Introduction / Explanation For New Readers
This is probably the week where consumption of fantasy baseball content just really goes down the toilet. We have some college football coming up this weekend and we’re just two weeks from NFL week 1. So hey, thanks for sticking with me.
Also, a reminder that I’ll be churning out stuff for NFL, doing my best to bring you unique stuff - but that is way harder to do with football since there are more people writing stuff and way less data to go over - but I think the Tableau dashboard will be amazing and it’ll give us some opportunities - so keep checking back!
Nick Pivetta pitched really well again, this time against the Orioles in Williamsport. He went for a 16.5% SwStr% and really limited hard contact (or maybe the Orioles just refused to make any…) with a .194 xwOBA on the night. It was a pretty good two-start week for Pivetta who was pitching terribly prior, but good to see him take advantage of the Pirates and Orioles there.
Charlie Morton broke his streak of alternating good and bad starts, he’s now had two good ones in a row:
Ground Chuck went for a 17.5% SwStr% and struck out 44% of the hitters he faced. For the year he has a 31.2% CSW%, a 13.5% SwStr%, a 29.1% K%, and an 8.3% BB%. Really all of the numbers are pretty good. He’s given up more homers than usually (31.3 PA/HR), but it’s not a bad number either. It will be interesting to see where Morton gets drafted next year, if he comes back for another year - sure seems like he still has the arm for it.
Justin Steele also did the thing again, crushing with a 45% K%, striking out nine in six innings against the Brewers. It turns out that the Brewers are one of the best matchups in the league for a left-handed pitcher.
Team stats vs. LHP, worst OPS:
For the year now, Steele has a 24.5% K% and a 9.4% BB% - not good. But since July 1st, it’s a 29.1% K% and a 7.7% BB%. He’s been excellent at preventing hard contact with a 4.5% Brl% and a 91 PA/HR in that time, but he’s faced an incredibly easy schedule. Here are those matchups he’s seen since July 1st in chronological order
MIL, BAL, PHI, SF, MIA, WSH, WSH, MIL
The Phillies are pretty good and the Giants aren’t awful, but the rest of those lineups are cake walks - so I would expect worse numbers coming from Steele.
Shohei Ohtani sucked against the Tigers, but the story is that he had a stomach virus. Hopefully, that was truly the case because he lost some velocity on his fastball. We’ll have to take a look at him next weekend to see if he’s himself again - the last handful of starts for Ohtani have been short of elite.
Alright, we’ll wrap it there, check out the rest of the reports below for more insights. Have a pleasant Monday!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jakob Junis (SF): 14.1 SwStr%, 41.2 CSW%
2. Dean Kremer (BAL): 11.2 SwStr%, 33.8 CSW%
3. Charlie Morton (ATL): 17.5 SwStr%, 33.0 CSW%
4. Ryan Yarbrough (TB): 14.6 SwStr%, 32.9 CSW%
5. Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 12.4 SwStr%, 32.6 CSW%
6. Justin Steele (CHC): 16.9 SwStr%, 31.5 CSW%
7. Zach Thompson (PIT): 15.4 SwStr%, 30.8 CSW%
8. Zack Greinke (KC): 8.8 SwStr%, 29.4 CSW%
9. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 16.5 SwStr%, 29.1 CSW%
10. Sean Manaea (SD): 7.2 SwStr%, 29.0 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Charlie Morton - 6.0 IP - 74.75 JA Points
2. Justin Steele - 6.0 IP - 72.75 JA Points
3. Nick Pivetta - 5.67 IP - 72.5 JA Points
4. Jakob Junis - 6.67 IP - 62.25 JA Points
5. Ryan Yarbrough - 4.33 IP - 47.5 JA Points
6. Jose Urquidy - 7.0 IP - 47.5 JA Points
7. Alek Manoah - 6.0 IP - 45.0 JA Points
8. Nestor Cortes - 6.0 IP - 44.5 JA Points
9. Joe Ryan - 6.33 IP - 43.5 JA Points
