Check out yesterday’s box scores here
The regular season is over, and the playoffs are set. Here’s what we’ve got:
Here are your World Series odds via Kalshi:
Dodgers 30.5%
Brewers 16.7%
Rays 11%
Yankees 10.5%
Padres 6.6%
Guardians 6.3%
Braves 5.7%
Red Sox 4.1%
Phillies 4%
Cubs 3.8%
Astros 3.6%
White Sox 2.4%
A pretty top-heavy board. The Dodgers have nearly double the odds of the second-most-likely champion. The Dodgers and Brewers absorb almost half of the odds. Wouldn’t that immediately put some value on the American League? You could probably work up a formula to buy shares of every AL team with the plan to sell whichever team makes the World Series when they make it, and as long as the World Series ends up being within a 60/40 chance, you’d lock in a profit. That sounds like more of a headache than I’m willing to go into, but it struck me as a potential hedge opportunity for you hardcore baseball traders.
The Dodgers taking an early out would help that strategy as they would be the biggest favorite if reaching the World Series.
And isn’t that what we’re all rooting for this postseason? Unless you’re a fan of one of these teams, you’re probably just anti-Dodgers at this point. Few people want to see a third straight World Series going to the Dodgers with all of the players they’ve bought and some of the shady financial tactics they used to do it.
I can’t make myself hate the Dodgers too much, personally. Firstly, this is sports, and it’s meaningless. Secondly, it’s not the fault of the players, right? I don’t have particular ire for any individual Dodgers player. And we are supposed to judge people individually, yes? It’s not Freddie Freeman’s fault that he wanted to play in Los Angeles and the Dodgers offered him a massive contract. I guess I don’t really care for Blake Snell, but that’s mostly because of the bags under his eyes, which he might not be able to control.
I would like to see the Brewers get the job done. I have an October birthday, and my family has never been about buying gifts based on their own ideas. So every year they ask me what I want for my birthday, which is just silly. It’s not fun, and I’m at the point in my life where if I want something of marginal cost, I just buy it for myself.
But the last couple times I didn’t answer the question about what I want, I’ve gotten a multi-meter, a Battery Daddy, a frying pan, and a broom. I’m not even kidding about that. I will admit that the Battery Daddy was an awesome gift and I love having it, and I never would have bought it myself. So my parents aren’t batting .000, but they’re certainly below the Mendoza Line.
All of that is to say that I asked for a Brewers hat this year. It’s possible that I get the hat after they’re eliminated, but it’s a cool-looking hat and I’ll wear it anyways. The Brewers and Rays are the two most impressive organizations in the league in my book, so I’ll be happy to see one of them take it down. It gives you hope as a small-market fan that it’s possible to do. I think the Brewers are technically the smallest market in the whole league. Them taking down the World Series would be a beautiful thing in a lot of ways.
It would strengthen the argument of the owners in CBA negotiations, but I don’t really care about that. I’m not one of these fake freedom fighters who just hates rich people because they’re rich.
I find it really funny when people state so brazenly that the small market owners could spend way more money on payroll and cite their net worth as the reason. Take the example of Bob Nutting and the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates are valued around 1.4 billion dollars. Nutting is valued at 1.1 billion. People see that Nutting is worth $1.4 billion and somehow think that he could easily spend hundreds of millions on players. But most of his net worth is based on owning the $1.1 billion asset that is the Pirates. So the argument becomes that Nutting could spend more money on his team by … selling his team. Makes no sense.
Now hold on, before the anti-capitalists yell at me, I do realize it’s not quite that simple. I am sure that Nutting could spend more on the roster. They get a lot of money through the luxury tax that they don’t seem to earmark properly. It’s a complicated thing, and I’m not going to sit here and claim that people aren’t greedy. That’s one of our defining characteristics: selfishness and a lust for money and power. And the greed part applies even more to super rich people, their greed and relentless pursuit of maximal profit is a reason they got super rich in the first place.
