MLB Daily Notes - May 6
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis
The Daily Notes are the flagship resource of MLB Data Warehouse. Every morning, Jon breaks down the current goings on in the fantasy baseball world, and an automated daily report gets you up to date on key stats and trends. Become a paid subscriber at MLB Data Warehouse to get this unlocked in your inbox every morning!
Sam Antonacci has stolen a base. Shout to this guy:
He asked that question yesterday afternoon, and I said YES. And that reminded me that this guy’s stolen base price on the sports book had gotten ridiculous. He’s been 10:1 sometimes, so I made a little cash on him swiping that bag last night at +880. He stole 48 bags in the minors last year and had five before being called up to the Majors. It was only a matter of time, and now I’m like seven Chipotle burritos richer.
I noticed that Antonacci has a pretty decent 11.5% Brl% this year. He’s hitting .276/.386/.431 with one (inside the park) homer and the one steal he notched last night. There’s a lot to like here:
There are only nine hitters with an xBA above .300 and a Brl% above 10%. Here they are in a gross-looking screenshot, but the column to the far right is xBA.
Pretty nice company for Antonacci!
Last ten days fantasy point scoring:
Aaron Judge
Matt Olson
Byron Buxton
Jordan Walker
Cody Bellinger
Kazuma Okamoto
Ozzie Albies
Bobby Witt Jr.
Pete Alonso
Bryce Harper
Mike Trout
Christian Walker
Willson Contreras
Alec Burleson
Casey Schmitt
Mickey Moniak
JJ Wetherholt
Ivan Herrera
Isaac Collins
Michael Busch
Is it the year of the veteran? Most of those dudes are in their 30s!
The Braves are just humming right along.
Without a ton of help from Acuna, who is now on the IL!
Huge numbers from Olson, Baldwin, Albies, and Harris this year. Maybe the Braves just really like to hit when the calendar year is divisible by three? Many people are saying!
Olson:
Olson is rolling this year with 13 homers, a 22.6% K%, and a 19.4% Brl%. A 19% Air Pull%, a 108.7 EV90! He hasn’t a bad year in a long time, but maybe we’re seeing that Olson ceiling once again.
Albies certainly has had bad seasons, including last year when things bottomed out to a .670 OPS. But we’ve seen big seasons from him in the past, and we’re getting another in the early going of 2026.
His K% is down to 12% and he’s getting to the air pulls (20%) as well. The EVs aren’t there (101.9 EV90, 4.7% Brl%), but he’s never been a high EV dude. The xwOBA OE is still underwater (-.007), but he’s making up for it in the way that he has in the past.
He’s still swinging a good bit (55%), and that’s going to lead to some slumps. But the wheels are up for Albies. It was a good year to invest in some Braves.
If they can manage to get Schwellenbach healthy again for the playoffs, they could give the Dodgers a run for their money.
Isaac Collins is also doing quite well lately. He has hit .467/.526/.867 in 19 May PAs. For the year, he has three homers and two steals on a .760 OPS.
Profile:
That’s not a good 29% K%/8% Brl% combo. This guy isn’t a power hitter, at least that’s not the kind of hitters he’s been in his young career.
Plate discipline business:
A .350 BABIP will help. And the 82% Zone Contact% isn’t anything great.
Batted ball profile:
Lots of hard hit ground balls and line drives. If we filter the EV percentiles box to fly balls, the bars shrink fast.
So I guess there’s nothing to say here. His recent surge seems largely luck driven. But remember that this guy was in the Rookie of the Year discussion for a bit with the Brewers last year. He’s a decent points league guy with a high walk rate, and his K% was a lot better at 21% last year (21% in May so far), so there’s some hope on that front.
And he stole 16 bags last year and has a 15% attempt rate in his MLB time. So he can be a 12-homer, 18-steal, .340 OBP guy. Underrated, I suppose. And the Royals liked him enough to trade for him, although it came pretty cheap. That only cost them Angel Zerpa. Don’t expect much slugging from Collins, but he’s doing well and is worthy of a higher ownership than 6%.
Top Pitchers
Cristopher Sanchez cooked the Athletics. His sinker velo was up more than one mph to previous.