10. Ryan Pepiot - 5.67 IP - 41.5 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 15.0 GS - 56.34 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 24.0 GS - 53.08 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 23.0 GS - 51.62 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 21.0 GS - 50.44 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 24.0 GS - 50.43 JA Points
6. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 24.0 GS - 48.6 JA Points
7. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 25.0 GS - 48.4 JA Points
8. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 17.0 GS - 47.23 JA Points
9. Blake Snell (SD) - 16.0 GS - 46.88 JA Points
10. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 19.0 GS - 44.67 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Joe Ryan's SL velo (14 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 84.1
Joe Ryan's CH velo (11 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 86.3
Sean Manaea's CH velo (16 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 86.7
Justin Steele's SL velo (23 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 83.7
Nick Pivetta's SL velo (45 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 87.2
Alek Manoah's SL velo (35 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 83.1
Jose Urquidy's CU velo (14 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 79.3
Shohei Ohtani's FF velo (28 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 95.8
JP Sears's SL velo (24 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 78.5
Mike Minor's CH velo (24 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 82.7
Eduardo Rodriguez's CH velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 83.6
Nestor Cortes's SL velo (19 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 75.3
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Charlie Morton's CU usage (47.4%) up 10.2 points
Dean Kremer's SI usage (17.5%) up 15.9 points
Huascar Brazoban's FC usage (50.0%) up 17.9 points
Jakob Junis's SI usage (43.5%) up 13.7 points
Kohei Arihara's SI usage (31.0%) up 14.5 points
Merrill Kelly's SI usage (26.8%) up 10.1 points
Mike Minor's SL usage (34.4%) up 12.2 points
Nick Pivetta's SL usage (44.6%) up 24.7 points
Patrick Corbin's SI usage (64.9%) up 26.1 points
Ryan Pepiot's FF usage (71.1%) up 17.2 points
Ryan Yarbrough's CU usage (47.6%) up 23.0 points
Zach Thompson's CU usage (35.9%) up 17.0 points
Zach Thompson's FF usage (28.2%) up 10.5 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jacob deGrom - 81 TBF, 36.7% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 98 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Triston McKenzie - 101 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Robbie Ray - 78 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Framber Valdez - 83 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 82 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Jakob Junis - 85 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Adam Wainwright - 105 TBF, 32.0% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 98 TBF, 31.8% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 97 TBF, 31.5% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jacob deGrom - 81 TBF, 45.7% K%
Charlie Morton - 98 TBF, 38.8% K%
Spencer Strider - 82 TBF, 37.8% K%
Justin Steele - 88 TBF, 37.5% K%
Blake Snell - 92 TBF, 37.0% K%
Robbie Ray - 78 TBF, 34.6% K%
Zac Gallen - 97 TBF, 32.0% K%
Triston McKenzie - 101 TBF, 31.7% K%
Cristian Javier - 90 TBF, 27.8% K%
Corbin Burnes - 97 TBF, 27.8% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jacob deGrom - 81 TBF, 44.4% K-BB%
Charlie Morton - 98 TBF, 33.7% K-BB%
Justin Steele - 88 TBF, 33.0% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 92 TBF, 32.6% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 82 TBF, 30.5% K-BB%
Triston McKenzie - 101 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Zac Gallen - 97 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
Lance Lynn - 94 TBF, 25.5% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 99 TBF, 24.2% K-BB%
