MLB Daily Notes: Monday, June 27
Introduction / Explanations for New Readers
It is finished.
Okay, it’s not really. The rock wall is rockless and I didn’t even get the telescope screwed on yet, which is obviously the most important part of the whole thing. But boy did it feel good to build that for my kids this weekend. I felt like a man, and now I have the splinters, blisters, and tan lines to prove it!
The other question is, should I be putting pictures of my kids on the Internet? The answer is probably not, just given the fact that there’s no upside whatsoever - but I believe the downside to be so small so as to be non-existent, so I’m calling it neutral. If someone out there wants to come kidnap my kids, I’m not sure how a picture of them on the Internet will help them. And if someone is after me, they won’t have much trouble finding me, so I’m just going to continue to live loosely. But just be warned - my house is rigged with explosives so if you come near it you just might die!
♪♪ they done forgot about Rowdy but no doubt, he’s still around ♪♪
That’s a Luke Combs lyric that I think of every time Rowdy Tellez goes yabbo, so play that song while you listen to this next part for full effect.
Here’s a horribly ugly bar plot of showing Rowdy's dingers this year
I could’ve taken a few more minutes to find out how to make that x-axis look better with the dates, but look it’s 9:00 and I haven’t done any real work yet, so you’ll have to deal with it.
You can see there that Rowdy clustered together four homers in five days there from April 30 through May 4th, and recently he’s gone nearly a month without a homer. But his two yesterday gave him three for last week.
Here’s the rolling bar plot, again with x-axis problems, but the axis there starts at April 24th:
So he hadn’t been barreling the ball much from mid-May to late-June, but he remains in double-digits and the strikeout rate has stayed low all year long, which is why I wouldn’t have recommended anybody dropping him.
Maybe Rowdy isn’t the guy we thought in early May (a .250, 35+ HR hitter), but the strikeout rate and raw power keep him as someone I think you should be starting every week - and it was nice to see that big day yesterday.
The top pitcher performances of the day were two usual suspects - Shane McClanahan and Dylan Cease. No need to talk about those two stone-cold aces, so let’s talk briefly about David Peterson!
He had his first outing of the year with no walks! Although that wasn’t because he was just pounding the strike zone, he only had a 21% CSW% (15.4% of that was the swinging strike variety, giving him an incredibly low 6% called strike rate). Here’s how he went about it:
I suppose you don’t really want to throw sliders in the strike zone if you’re ahead in the count. He got himself into six 2-0 counts, which I don’t think is all that great - but he made it all work. Over his last two starts he has 35 whiffs , 15 strikeouts, and two walks. Both of those starts have come against the Marlins, however.
What we know is that his stuff is nasty. He has a 14.6% SwStr% over his last four outings with a 27.6% K%, and this last outing brought his walk rate below 10%, but it’s still at a high 9.6%. For the year his walk rate is 10%, which is somewhat manageable if you’re good at other things (namely strikeouts and ground-balls). He has a 54% GB% on the year, so that works. I think he’ll have some bad starts as any pitcher with a high walk rate does, but the K% and GB% should be enough to limit the damage and provide some awesome outings like this one yesterday on days where he has better command (or getting a lot of chases). He gets Texas next weekend so I think you can add him with relative confidence.
Patrick Wisdom is also back on the “hot hitter tracker”, which means that he’s chasing less and making more contact recently. That’s not all that hard for him to do since he’s been so awful at both of those things in his career, but hey - over his last 45 PA’s, he has a .282 batting average with a 29% K% (an improvement for him), and his usual strong hard-hit rate (50%) and barrel rate (12%).
What to do with that information? I dunno!
If you’re into baseball betting, you can check out my guy Dan Palyo’s new substack where he lists and tracks his bets!
Also, new podcast tonight. Send in your questions/comments if you have any!