So it’s not as simple as either side wants to make it. I’m in the middle somewhere. At the end of the day, I don’t care which side “wins” the lockout, I just want them to agree on a deal before March so we can get a normal season in next year. I’m financially and emotionally tied to that outcome, so that’s all I care about. And there you go, that’s me being greedy and selfish. I want the MORE PROFIT from MLB DW next year than I got this year, and I don’t want to be sitting around in April with no baseball numbers rolling in. I’m not even sure what I would do at that point. I’d have to get some other side gig next year if there’s no baseball, and what else can I do? I guess I could go into the dishwasher repair business - badd ummm ttchhtt!
So let’s talk about these playoff teams and get a feel for what might happen. This is a foolish venture anyways because baseball remains the sport the most prone to variance. It might not seem like it anymore with the Dodgers taking three of the last five crowns, but I think this 31% chance of them winning the World Series is over-stated.
Dodgers
I won’t deny they’re the best team in the playoffs by a good margin. The main reason for that is the pitching staff.
Tarik Skubal
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Blake Snell
Tyler Glasnow
They won’t need more than those four, so they’ll have a stone ACE on the mound in every game. But Ohtani won’t be able to pitch for them (boooo hooooo), and their bullpen has been in much better shape than it is right now. Blake Treinen is done, Edwin Diaz has been turbo-buns since getting healthy. Tanner Scott is very good but has never been able to find a consistent groove to become a lock-down reliever. The command can disappear at a moment’s notice. Alex Vesia, Brock Stewart, Roki Sasaki.. I mean, there’s plenty left to be desired in that pen.
The offense has also been a lot better. Some OPS marks since August:
Betts .903
Edman .623
Tucker .744
Freeman .609
Hernandez .820
Muncy .824
Ohtani .745
Pages .880
Smith .948
There’s not a bad hitter in the starting lineup, and it’s still one of the better lineups in the postseason, but it’s a lineup full of mostly past-their-prime bats.
I’m just saying that there’s a path. The Braves or Phillies could absolutely knock them out in a best-of-five. I might give the Phillies the better odds of doing being able to send Sanchez + Wheeler + Luzardo (hopefully) to the hill to win those three games.
If the Brewers get to the NLCS, they have Misiorowski to shove for a couple of games (and quite likely three games if it goes seven), and a very strong SP2 in Logan Henderson, plus a pesky offense that manufactures runs with the best of them. I don’t think you’d see many runs in that one, and it could be elite.
Brewers
It’s about starting pitching and small ball with the Brewers. Misiorowski finished with a 1.80 ERA, Henderson at 2.47, two of the best K-BB% pitchers in the league. What’s behind those two is Robert Gasser, Dustin May, and Shane Drohan. I suspect they use a ton of bullpen arms in games not started by Mis or Henderson. But they have some weapons there with Ashby, Megill, Uribe, and others.
They finished with 154 homers, the third-least in the league. That’s the achilles heel, but they led the league in batting average, they were second in OBP, and stole the fourth-most bases. That’s how they win. Get on base, move guys around, and manufacture runs. Their approach against the Dodgers would certainly be to work counts and get those starters out of the game early, playing for some late-game 3-2 victories. That stuff is boring in the regular season, but there are few things better in sports than a 1-1 tie in the 8th inning when it’s like 45 degrees outside.
Rays
They hit .258/.326/.401 this year. It was a middle-of-the-pack offense in run scoring (they ranked 12th). They also don’t have a great rotation.
Drew Rasmussen
Freddy Peralta
Ian Seymour
Griffin Jax
Nick Martinez
They’ll let Rasmussen get deep into the games, but I kind of doubt anybody else pitches more than 4+ innings at a time. They want to play the matchups and use that bullpen creatively.
Anything can happen, but I’m just not sure I see the firepower on either side of hte ball for Tampa to really make some waves.
They are helped by the fact that the American League just kinda sucks. The two best teams in the league are on the other side of the bracket, so it’s pretty wide-open on the AL side, and having that bye week and home field advantage is a helper for them.
The Rays posted a 17.3% K-BB% at home this year with a 3.29 JA SIERA. On the road, it was a 14.5% K-BB% and a 3.63 JA SIERA. They have one of the bigger home game edges in the postseason, so that’s a key point to make for their chances as the #1 seed.
