MLB Daily Notes: Monday, October 3
Only three days remain in the MLB regular season. It has been such a fun one for me. I had to have led the entire world in fantasy baseball content produced, although that Nick Pollack fellow probably gave me a run for my money.
I suppose the only games to care about this week would be Phillies and Brewers games? Pretty lame end to the season, can’t say I’m super keen on the whole six playoff teams thing either, but we’ll see how it goes. I will be running projections throughout the playoffs, although it’s going to be a huge challenge to project pitchers since pitch counts are so unpredictable with guys getting yanked at the first sign of trouble.
My home league championship goes the whole way through Wednesday, but it looks like Big Poppa Pish is going to take it down over Stupid Ass Clint. Pish had a pitching week for the ages, giving up just SEVEN earned runs over his team’s 60 innings pitched. He has a 1.05 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP. I suppose I should be happy since he’s giving Clint the revenge he deserves for beating me, but Pish Sticks has been a little shady in recent months in all honesty, I’m not sure what he’s up to but I doubt it’s good! Get it together bud!
One of my favorite parts of the offseason is when everybody upgrades pitchers and hitters that finished the year really strong. It’s so funny. Every player will have a “best month”, and their draft stock the next year is affected by which month it happened to be. If you had a sick May and a horrible September, people are downgrading you, if you had an awful April-July but then had two good months in August and September people love you.
The reason for that is pretty obvious and not entirely stupid, that maybe the hitter just figured something out late in the year and now they’re a brand new player. It’s true that the most recent data should be weighed more heavily than the less recent data, but we as humans go way, wayyyy too far with that. The recent weighting should be just a smiiiidge different than the not recent.
So today, let’s look at some notable hitters and pitchers absolutely smashing or ass-ing in September.
Pitchers Smashing
Cristian Javier: 28.1 IP, 0.32 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, 37% K%, 8% BB%
Alek Manoah: 40.3 IP, 0.89 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 21.3% K%, 7.7% BB%
Jose Quintana: 29.4 IP, 0.92 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 25.2% K%, 2.7% BB%
Shohei Ohtani: 33 IP, 1.09 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 29.6% K%, 8.0 BB%
Nestor Cortes: 27.1 IP, 1.33 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 29.7% K%, 7.9% BB%
Jeffrey Springs: 30.4 IP, 1.48 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 24% K%, 5.4% BB%
Pitchers Assing
Josiah Gray: 25.1 IP, 6.81 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 12.1% K%, 11.2% BB%
Mike Clevinger: 28.3 IP, 6.68 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 14.2% K%, 6.3% BB%
Charlie Morton: 29.8 IP, 5.74 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 26.4% K%, 9.3% BB%
Jose Berrios: 25.2 IP, 5.71 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, 13.8% K%, 6.5% BB%
Kyle Wright: 25.2 IP, 5.36 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 21.4% K%, 8.9% BB%
Reid Detmers: 25.1 IP, 5.02 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 20.0% K%, 6.1% BB%
Hitters Smashing
Joey Meneses: 130 PA, .322/.369/.568
Marcus Semien: 131 PA, .306/.351/.554
Nathaniel Lowe: 124 PA, .306/.379/.486
Adley Rutschman: 127 PA, .273/.370/.491
Steven Kwan: 139 PA, .323/.391/.452
Oscar Gonzalez: 132 PA, .305/.343/.492
Bryan Reynolds: 127 PA, .277/.362/.464
Ryan Mountcastle: 120 PA, .269/.358/.442
Hitters Assing
Vlad Guerrero: 139 PA, .225/.273/.364
Matt Chapman: 127 PA, .194/.331/.330
Amed Rosario: 131 PA, .268/.282/.402
Jose Ramirez: 136 PA, .230/.338/.354
Trea Turner: 124 PA, .259/.306/.397
Mookie Betts: 121 PA, .229/.298/.431
Austin Riley: 121 PA, .221/.322/.423
If you’re one of these “hot is real” guys, it’s time for you to put your money where your freaking mouth is and short the Dodgers this postseason. Betts and Turner have been cold for weeks, so what’s up truthers - they’re cold - this team is likely to get knocked out in the first round. Send me your freaking bet receipts, do it! The way to do this, by the way, would be to put money on the 3-4 teams right behind them in the World Series odds, since the Dodgers take odds away from those teams the most.
Elvis Andrus needs mentioning here cause it’s one of the most ridiculous things to happen all year. The freaking guy is hitting .278/.315/.467 with eight homers and 10 steals in 178 PAs with the White Sox. He’s a completely different player. Now I don’t think anybody will be fooled into drafting him at any significant cost next year, but he’s a great example of this “intangible” stuff - or whatever you want to call it. With Oakland this year he hit .239/.303/.376 with 8 HR and 7 SB in 383 PAs. There are two possible explanations for such a disparity
The team change actually made a big difference because he was just very disinterested in playing baseball on a dead team as a veteran player with no significant new contract to play for. The change of scenery REINVIGORATED HIS LOVE OF THE GAME and he started TRYING REALLY HARD and performed better.