Now we go to the notes!!!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Shane McClanahan (TB): 19.2 SwStr%, 39.4 CSW%
2. Dylan Cease (CWS): 20.8 SwStr%, 38.6 CSW%
3. Tyler Mahle (CIN): 12.4 SwStr%, 36.1 CSW%
4. Jose Suarez (LAA): 16.1 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
5. Rich Hill (BOS): 9.6 SwStr%, 32.5 CSW%
6. Yu Darvish (SD): 10.8 SwStr%, 32.4 CSW%
7. Jordan Lyles (BAL): 13.5 SwStr%, 30.6 CSW%
8. Spencer Strider (ATL): 16.8 SwStr%, 30.5 CSW%
9. Anthony DeSclafani (SF): 9.4 SwStr%, 30.2 CSW%
10. Jose Urquidy (HOU): 8.0 SwStr%, 29.0 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Dylan Cease - 7.0 IP - 93.5 JA Points
2. Shane McClanahan - 7.0 IP - 90.75 JA Points
3. Yu Darvish - 5.67 IP - 62.75 JA Points
4. David Peterson - 7.0 IP - 59.5 JA Points
5. Tyler Mahle - 6.67 IP - 58.75 JA Points
6. Jose Suarez - 6.0 IP - 56.75 JA Points
7. Spencer Strider - 6.0 IP - 49.75 JA Points
8. Dallas Keuchel - 4.33 IP - 45.5 JA Points
9. Nestor Cortes - 5.0 IP - 43.5 JA Points
10. Jordan Lyles - 7.0 IP - 39.5 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 15 GS - 55.71 JA Points
2. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 15 GS - 55.02 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 15 GS - 54.64 JA Points
4. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 6 GS - 51.09 JA Points
5. Freddy Peralta (MIL) - 8 GS - 49.99 JA Points
6. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 15 GS - 48.15 JA Points
7. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 12 GS - 47.24 JA Points
8. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 14 GS - 46.82 JA Points
9. Aaron Ashby (MIL) - 8 GS - 46.64 JA Points
10. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 8 GS - 46.36 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Dylan Cease's CU velo (15 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 82.6
Beau Brieske's CH velo (19 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 83.3
Kyle Gibson's SI velo (12 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 92.8
Spencer Strider's SL velo (25 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 86.7
James Kaprielian's SL velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 85.0
Daniel Castano's CH velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 82.9
Daniel Castano's SL velo (29 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 80.1
Tyler Mahle's FC velo (10 pitches) DOWN -3.1mph to 83.0
Tanner Tully's SL velo (19 pitches) DOWN -3.5mph to 80.0
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Alec Mills's FF usage (39.2%) up 21.2 points
Chi Chi Gonzalez's SI usage (52.5%) up 36.7 points
Dallas Keuchel's FC usage (33.7%) up 16.5 points
Glenn Otto's SI usage (46.7%) up 20.7 points
Jackson Tetreault's FC usage (37.4%) up 11.6 points
Jose Suarez's CH usage (39.1%) up 15.1 points
Jose Urquidy's SL usage (20.0%) up 11.4 points
Ryan Feltner's SI usage (30.0%) up 20.0 points
Yu Darvish's FC usage (51.0%) up 16.3 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Charlie Morton - 76 TBF, 39.2% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 97 TBF, 37.3% CSW%
Luis Garcia - 96 TBF, 36.4% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 97 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 99 TBF, 34.8% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 75 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 92 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 93 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Patrick Sandoval - 76 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Tyler Mahle - 110 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Dylan Cease - 92 TBF, 43.5% K%
Charlie Morton - 76 TBF, 42.1% K%
Corbin Burnes - 99 TBF, 35.4% K%
Spencer Strider - 85 TBF, 35.3% K%
Shane McClanahan - 97 TBF, 35.1% K%
Carlos Rodon - 93 TBF, 33.3% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 32.9% K%
Gerrit Cole - 92 TBF, 32.6% K%
Luis Garcia - 96 TBF, 32.3% K%
Cristian Javier - 90 TBF, 32.2% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Charlie Morton - 76 TBF, 40.8% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 92 TBF, 35.9% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 97 TBF, 32.0% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 85 TBF, 30.6% K-BB%
Luis Garcia - 96 TBF, 29.2% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 99 TBF, 27.3% K-BB%
Max Fried - 100 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Tyler Mahle - 110 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 93 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 75 TBF, 76.6% GB%
Andre Pallante - 79 TBF, 63.3% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 102 TBF, 62.8% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 121 TBF, 60.6% GB%
Mitch Keller - 92 TBF, 59.1% GB%
Joe Musgrove - 75 TBF, 58.5% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 96 TBF, 57.7% GB%
Alex Wood - 81 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Chris Bassitt - 97 TBF, 55.4% GB%
Justin Steele - 75 TBF, 55.2% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Carlos Rodon - 93 TBF, 33.3 K%, 7.5 BB%, 45.5% GB%
Charlie Morton - 76 TBF, 42.1 K%, 1.3 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Chris Bassitt - 97 TBF, 27.8 K%, 5.2 BB%, 55.4% GB%
Jose Suarez - 65 TBF, 27.7 K%, 7.7 BB%, 47.6% GB%
Max Fried - 100 TBF, 31.0 K%, 4.0 BB%, 50.8% GB%
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 32.9 K%, 6.6 BB%, 47.8% GB%
Taijuan Walker - 98 TBF, 28.6 K%, 6.1 BB%, 51.6% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 67 TBF, 28.4 K%, 4.5 BB%, 57.8% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Miles Mikolas - +3.4% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Zach Davies - +2.7% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Taijuan Walker - +2.7% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Shane McClanahan - +3.1% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Luis Garcia - +5.8% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Dylan Cease - +3.6% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Charlie Morton - +8.1% CSW%, -6.2 BB%