Max Scherzer - 108 TBF, 23.1% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 83 TBF, 73.7% GB%
Zac Gallen - 97 TBF, 66.1% GB%
Antonio Senzatela - 88 TBF, 65.7% GB%
Logan Webb - 107 TBF, 63.8% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 95 TBF, 62.7% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 79 TBF, 61.4% GB%
Alex Cobb - 100 TBF, 59.4% GB%
Shane Bieber - 103 TBF, 58.9% GB%
Chris Bassitt - 108 TBF, 57.0% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 110 TBF, 56.0% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Archer - 72 TBF, 30.6 K%, 6.9 BB%, 53.3% GB%
JT Brubaker - 65 TBF, 29.2 K%, 6.2 BB%, 48.8% GB%
Jeffrey Springs - 62 TBF, 29.0 K%, 4.8 BB%, 56.1% GB%
Jordan Montgomery - 63 TBF, 27.0 K%, 4.8 BB%, 52.4% GB%
Lance Lynn - 94 TBF, 27.7 K%, 2.1 BB%, 47.7% GB%
Luis Castillo - 111 TBF, 27.0 K%, 6.3 BB%, 45.8% GB%
Zac Gallen - 97 TBF, 32.0 K%, 6.2 BB%, 66.1% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Triston McKenzie - +5.5% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Charlie Morton - +4.0% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Lance Lynn - +2.5% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Dean Kremer - +3.8% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Justin Steele - +2.2% CSW%, -5.1 BB%
Corey Kluber - +3.5% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Daniel Lynch - +2.1% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
JT Brubaker - +4.4% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Austin Voth - +3.8% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Max Fried - +4.7% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Michael Wacha - +6.8% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Alec Bohm (PHI) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Andrew Benintendi (NYY) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Evan Longoria (SF) 5 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Joey Meneses (WSH) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Keston Hiura (MIL) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Riley Greene (DET) 4 PA, 2 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Evan Longoria - 5.0 PA - 72.0 JA Points
2. Riley Greene - 4.0 PA - 69.0 JA Points
3. Jake Fraley - 5.0 PA - 69.0 JA Points
4. Seiya Suzuki - 4.0 PA - 60.0 JA Points
5. Alec Bohm - 5.0 PA - 51.0 JA Points
6. Andrew Benintendi - 4.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
7. Whit Merrifield - 4.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
8. Matt Olson - 4.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
9. Lars Nootbaar - 5.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
10. Jean Segura - 2.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 426.0 PA - 140.47 JA Points
2. Juan Soto (SD) - 513.0 PA - 136.84 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 513.0 PA - 132.63 JA Points
4. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 496.0 PA - 115.65 JA Points
5. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 528.0 PA - 112.35 JA Points
6. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 403.0 PA - 109.68 JA Points
7. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 271.0 PA - 104.21 JA Points
8. Will Smith (LAD) - 431.0 PA - 101.25 JA Points
9. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 449.0 PA - 95.23 JA Points
10. D.J. LeMahieu (NYY) - 476.0 PA - 93.87 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Nelson Cruz (WSH) - 113.3mph - home_run
Lewin Diaz (MIA) - 112.0mph - double
Jake Fraley (CIN) - 111.7mph - foul
George Springer (TOR) - 111.6mph - single
Riley Greene (DET) - 111.0mph - home_run
Shea Langeliers (OAK) - 110.7mph - double
Joey Meneses (WSH) - 110.7mph - single
Josh Bell (SD) - 110.6mph - field_out
Starling Marte (NYM) - 110.4mph - double
Tommy Pham (BOS) - 110.4mph - double
