MLB Daily Notes: Monday, May 30
It’s Memorial Day! I’ve been running scripts and writing baseball stuff for about 90 minutes now and I think my family is starting to get annoyed about it! They’ll just have to learn to understand that this is the life I’ve chosen, the life of a #StarvingArtist (I’m currently writing from a beach house, but hey us poor scribes have to vacation too).
The hitter of the day is Jorge Soler, who has been ON ONE since early May.
The strikeout rate has settled down to 27% and he’s just mashing the ball. He did this last year, really struggled early on but then suddenly cut down the strikeouts and was a huge fantasy asset in the second half. It might not be too late to buy in on Soler, and certainly, add him if you’re in a league where he’s available.
The pitcher of the day was Corbin Burnes, but we don’t really have much to say about him as the game’s best pitcher. The other standout, I think, was MacKenzie Gore who threw seven scoreless innings against the Pirates and struck out nine.
He has now racked up a 27% K%, an 8% BB%, and a phenomenal 140 PA/HR this year.
He has thrown a ton of four-seamers, as you can see there, but it’s working just fine for him and the pitch has only been hit over a fence one time. That’s a pretty incredible number there, and not something that can keep up, but the marks are really, really good on his slider too so there’s reason to believe he can continue his ace-like performance moving forward.
The Padres are getting Clevinger back at the end of this week, but I don’t see how they can possibly remove Gore from the rotation. They’ve shown the willingness to go to a six-man rotation (Nick Martinez is starting today, so they’ve continued the six-man even with Clevinger on the IL), so I think Gore is here to stay.
Alright I’m getting looks now, let’s finish this bitch up! Have a great holiday everybody!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Corbin Burnes (MIL): 16.2 SwStr%, 39.4 CSW%
2. MacKenzie Gore (SD): 16.1 SwStr%, 38.7 CSW%
3. Alex Cobb (SF): 11.5 SwStr%, 37.9 CSW%
4. Luis Severino (NYY): 21.4 SwStr%, 36.9 CSW%
5. Tyler Anderson (LAD): 12.7 SwStr%, 36.7 CSW%
6. Tyler Mahle (CIN): 18.3 SwStr%, 35.6 CSW%
7. Patrick Sandoval (LAA): 16.7 SwStr%, 34.7 CSW%
8. Shane McClanahan (TB): 18.5 SwStr%, 33.7 CSW%
9. Chris Bassitt (NYM): 12.0 SwStr%, 32.0 CSW%
10. Marcus Stroman (CHC): 13.3 SwStr%, 31.1 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Corbin Burnes - 7.33 IP - 95.25 JA Points
2. Tyler Mahle - 6.67 IP - 73.0 JA Points
3. MacKenzie Gore - 7.0 IP - 67.75 JA Points
4. Luis Garcia - 7.0 IP - 64.75 JA Points
5. Shane McClanahan - 6.0 IP - 63.75 JA Points
6. Luis Severino - 6.33 IP - 63.25 JA Points
7. Chris Bassitt - 6.0 IP - 53.75 JA Points
8. Tyler Anderson - 6.0 IP - 52.5 JA Points
9. Alex Cobb - 6.0 IP - 52.0 JA Points
10. Dylan Cease - 7.0 IP - 50.5 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 10.0 GS - 56.55 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 10.0 GS - 54.68 JA Points
3. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 8.0 GS - 51.27 JA Points
4. Kevin Gausman (TOR) - 9.0 GS - 50.41 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 10.0 GS - 50.23 JA Points
6. Freddy Peralta (MIL) - 8.0 GS - 49.99 JA Points
7. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 10.0 GS - 48.25 JA Points
8. Lucas Giolito (CWS) - 7.0 GS - 48.24 JA Points
9. Alex Cobb (SF) - 8.0 GS - 46.79 JA Points
10. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 8.0 GS - 46.36 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Dylan Cease's KC velo (15 pitches) UP 3.0mph to 82.5
Chris Bassitt's CU velo (11 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 73.6
Dylan Cease's SL velo (41 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 87.8
MacKenzie Gore's CU velo (23 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 82.0
Zack Greinke's SL velo (16 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 85.1
Zack Greinke's CU velo (16 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 73.0
Chris Bassitt's SI velo (27 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 93.9
Shane McClanahan's CU velo (23 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 83.1
Chris Bassitt's FF velo (15 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 94.2
Dylan Cease's FF velo (52 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 97.8
