Check out yesterday’s box scores here
Why not bring it back for a day? I’m one week into being an unemployed loser, and I don’t do drugs or drink alcohol before 5pm, so what else does your boy have to do?
I guess I won’t bother with my personal lamentations; nobody cares. I am confident that things will work out; it’s just uneasy in the period waiting for something to hit. But this is the period I should be enjoying the most, right? I don’t have any meetings or dumb HR trainings or people frantically messaging me at 4pm while I’m trying to wrap things up. I’m free from all of that, but the mind hasn’t let me enjoy it so far.
The new site is coming along well. I think I’ll move everything over there in November. Here’s a peek:
The best part for you guys will be the tools integration right into the site:
I set that all up with some Google APIs and Cloudflare yesterday. So I’ve gotten to learn a good bit about web development this week.
I’ve even messed around with creating some quick websites to do other stuff with. I feel like there’s a market for helping small businesses with websites, data stuff, and reporting to help them out. There are a bunch of businesses run by a small number of people with limited spending ability on stuff, and without anybody who really knows the technical world. It’s amazing what you can build in one afternoon these days if you know what you’re doing and can work well with the AI tools out there. So hey, if your business needs any technical help - reach out.
There’s really no excuse for me not to have a very strong website for MLB Data Warehouse ahead of next year. So that’s happening, and hopefully it helps the business and makes the user experience much better.
The new solution has a newsletter, too. The daily notes and slate previews and all of that will still come to your inboxes if you would like.
We have a four-game slate today, which I was hoping for. Shoutout once again to boxscore.email:
The Padres survived the Brewers last night. I thought it was interested that they went to Michael King for two innings instead of using Morejon/Miller. They had the offday on Monday, so even with Miller throwing a ton of pitches on Sunday - you would’ve thought he was available. But they like Michael King, and he’s been awesome so far for them this postseason. And now they have all of the pieces of that elite bullpen available tonight.
11 hits for the Brewers, but just three runs scratched across. You could consider that a fortunate win for the Padres. Jackson Chourio went 0/4 but laced a ball in the first inning that could’ve set the table, but was robbed by an awesome catch from Jackson Merrill.
Chourio had an awesome season, and finished extremely well.
→ .291/.351/.487, 25 HR, 23 SB
That was after a late start to the year. He played just 127 games. He’s one of the few guys you could see going 30-30-.300 next year. The consistency was awesome from the 22-year-old as well:
A medium-ish start to the year in May, and a rough July with a .588 OPS. But a .900+ OPS in every other month. He’s knocked in five runs in three postseason games, and at least one in every game. The 0/4 last night sent him down to a .167 average in October. But I’d expect some more noise from him. The Brewers and Dodgers are both up 2-1 with one more road game. So they’ll at minimum get a chance to punch their ticket to the NLCS at home. And that would set up the best series of the postseason. Those are clearly the two best teams, but the showdown will be in a league series rather than the World Series.
I wonder if they’ll ever scrap the NL/AL thing. Probably not. It’s an antiquated idea. That distinction was made in the 1901 when the American League was established. So we’re 125 years in the making here. With all of the money and the ease of travel, the regular interleague play, and the DH thing going away a handful of years ago, the distinction is just kinda weird now. But tradition is cool. I’m not complaining about it.
The different leagues didn’t play each other at all (short of the World Series) until 1997. So even I, at 35, grew up in a world where your hometown team wouldn’t see the other league at all most years. And then for a while you’d get one or two series against that other league a year. And now you play everybody and play your divisional foes even less.
William Contreras is smashing this October. Another dinger last night. He hit 17 last year and 18 (regular season) this year, so you don’t expect to get a ton of longballs from him. But the Brewers offense will need someone to step up and hit a few dingers if they’re going to finish off their great season in the way they want to. They won 103 games, which is an absolute ton. They did that while being 28th in baseball in homers. So they don’t need the homers, but they certainly go a long way in these postseason games where scoring is lower.
The Dodgers put a tough loss on the Braves. Atlanta sent Chris Sale to the bump, and it didn’t go how they wanted. Enrique Hernandez and Freddie Freeman got him out of the ballyard at the end of his outing. The Braves bullpen did their job, but they couldn’t get to the four runs they needed to beat Yamamoto and company.
A Braves win there would’ve been super nice. It seems like a longshot now. Using Sale tonight is on the table, little doubt about that. And an if necessary game five would see as many innings from Sale as possible if he doesn’t go tonight.
The Braves faced down Skubal, Snell, and Yamamoto and survived it. Their reward is Tyler Glasnow tonight. LA is brutal!
I’ve said it before - all you need to win a World Series is an elite rotation, an elite bullpen, and an elite lineup (and a little luck). It’s that simple!
Here’s what we’ve got tonight:
I’m not pumped about the 10pm eastern game. But it should be hella fun. The White Sox finally get a home game after going 4-0 in the postseason so far. It’s a double bullpen game there. Messick is in play tonight, for sure. He’s not one of these Sale/Skubal/Yamamoto/etc types that easily turns into an elite reliever. Messick is built to be an old-school starter. I’m not saying he’ll be worse in a 2-3 inning situation, but he can’t come out and pump 98-100 like other starters can in those spots.
It’s a shame how Tanner Bibee’s career has gone. He’s fine; definitely a big-leaguer. But a few years ago, we envisioned Bibee as a guy who would easily be taking the ball in a big playoff game as a starter.
We should like the Yankees’ chances with Fried on the hill back in New York. But winning three in a row against the Rays is tough. Tampa lost three in a row just five times all year. They’ll get Rasmussen back in there for game four. I don’t see a point in them using him tonight up 2-0. But the postseason is crazy, bro!
Nick Martinez gets it tonight. 180 innings and a 3.10 ERA from that guy this year. I was wondering the other day if the Rays targeted him specifically in free agency ahead of time. Did they know they could make this work? Or did they just need a starter and ended up with him as the most cost-effective option and then go from there?
Pretty magnificent stuff from the Rays. He got the strand rate under control this year (82% after going 61% last year), and the changeup made that dude at least a few million dollars for his next contract.
We’ll dive more into these matchups in the slate preview I’ll write for the four-gamer.
Picks
Guardians beat White Sox 5-4
Dodgers beat Braves 6-1
Yankees beat Rays 4-2
Brewers beat Padres 5-3
That’s all feels, man. No projections or sims involved. If you want to know what the sims say:
That puts the Dodgers as a big favorite, the Yankees as a significant favorite, and then the Brewers and White Sox with small edges.
Projections rely a lot on the starting pitcher. They aren’t going to work as well when bullpen chaos ensues, as it will tonight. The models aren’t going to like project out possible pitcher vs. hitter matchups from those bullpens, it just takes the overall stats of the available pitchers in the bullpen and uses that, weighed against how many innings it thinks the starter will go.
Should be fun! Let’s enjoy it.