Random ass luck. He just happened to have a bunch of his best games of the year after the trade rather than before it and there’s really no explanation for it.
If I said I believe it’s just the second bullet point I think I might get swatted in my basement here. That would make some people very, very angry. Now, of course, the angry parties don’t have my credential as a Master of Science™ so they can just be completely disregarded.
But the truth is that it’s lonely at the top. The rest of the Masters of Science™ don’t play fantasy baseball, I need you peons. I rely on you. I love you. Please continue to follow me on the Internet.
This seems like a perfect place to stop typing.
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 18.9 SwStr%, 37.7 CSW%
2. Marcus Stroman (CHC): 9.9 SwStr%, 37.0 CSW%
3. Tyler Anderson (LAD): 24.4 SwStr%, 36.0 CSW%
4. German Marquez (COL): 16.3 SwStr%, 32.6 CSW%
5. Luis Garcia (HOU): 17.9 SwStr%, 32.1 CSW%
6. Shane Bieber (CLE): 10.0 SwStr%, 31.2 CSW%
7. Adam Wainwright (STL): 8.1 SwStr%, 30.2 CSW%
8. Lance Lynn (CWS): 10.8 SwStr%, 30.1 CSW%
9. Andre Jackson (LAD): 12.3 SwStr%, 29.8 CSW%
10. James Kaprielian (OAK): 11.0 SwStr%, 29.7 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Tyler Anderson - 5.0 IP - 81.5 JA Points
2. Pablo Lopez - 6.67 IP - 57.0 JA Points
3. Luis Garcia - 7.0 IP - 56.75 JA Points
4. German Marquez - 6.0 IP - 50.0 JA Points
5. Daniel Bard - 2.0 IP - 48.0 JA Points
6. Marcus Stroman - 6.0 IP - 47.5 JA Points
7. Blake Snell - 6.0 IP - 46.75 JA Points
8. Freddy Peralta - 4.0 IP - 44.5 JA Points
9. Lance Lynn - 7.0 IP - 44.25 JA Points
10. Zack Wheeler - 5.0 IP - 42.25 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 20.0 GS - 57.89 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 31.0 GS - 50.99 JA Points
3. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 31.0 GS - 50.54 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 27.0 GS - 49.87 JA Points
5. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 31.0 GS - 47.89 JA Points
6. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 28.0 GS - 47.89 JA Points
7. Blake Snell (SD) - 24.0 GS - 47.48 JA Points
8. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 23.0 GS - 47.02 JA Points
9. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 26.0 GS - 46.81 JA Points
10. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 24.0 GS - 45.89 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Joey Wentz's CU velo (17 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 77.3
Charlie Morton's CU velo (40 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 82.9
Pablo Lopez's FF velo (43 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 95.1
Max Castillo's FF velo (52 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 91.7
Luis Garcia's FF velo (34 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 92.5
Roansy Contreras's FF velo (20 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 94.1
Adam Wainwright's SI velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 86.9
James Kaprielian's SL velo (24 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 83.4
Kyle Bradish's FF velo (26 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 93.0
Luis Garcia's FC velo (21 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 83.4
Roansy Contreras's SL velo (19 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 81.9
Patrick Corbin's SL velo (23 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 79.4
Luis Garcia's SL velo (22 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 79.1
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Charlie Morton's CU usage (50.6%) up 13.0 points
Chi Chi Gonzalez's CU usage (13.7%) up 13.0 points
Chris Bassitt's SI usage (48.6%) up 13.7 points
Corey Kluber's CU usage (42.3%) up 15.6 points
James Kaprielian's SI usage (26.4%) up 21.8 points
Kyle Bradish's SI usage (20.2%) up 17.1 points
Max Castillo's SL usage (26.3%) up 11.5 points
Patrick Corbin's SI usage (64.4%) up 21.5 points
Tucker Davidson's SL usage (53.2%) up 10.7 points
Tyler Anderson's FF usage (52.3%) up 14.3 points
Tyson Miller's CU usage (19.3%) up 10.7 points
Zack Wheeler's SI usage (33.8%) up 16.7 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 79 TBF, 37.9% CSW%
Triston McKenzie - 80 TBF, 37.9% CSW%
Jacob deGrom - 87 TBF, 36.4% CSW%
Brandon Woodruff - 77 TBF, 35.9% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 92 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Clayton Kershaw - 98 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Cristian Javier - 77 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Jeffrey Springs - 93 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Nick Lodolo - 93 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Luis Garcia - 92 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jacob deGrom - 87 TBF, 44.8% K%
