launch Velos
Blaze Alexander, Yesterday: 112.9 Previous High: 110.7
JJ Bleday, Yesterday: 112.6 Previous High: 111.2
^ Two new max EVs set yesterday. JJ Bleday started the year in AAA, but got called up on 4/26 and has been crushing for the Reds since getting into the lineup:
→ .300/.417/.800, 16.7% K%, 16.7% BB%, 12.5% Brl%, .404 xBA, .527 xwOBA
It’s a great ballpark for him, obviously, and he’s probably a top 5-6 hitter for the Reds. He hit .341/.462/.659 in those 104 AAA PAs. Not sure what they were waiting for!
Blaze Alexander got traded to Baltimore this offseason, and hasn’t been a daily player for them with 84 PAs. He’s also not been good at all (.524 OPS, 30% K%), but hey he hit a ball harder than ever before last night.
Brice Turang is getting right:
Last 10 Days - xwOBA Over Expectation - Top 15
Aaron Judge: 39.0 PA, +0.211 xwOBA OE
Brice Turang: 37.0 PA, +0.193 xwOBA OE
Shea Langeliers: 34.0 PA, +0.191 xwOBA OE
Willson Contreras: 42.0 PA, +0.164 xwOBA OE
Ben Rice: 34.0 PA, +0.157 xwOBA OE
The power is still up with an 11.5% Brl% and a 106.2 EV90.
Fernando Tatis Jr. is still homerless.
His angles haven’t been good. He only has one expected homer.
So he’s pulled two of his barrels. Here they are:
So they’ve both been line drives, neither would have been a homer anywhere.
PULLED FLY BALL BARRELS LEADERS
9: Yordan
8: Buxton
7: Judge, Happ, Olson, Raleigh, Torkelson, Goodman
6: Muncy, Trout, Seager, STeer, Schwarber, Wetherholt
5: Montgomery, Soler, Schmitt, Baldwin, Vietnos, Bogaerts, Bauers, Ohtani, Moniak, M Vargas, McGonigle
Tatis has ZERO.
Buy low, though. He’s not a stud hitter anymore, but he’s a lot better than a zero homer dude.
HIGHEST xwOBA for Zero HR Hitters (100 PA)
Tatis .351
Nick Gonzales .344
Colt Keith .343
Arraez .302
Josh Smith .300
Hope you’re enjoying the daily notes this year!