Patrick Sandoval's FF velo (21 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 94.4
Kyle Freeland's FF velo (37 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 88.9
Jose Berrios's FF velo (21 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 92.3
Kyle Freeland's CU velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 78.6
Corbin Burnes's SL velo (11 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 86.1
Kyle Freeland's SI velo (33 pitches) DOWN -2.8mph to 87.4
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Bruce Zimmermann's FF usage (42.7%) up 10.1 points
Elvin Rodriguez's FF usage (66.0%) up 14.7 points
James Kaprielian's FF usage (81.2%) up 33.2 points
Kyle Freeland's FF usage (34.6%) up 13.7 points
Kyle Freeland's SI usage (30.8%) up 14.4 points
Luis Garcia's FC usage (35.4%) up 16.4 points
Marco Gonzales's CH usage (51.0%) up 19.5 points
Marcus Stroman's FF usage (25.6%) up 12.8 points
Patrick Sandoval's SL usage (44.4%) up 20.3 points
Roansy Contreras's SL usage (35.5%) up 13.0 points
Tyler Anderson's FC usage (36.7%) up 11.6 points
Zack Wheeler's SL usage (42.6%) up 12.0 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Gerrit Cole - 109 TBF, 35.9% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 95 TBF, 35.4% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 106 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 86 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Nathan Eovaldi - 98 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 99 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Tony Gonsolin - 84 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
MacKenzie Gore - 81 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Robbie Ray - 98 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Zack Wheeler - 99 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Robbie Ray - 98 TBF, 37.8% K%
Shane McClanahan - 95 TBF, 35.8% K%
Frankie Montas - 84 TBF, 34.5% K%
Zack Wheeler - 99 TBF, 33.3% K%
Dylan Cease - 90 TBF, 32.2% K%
Gerrit Cole - 109 TBF, 32.1% K%
Aaron Nola - 106 TBF, 31.1% K%
Tony Gonsolin - 84 TBF, 31.0% K%
MacKenzie Gore - 81 TBF, 30.9% K%
Sonny Gray - 91 TBF, 29.7% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane McClanahan - 95 TBF, 32.6% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 99 TBF, 30.3% K-BB%
Robbie Ray - 98 TBF, 29.6% K-BB%
Frankie Montas - 84 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 109 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 106 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 99 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
MacKenzie Gore - 81 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 91 TBF, 24.2% K-BB%
Nestor Cortes - 105 TBF, 23.8% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Alex Cobb - 95 TBF, 59.4% GB%
Martin Perez - 109 TBF, 58.8% GB%
Framber Valdez - 88 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 117 TBF, 57.9% GB%
Joan Adon - 91 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Alex Wood - 85 TBF, 55.0% GB%
Adrian Houser - 91 TBF, 54.4% GB%
Luis Castillo - 84 TBF, 54.1% GB%
Frankie Montas - 84 TBF, 54.0% GB%
Paul Blackburn - 92 TBF, 52.9% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Brady Singer - 73 TBF, 27.4 K%, 4.1 BB%, 52.0% GB%
Frankie Montas - 84 TBF, 34.5 K%, 6.0 BB%, 54.0% GB%
Freddy Peralta - 64 TBF, 31.2 K%, 4.7 BB%, 46.2% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 109 TBF, 32.1 K%, 3.7 BB%, 45.7% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 117 TBF, 27.4 K%, 5.1 BB%, 57.9% GB%
Sonny Gray - 91 TBF, 29.7 K%, 5.5 BB%, 47.5% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 92 TBF, 28.3 K%, 6.5 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 99 TBF, 33.3 K%, 3.0 BB%, 48.4% GB%
Multiple Barrels
Harold Castro (DET) 3 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jorge Soler (MIA) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) 5 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Taylor Ward (LAA) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Shohei Ohtani - 5.0 PA - 65.0 JA Points
2. Jorge Soler - 4.0 PA - 61.0 JA Points
3. Juan Soto - 4.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
4. Taylor Ward - 5.0 PA - 55.0 JA Points
5. Alejandro Kirk - 5.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
6. Nick Gordon - 3.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
7. Lorenzo Cain - 4.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