23 whiffs, a 23.7% SwStr%, and a 10:1 K:BB.
Your top ten SP ADP this year:
Skubal (IL)
Skenes (sort of sucking)
Crochet (IL)
Yamamoto
Sanchez
Gilbert (sucking)
Brown (IL)
Sale
Woo (sucking)
deGrom (sort of sucking)
That’s a sub-50% hit rate to this point. Last year, that top three of Skubal/Skenes/Crochet all dominated all year long and were so, so valuable for fantasy leagues. So that gave us confidence to dive back in on them with a 1st-2nd round pick, but it’s not being repeated, and you’re probably not doing so well if you used a first rounder on any of those three dudes.
The top 10 SPs on the player rater this year:
Schlittler
Sale
Soriano
Fried
Davis Martin
Gavin Williams
Bryce Elder
Shohei Ohtani
Clay Holmes
Tyler Glasnow
The bold italics dudes are the ones you could’ve added on waivers in a lot of situations. None of those three will stay in the top ten, surely not, but it’s a good picture of the randomness involved with starting pitchers.
Bryce Elder has been drinking from the year divisible by three Braves well. Nine strikeouts for this guy last night.
→ 6.0IP 2H 2ER 2R 9K 3BB
A 2.02 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, a 23% K%, an 8% BB%, and a 14.9% K-BB%. That’s not a good K-BB%, but elite ratios. He’s given up just three homers in eight starts.
He’s locating well, I guess. An 8% HR/FB helps, and a .268 xwOBA also helps. And he should be given some credit for that, but not full credit. It can’t go on like this! How many guys have I been saying that about?
Elder’s K-BB% is up thee points from last year, which is substantial. He gave up 1.4 HR/9 in 2024 and 2025, and that’s shrunk to 0.6 this year. He’s 91% owned, which has been justified this year, obviously. I’d say he’s a massive sell high. We’ve gotta stick to principles here.
The Braves rotation (2 starts minimum):
Only Sale is above a 15% K-BB%, but the group has a 2.73 ERA in their starts.
The game is always changing. It’s not impossible that the sharp organizations are just ahead of the curve a bit. Hitters are no doubt trained and developed to fit into how the league currently pitches, so maybe the Braves and some other orgs are just taking the next step to combat that.
I don’t know, I’m not a pitching bro. But it’s a good year to be a Braves fan.
And I’ve always loved the Braves. Big fan of them. You guys know me. I’ll be rocking a Tomahawk hat by June.
Taj Bradley → 6.0IP 4H 2ER 2R 8K 2BB
After a two-start blip there in late April, Bradley is back. He has 20+ fantasy points in six of eight starts.
An 18% K-BB% is good, not elite. He’s gotten hit in the air (31% FB5) and hit hard (45% Hard Hit%) in a way you don’t like.
The fastball is pretty scary at this point. Just a 5.6% SwStr%, a 100 Stuff+, and a .377 xwOBA allowed. But the splitter… the splitter. The great equalizer pitch. It can take a guy to the next level. You’ve gotta keep starting Bradley, just be prepared for him to give up homers at a much higher rate as we progress.
He has super weird splits:
20% K% with the platoon advantage, 31% without it. He gets a bunch of whiffs against lefties too, but a 15.4% Brl%! He hasn’t allowed a ton of balls in play total tot hem, so that barrel rate is on a low denominator, but I’m holding onto my belief this ERA is going to bloat, and he’s a great guy to stack lefties against in DFS.
Eduardo Rodriguez - 7.0IP 2H 0ER 0R 7K 3BB
Lefties vs. the Pirates! 15 whiffs for E-Rod and he helped cash day three of the Bettin’ Bucs thing we’ve got going on.
He had a pretty slow start to the year, but he’s a decent pitcher and is definitely useful in good matchups for fantasy leagues. I’d say he’s a must own in 15 teamers with the current state of SP.
Elmer Rodriguez - 4.67IP 6H 3ER 3R 2K 4BB
Gerrit Cole is rehabbing, so I don’t think the other E-rod is long for the rotation. He has not given the Yankees much reason to stick with him.
No command, very few whiffs. Back to AAA bro! Better luck next time.