Brandon Woodruff - 77 TBF, 40.3% K%
Cristian Javier - 77 TBF, 37.7% K%
Blake Snell - 91 TBF, 35.2% K%
Triston McKenzie - 80 TBF, 33.8% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 74 TBF, 33.8% K%
Gerrit Cole - 92 TBF, 32.6% K%
Nestor Cortes - 87 TBF, 32.2% K%
Nick Lodolo - 93 TBF, 31.2% K%
Zac Gallen - 75 TBF, 30.7% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jacob deGrom - 87 TBF, 40.2% K-BB%
Brandon Woodruff - 77 TBF, 35.1% K-BB%
Triston McKenzie - 80 TBF, 32.5% K-BB%
Cristian Javier - 77 TBF, 29.9% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 91 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 97 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%
Zac Gallen - 75 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 91 TBF, 24.2% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 79 TBF, 24.1% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 92 TBF, 23.9% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Alex Cobb - 72 TBF, 70.4% GB%
Shohei Ohtani - 74 TBF, 70.0% GB%
Framber Valdez - 112 TBF, 66.3% GB%
Kyle Wright - 91 TBF, 62.5% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 104 TBF, 62.2% GB%
Eduardo Rodriguez - 105 TBF, 59.3% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 102 TBF, 58.8% GB%
Drey Jameson - 98 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 93 TBF, 56.0% GB%
Shane Bieber - 103 TBF, 54.9% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 79 TBF, 30.4 K%, 6.3 BB%, 53.1% GB%
Brandon Woodruff - 77 TBF, 40.3 K%, 5.2 BB%, 48.8% GB%
Jose Quintana - 70 TBF, 27.1 K%, 2.9 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Luis Castillo - 92 TBF, 28.3 K%, 7.6 BB%, 46.6% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 52 TBF, 28.8 K%, 1.9 BB%, 63.9% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Sandy Alcantara - +2.5% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Kyle Gibson - +3.6% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Johan Oviedo - +2.1% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Jordan Lyles - +3.7% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Triston McKenzie - +9.2% CSW%, -7.1 BB%
Cristian Javier - +4.7% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Zac Gallen - +2.3% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Mitch Keller - +3.1% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Jose Quintana - +3.0% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Jesus Luzardo - +3.4% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Edward Cabrera - +2.7% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Reid Detmers - +2.1% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Logan Webb - +2.8% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Johnny Cueto - +3.9% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Alec Burleson (STL) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Austin Slater (SF) 2 PA, 2 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Dansby Swanson (ATL) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Nelson Velazquez (CHC) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Teoscar Hernandez (TOR) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Will Brennan (CLE) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Dansby Swanson - 4.0 PA - 60.0 JA Points
2. Nelson Velazquez - 4.0 PA - 60.0 JA Points
3. Shea Langeliers - 5.0 PA - 55.0 JA Points
4. Teoscar Hernandez - 4.0 PA - 55.0 JA Points
5. Jeff McNeil - 5.0 PA - 54.0 JA Points
6. Ji-Man Choi - 4.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
7. Mike Trout - 5.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
8. Matt Olson - 4.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
9. Austin Slater - 2.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
10. Will Brennan - 5.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 662.0 PA - 151.54 JA Points
2. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 537.0 PA - 144.43 JA Points
3. Juan Soto (SD) - 648.0 PA - 130.99 JA Points
4. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 676.0 PA - 118.82 JA Points
5. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 529.0 PA - 104.57 JA Points
6. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 644.0 PA - 102.55 JA Points
7. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 553.0 PA - 102.21 JA Points
8. Alex Bregman (HOU) - 640.0 PA - 100.88 JA Points
9. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 589.0 PA - 88.62 JA Points
10. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 550.0 PA - 86.84 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 117.0mph - foul
Teoscar Hernandez (TOR) - 112.7mph - home_run
Ryan Jeffers (MIN) - 111.9mph - foul