Patrick Sandoval - +2.2% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Kyle Hendricks - +3.1% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Trent Thornton - +5.1% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Johan Oviedo - +4.2% CSW%, -6.3 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Rowdy Tellez (MIL) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 3 Barrels, 2 HR
Brandon Nimmo (NYM) 4 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Will Smith (LAD) 6 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Rowdy Tellez - 5.0 PA - 73.0 JA Points
2. Alex Verdugo - 6.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
3. David Peralta - 5.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
4. Anthony Rizzo - 4.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
5. Juan Soto - 5.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
6. Ji-Man Choi - 4.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
7. Yandy Diaz - 5.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
8. Seth Brown - 4.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
9. Luis Rengifo - 4.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
10. Rafael Devers - 5.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 267.0 PA - 147.27 JA Points
2. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 231.0 PA - 135.58 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 306.0 PA - 131.9 JA Points
4. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 312.0 PA - 118.85 JA Points
5. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 284.0 PA - 117.04 JA Points
6. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 261.0 PA - 113.41 JA Points
7. Juan Soto (WSH) - 318.0 PA - 112.58 JA Points
8. Will Smith (LAD) - 244.0 PA - 110.98 JA Points
9. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 216.0 PA - 107.22 JA Points
10. Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 271.0 PA - 106.57 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Rowdy Tellez (MIL) - 112.6mph - field_out
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 112.6mph - single
Rafael Devers (BOS) - 112.4mph - single
Juan Yepez (STL) - 112.1mph - home_run
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 112.0mph - home_run
Max Kepler (MIN) - 111.9mph - single
Brendan Rodgers (COL) - 111.8mph - single
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) - 111.7mph - foul
Brandon Nimmo (NYM) - 111.2mph - double
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 111.0mph - home_run
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Mike Trout - 62 PA, 35 BIP, 10 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Joey Gallo - 52 PA, 22 BIP, 6 Brls, 27.3 Brl%
Christian Bethancourt - 49 PA, 35 BIP, 9 Brls, 25.7 Brl%
Jazz Chisholm - 70 PA, 36 BIP, 9 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Luke Voit - 87 PA, 48 BIP, 12 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 77 PA, 52 BIP, 12 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
Ryan Mountcastle - 78 PA, 53 BIP, 12 Brls, 22.6 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 74 PA, 41 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 82 PA, 56 BIP, 12 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 91 PA, 54 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.4 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 74 PA, 132 Swings, 91.7 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 79 PA, 137 Swings, 90.5 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 59 PA, 97 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 69 PA, 114 Swings, 89.5 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 57 PA, 119 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 62 PA, 92 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
Adam Frazier - 71 PA, 133 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
Matt Vierling - 47 PA, 69 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
Pavin Smith - 54 PA, 106 Swings, 87.7 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 71 PA, 126 Swings, 87.3 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Alejandro Kirk - 70 PA, 12.9 K%, 16.0 Brl%
Josh Bell - 77 PA, 16.9 K%, 17.0 Brl%
Paul Goldschmidt - 78 PA, 16.7 K%, 15.1 Brl%
Rafael Devers - 74 PA, 13.5 K%, 15.7 Brl%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 76 PA, 19.7 K%, 18.9 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 88 PA, 17.0 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Will Smith - 78 PA, 9.0 K%, 16.4 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 67 PA, 17.9 K%, 14.9 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Patrick Wisdom - +5.9% Contact%, +4.9 mph exit velo, -4.6 Chase%
Jose Abreu - +6.9% Contact%, +3.0 mph exit velo, -3.5 Chase%
Andrew Benintendi - +14.6% Contact%, +5.2 mph exit velo, -11.3 Chase%
Brendan Rodgers - +8.0% Contact%, +7.9 mph exit velo, -3.3 Chase%
Alex Verdugo - +3.9% Contact%, +4.7 mph exit velo, -8.1 Chase%
Rowdy Tellez - +10.2% Contact%, +3.3 mph exit velo, -18.6 Chase%
Ryan McMahon - +8.0% Contact%, +4.6 mph exit velo, -4.0 Chase%
Rafael Ortega - +9.4% Contact%, +5.5 mph exit velo, -13.3 Chase%
Rafael Devers - +10.4% Contact%, +8.4 mph exit velo, -13.1 Chase%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Max Stassi - 36.6% Whiff%, 80.0% Weak%, 0.977 Cold Rating
George Springer - 40.3% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.957 Cold Rating
Jake Burger - 35.5% Whiff%, 73.9% Weak%, 0.926 Cold Rating
Michael Chavis - 33.0% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.904 Cold Rating
Gary Sanchez - 32.8% Whiff%, 73.9% Weak%, 0.888 Cold Rating
Alek Thomas - 31.3% Whiff%, 75.8% Weak%, 0.877 Cold Rating
Evan Longoria - 34.4% Whiff%, 70.4% Weak%, 0.87 Cold Rating
Jackie Bradley Jr. - 32.8% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.86 Cold Rating
Randy Arozarena - 36.9% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.854 Cold Rating
Mark Canha - 29.9% Whiff%, 76.0% Weak%, 0.852 Cold Rating
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