Kevin Gausman - 6.0IP 6H 2ER 2R 3K 1BB
It was not a good strikeouts matchup for him, and he got just three against the contact-heavy Rays. You can forgive a low strikeout outing against Tampa Bay. But he did what you need to do against them. It’s pretty easy to keep them in the yard, and he did that.
But the K% is a concern for Gausman.
→ First two starts: 21 K in 12 IP
→ Last six starts: 22 K in 34.2 IP (15% K%)
Maybe he’ll go on a run where the four-seamer and splitter are both crushing at the same time. That usually happens for Gausman. Nobody should have told you he was going to be a consistent dude. But a 3.28 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP is pretty great, so you're fine to keep rolling with him.
Sandy Alcantara - 4.33IP 8H 7ER 7R 5K 3BB
He just kinda sucks. He now has a 5.09 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, an 18.5% K%, and a 7.8% BB% since last year.
The problem was that he finished well last year and started well this year. So the middle part of the sandwich has been good, but overall I would not want this guy on a fantasy team. Especially where the strikeouts matter, which is most leagues.
It’s looking like Robbie Snelling is going to get the call. Braxton Garrett started in AAA last night. So that’s a must-add situation ahead of the weekend for Snelling.
Peter Lambert - 7.0IP 3H 0ER 0R 4K 4BB
Against the Dodgers! But a 4:4 K:BB isn’t good, and he didn’t have to face Ohtani or Betts in that one. I really doubt anybody started this guy last night. But he has a 2.42 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP now with a 24.7% K%… but wait for it… an 11.8% BB% now. He’s probably not good, but he’s done something that has worked three out of four starts.
George Kirby - 7.0IP 5H 2ER 2R 5K 1BB
Did well there against the Braves. But five strikeouts in seven innings does not move his K%, which is stuck at 19%. He’s struck out just 17 in his last four starts. And that’s going to catch up to him.
Last six starts for Kirby: 2.70 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 17% K%, 4.4% BB%.
You’d start to think that the league K% is way down this year. It seems like nobody is striking dudes out.
LEAGUE K% BY YEAR
2021: 23.2%
2022: 22.4%
2023: 22.7%
2024: 22.6%
2025: 22.2%
2026: 22.1%
It’s the same as last year. But we can say it’s down significantly from 2023-2024. That was the peak year, I guess. Pitchers had reached a new level and the hitters hadn’t adjusted yet. But now the hitters have adjusted. Or maybe they’re just more focused on contact. Everybody was going for barrels and that resulted in more whiffs, so maybe hitters have just
BARREL RATE BY YEAR:
2023: 8.1%
2024: 7.8%
2025: 8.6%
2026: 8.4%
So that’s not it… beats me, man. I’m just throwing numbers down randomly on the page this morning.
Framber Valdez - 3.0IP 9H 7ER 10R 3K 1BB
He got ejected. Probably a good call, because he wasn’t having a good night. What a ride it’s been for Framber:
Two starts under -5 points!
Let’s check on the hot pitcher tracker and then get out of here:
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Gavin Williams - +7.3% CSW%, -6.4 BB%
Davis Martin - +4.8% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Chase Dollander - +4.6% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Will Warren - +2.7% CSW%, -5.7 BB%
Sean Burke - +4.0% CSW%, -6.4 BB%
Ryan Weathers - +6.0% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Jacob Misiorowski - +3.9% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Jake Irvin - +4.7% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Jeffrey Springs - +2.4% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Max Meyer - +2.7% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
I remember developing this back in 2022 or 2023. The big debate I kept having with people is that the hot player doesn’t exist. Being very good in your last few days says nothing about your next few days. You’ll always do better predicting the player’s career averages rather than factoring in what they’ve done lately.
This hot pitcher tracker does it in a smart way, too! We’re not just looking at like low ERAs over the last three weeks. We’re zooming in CSW% and BB% to see which guys have improved a ton compared to their recent career averages. So Gavin Williams has a CSW% seven points higher and a walk rate six points lower in these last three weeks than he did before.
There are cases where that’s a sign of true improvement, and I think it probably is for Gavin. But all of the testing I’ve done with these “hot player trackers” show that there’s no real future predictive benefit in even knowing that information.
Hot doesn’t exist! Goodbye.