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 111.9mph - foul
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 111.3mph - field_out
Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 111.3mph - foul
Teoscar Hernandez (TOR) - 110.4mph - home_run
Paul DeJong (STL) - 110.3mph - double
Victor Reyes (DET) - 110.0mph - home_run
Francisco Lindor (NYM) - 109.7mph - foul
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 75 PA, 35 BIP, 14 Brls, 40.0 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 66 PA, 47 BIP, 13 Brls, 27.7 Brl%
Christopher Morel - 48 PA, 22 BIP, 6 Brls, 27.3 Brl%
Teoscar Hernandez - 77 PA, 57 BIP, 14 Brls, 24.6 Brl%
Seth Brown - 67 PA, 33 BIP, 8 Brls, 24.2 Brl%
Gleyber Torres - 67 PA, 46 BIP, 9 Brls, 19.6 Brl%
Adolis Garcia - 73 PA, 46 BIP, 9 Brls, 19.6 Brl%
Ryan Mountcastle - 75 PA, 41 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.5 Brl%
Mike Trout - 72 PA, 48 BIP, 9 Brls, 18.8 Brl%
Oneil Cruz - 78 PA, 43 BIP, 8 Brls, 18.6 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 75 PA, 0.543 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 66 PA, 0.48 xwOBA
J.D. Davis - 46 PA, 0.467 xwOBA
Taylor Ward - 76 PA, 0.456 xwOBA
Bryan De La Cruz - 73 PA, 0.452 xwOBA
Teoscar Hernandez - 77 PA, 0.435 xwOBA
Gleyber Torres - 67 PA, 0.421 xwOBA
George Springer - 88 PA, 0.41 xwOBA
MJ Melendez - 79 PA, 0.406 xwOBA
Ryan Mountcastle - 75 PA, 0.405 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 62 PA, 105 Swings, 98.1 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 90 PA, 163 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Jose Altuve - 71 PA, 110 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 53 PA, 80 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 61 PA, 109 Swings, 89.9 Cont%
Yuli Gurriel - 65 PA, 126 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 76 PA, 126 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Ildemaro Vargas - 63 PA, 116 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
Alejandro Kirk - 59 PA, 89 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
Wander Franco - 80 PA, 138 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Albert Pujols - 59 PA, 18.6 K%, 17.5 Brl%
Anthony Santander - 75 PA, 20.0 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 77 PA, 14.3 K%, 16.1 Brl%
Taylor Ward - 76 PA, 19.7 K%, 18.5 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 66 PA, 16.7 K%, 27.7 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Kyle Schwarber - +10.7% Contact%, +4.2 mph exit velo, -4.2 Chase%
Bryan De La Cruz - +6.2% Contact%, +4.6 mph exit velo, -4.1 Chase%
Taylor Ward - +9.6% Contact%, +4.4 mph exit velo, -3.5 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Juan Soto - 0.404 xwOBA, 15.4% Brl%, 82.8% Contact%, 15.5% Chase%, 17.2% K%
Taylor Ward - 0.474 xwOBA, 20.5% Brl%, 79.8% Contact%, 17.8% Chase%, 15.8% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Jose Siri - 35.5% Whiff%, 90.5% Weak%, 0.957 Cold Rating
Tommy Edman - 33.9% Whiff%, 81.8% Weak%, 0.932 Cold Rating
Shea Langeliers - 35.9% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.893 Cold Rating
Corbin Carroll - 31.5% Whiff%, 77.8% Weak%, 0.884 Cold Rating
Christian Yelich - 31.1% Whiff%, 80.6% Weak%, 0.883 Cold Rating
Jake McCarthy - 33.7% Whiff%, 72.4% Weak%, 0.876 Cold Rating
Jorge Mateo - 30.0% Whiff%, 81.2% Weak%, 0.873 Cold Rating
JJ Bleday - 29.3% Whiff%, 88.9% Weak%, 0.873 Cold Rating
Dermis Garcia - 39.6% Whiff%, 68.2% Weak%, 0.86 Cold Rating
David Villar - 36.0% Whiff%, 69.2% Weak%, 0.859 Cold Rating
Now to the paid stuff. For $7/month or $70/year you get access to a bunch of extra goodies, including, but not limited to
NFL Dashboards, Notes, Reports, Write-Ups, and Projections!!
Minor League Stat Dashboards
Daily Projections (with DraftKings salaries & scores) Excel & a Tableau Dashboard)
Strikeout Prop Model Comparisons. Compares my K projection with FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook betting lines
My personal DraftKings player pools and cash lineups (not every day but when I have time!)
Daily hitter matchup ratings
Plate Discipline leaderboard
More Magic Formula Qualifiers
Pitch Mix and Velo Changes Tracker
Full daily and season-long pitcher and hitter data reports
Full access to my daily-updated algorithmic hitter and pitcher rankings
Offseason reviews & previews of every single fantasy-relevant player
More stuff added throughout the year as ideas come to me
Premium Features - SAMPLES
Here are some samples of what you get with the paid subscription, for anybody on the fence!
SAMPLE K Prop Comparison Sheet
SAMPLE JA Algorithm - Season Hitter Ranks
SAMPLE DraftKings Hitter Scoring Analysis
You get all of that updated daily (projections updated throughout the day as lineups come out) for just $7/month or $70/year - along with a ton more stuff.