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
J.D. Davis - 51 PA, 28 BIP, 9 Brls, 32.1 Brl%
Max Muncy - 66 PA, 40 BIP, 10 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 58 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 73 PA, 45 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 78 PA, 41 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.5 Brl%
Nick Pratto - 61 PA, 31 BIP, 6 Brls, 19.4 Brl%
Paul DeJong - 70 PA, 37 BIP, 7 Brls, 18.9 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 73 PA, 43 BIP, 8 Brls, 18.6 Brl%
Chas McCormick - 56 PA, 33 BIP, 6 Brls, 18.2 Brl%
Teoscar Hernandez - 71 PA, 45 BIP, 8 Brls, 17.8 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Juan Soto - 85 PA, 0.459 xwOBA
Paul Goldschmidt - 79 PA, 0.45 xwOBA
Rowdy Tellez - 64 PA, 0.43 xwOBA
Lars Nootbaar - 74 PA, 0.425 xwOBA
Max Muncy - 66 PA, 0.425 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 78 PA, 0.42 xwOBA
Jake Fraley - 60 PA, 0.416 xwOBA
J.D. Davis - 51 PA, 0.413 xwOBA
Nolan Arenado - 78 PA, 0.41 xwOBA
Sean Murphy - 75 PA, 0.402 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 74 PA, 129 Swings, 94.6 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 77 PA, 130 Swings, 91.5 Cont%
Nick Madrigal - 57 PA, 105 Swings, 91.4 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 73 PA, 129 Swings, 90.7 Cont%
Jose Iglesias - 72 PA, 137 Swings, 90.5 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 80 PA, 120 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 60 PA, 100 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Ildemaro Vargas - 58 PA, 87 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Isaac Paredes - 55 PA, 103 Swings, 88.3 Cont%
Myles Straw - 60 PA, 100 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Christian Walker - 84 PA, 16.7 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Jake Fraley - 60 PA, 15.0 K%, 14.6 Brl%
Jesse Winker - 61 PA, 18.0 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Juan Soto - 85 PA, 12.9 K%, 15.1 Brl%
Michael Massey - 62 PA, 19.4 K%, 17.4 Brl%
Paul Goldschmidt - 79 PA, 12.7 K%, 16.1 Brl%
Sean Murphy - 75 PA, 13.3 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 79 PA, 11.4 K%, 16.2 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Rhys Hoskins - +7.1% Contact%, +5.3 mph exit velo, -4.0 Chase%
Willy Adames - +7.1% Contact%, +5.9 mph exit velo, -4.4 Chase%
Corey Seager - +11.6% Contact%, +3.9 mph exit velo, -4.9 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Alex Bregman - 0.421 xwOBA, 12.8% Brl%, 84.2% Contact%, 17.1% Chase%, 8.3% K%
Christian Walker - 0.415 xwOBA, 15.9% Brl%, 77.6% Contact%, 23.1% Chase%, 15.9% K%
Emmanuel Rivera - 0.379 xwOBA, 18.2% Brl%, 76.5% Contact%, 22.4% Chase%, 21.6% K%
Jake Fraley - 0.419 xwOBA, 16.7% Brl%, 81.9% Contact%, 17.6% Chase%, 16.7% K%
Juan Soto - 0.43 xwOBA, 15.8% Brl%, 80.7% Contact%, 15.5% Chase%, 17.2% K%
Paul Goldschmidt - 0.409 xwOBA, 14.3% Brl%, 78.5% Contact%, 21.9% Chase%, 13.6% K%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 0.385 xwOBA, 13.5% Brl%, 80.9% Contact%, 17.1% Chase%, 21.1% K%
Vinnie Pasquantino - 0.461 xwOBA, 14.3% Brl%, 84.0% Contact%, 22.5% Chase%, 7.7% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Oneil Cruz - 46.2% Whiff%, 77.8% Weak%, 0.982 Cold Rating
Brandon Lowe - 36.0% Whiff%, 87.0% Weak%, 0.97 Cold Rating
Brandon Belt - 34.8% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.914 Cold Rating
Jonathan Schoop - 35.1% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.882 Cold Rating
Josh Bell - 31.0% Whiff%, 75.7% Weak%, 0.862 Cold Rating
J.D. Martinez - 38.4% Whiff%, 68.0% Weak%, 0.849 Cold Rating
Aaron Judge - 34.6% Whiff%, 69.2% Weak%, 0.845 Cold Rating
Trea Turner - 32.5% Whiff%, 70.0% Weak%, 0.832 Cold Rating
Rafael Devers - 29.8% Whiff%, 73.2% Weak%, 0.821 Cold Rating
Jeremy Pena - 40.4% Whiff%, 65.6% Weak%, 0.815 Cold Rating
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