8. Max Stassi - 5.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
9. Will Smith - 4.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
10. Harold Castro - 3.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 142.0 PA - 157.18 JA Points
2. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 188.0 PA - 143.62 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 197.0 PA - 128.32 JA Points
4. Juan Soto (WSH) - 214.0 PA - 125.23 JA Points
5. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 207.0 PA - 121.74 JA Points
6. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 173.0 PA - 118.84 JA Points
7. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 198.0 PA - 111.52 JA Points
8. Mike Trout (LAA) - 183.0 PA - 107.54 JA Points
9. Joc Pederson (SF) - 129.0 PA - 105.74 JA Points
10. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 157.0 PA - 105.73 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Jorge Soler (MIA) - 113.8mph - home_run
William Contreras (ATL) - 112.8mph - single
Nick Plummer (NYM) - 112.8mph - home_run
Patrick Wisdom (CHC) - 112.1mph - single
Oscar Gonzalez (CLE) - 111.9mph - single
Oscar Gonzalez (CLE) - 111.7mph - nan
Starling Marte (NYM) - 111.2mph - single
Rafael Devers (BOS) - 110.7mph - home_run
Ramon Laureano (OAK) - 110.2mph - single
Emmanuel Rivera (KC) - 110.1mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Shohei Ohtani - 79 PA, 51 BIP, 13 Brls, 25.5 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 58 PA, 37 BIP, 9 Brls, 24.3 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 87 PA, 58 BIP, 14 Brls, 24.1 Brl%
Evan Longoria - 52 PA, 34 BIP, 8 Brls, 23.5 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 55 PA, 36 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Trevor Story - 82 PA, 50 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Jorge Soler - 62 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Jack Suwinski - 63 PA, 35 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Mike Trout - 77 PA, 48 BIP, 9 Brls, 18.8 Brl%
Willson Contreras - 64 PA, 38 BIP, 7 Brls, 18.4 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 76 PA, 109 Swings, 92.7 Cont%
Michael Brantley - 72 PA, 88 Swings, 92.0 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 51 PA, 80 Swings, 91.2 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 66 PA, 128 Swings, 90.6 Cont%
Myles Straw - 67 PA, 106 Swings, 89.6 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 80 PA, 153 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Alejandro Kirk - 51 PA, 79 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 74 PA, 162 Swings, 88.3 Cont%
Adam Frazier - 82 PA, 144 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
D.J. LeMahieu - 70 PA, 112 Swings, 87.5 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Bryce Harper - 67 PA, 11.9 K%, 14.5 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 55 PA, 16.4 K%, 22.2 Brl%
Nelson Cruz - 73 PA, 19.2 K%, 15.4 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 80 PA, 18.8 K%, 17.5 Brl%
Now to the paid stuff. For $5/month or $40/year you get access to a bunch of extra goodies, including, but not limited to
Daily Projections (with DraftKings salaries & scores) Excel & a Tableau Dashboard)
Strikeout Prop Model Comparisons. Compares my K projection with FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook betting lines
My personal DraftKings player pools and cash lineups (not every day but when I have time!)
Daily hitter matchup ratings
Plate Discipline leaderboard
More Magic Formula Qualifiers
Pitch Mix and Velo Changes Tracker
Full daily and season-long pitcher and hitter data reports
Full access to my daily-updated algorithmic hitter and pitcher rankings
Offseason reviews & previews of every single fantasy-relevant player
More stuff added throughout the year as ideas come to me
If you’re seeing this, you’ve become a paid sub! Thanks so much for that! If you still don’t have access to any of the below links, please DM me on Twitter or email me and I’ll get you added ASAP.
Premium Features - SAMPLES
Here are some samples of what you get with the paid subscription, for anybody on the fence!
Today’s K Prop Comparison Sheet
JA Algorithm - Season Hitter Ranks
DraftKings Hitter Scoring Analysis
You get all of that updated daily (projections updated throughout the day as lineups come out) for just $5/month or $40/year - along with a ton more stuff.