Yankees
They have either the 2nd or 3rd best rotation in the postseason. They’ve done a good job getting everybody healthy, and they’ll send Schlittler, Fried, and Cole (if necessary) to the hill in their Wild Card series with Boston. Carlos Rodon has been elite for his last handful of outings, so he’s ready to play a big part of it as well.
The trouble is with the offense. They’re probably going to force Judge back into the lineup, but there’s no way he’s healthy. The Yankees had the fifth-worst team OPS (.688) in the second half. It’s just not a very good lineup.
Maybe Judge is healthy and will carry the offense. That seems unlikely, but it’s not impossible.
I’m surprised they’re the most-likely WS champ outside of the bye week teams. They have a better chance than Cleveland, who is already in the second round. Doesn’t seem quite right to me, I’m a Yankees doubter right now.
Padres
They were my sleeper pick last year, and they’re in that conversation again this year. The bullpen is just so good. Their non-starters went for a 3.53 ERA and 1.25 WHIP this year. The fourth-best K-BB% in the league. And if you look just at their main guys:
Mason Miller: 1.67 ERA, 0.90 WHIP
Adrian Morejon: 2.83 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
Yuki Matsui: 1.83 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
Jason Adam: 2.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
They are missing Jeremiah Estrada for this series and possibly the next if they make it. But those four are nails.
The rotation is bad, though. It’s Robbie Ray, Nick Pivetta, and Michael King. None of those guys are considered ace pitchers by any of us alleged ball-knowers. They can’t possibly send Casey Mize out there with what he’s been doing. So they will need some luck to survive the first 4-5 innings to make any waves.
Offensively, their lineup is relatively deep and carried right now by two studs. Fernando Tatis has a .978 OPS since August 1st, Jackson Merrill is at .892. Manny Machado hasn’t had the greatest finish to the season (.664 OPS over his last 51 games), but that’s a good bat to have.
France, Cronenworth, Bogaerts… nothing special there but they’ve all been helpful at times.
It’s a roster that pales in comparison the Dodgers, but that bullpen could carry them quite a ways.
Guardians
The worst team to achieve a bye. Gavin Williams and Parker Messick make for a nice 1-2 combo, but behind them it’s pretty rough (Bibee, Griffin?). They hit .238/.316/.380 this year, and they were one of the better matchups for pitchers. So I don’t see how they get very far even though they have the advantage of getting into the second round by default and having home field advantage there.
The Guardians have confused us for years. They don’t have a good roster, their team stats don’t look very good, but they are here in October every time anyways. It seems like a team built for the regular season, though.
Cubs
They went to work at the trade deadline to try to get a rotation that could help their offense. They brought in Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes, and David Peterson. Gausman has a 4.83 ERA with the Cubs, Holmes is at 4.25. Peterson’s been good with a 3.02 ERA, but a 1.45 WHIP - so there’s luck there.
It’s really not a late-October rotation to bet on. However, they have one of the best offenses in the league. They got broken-faced Bregman back in a hurry, and they have the MVP and a solid lineup all the way down.
Things will have to get weird for them to make the run. They will need a low BABIP from their pitchers. They’re going to try to get the other team to hit a bunch of balls on the ground and let their elite infield defense to go to work. It could happen, but the rotation really doesn’t inspire much confidence. They’ll be going Imanaga - Gausman - Holmes - Boyd - Peterson as the starters. Not a single lockdown guy, and all of those names have been beaten up several times this year.
Their bullpen is also very spotty. Wdbb, Zeferjahn, and Palencia will be the leverage guys. It’s far from the worst bullpen back-end in the league, but it’s probably one of the worst in the playoffs.
Braves & Phillies
I think whichever team wins this awesome NLWC series has a good shot at it. The Braves have Chris Sale and a high-powered offense plus an elite bullpen. Their rotation behind Sale is questionable, but they check two of the three big boxes (starting pitcher, offense, bullpen). They’ll have no reason to not let Sale throw as many innings as he possibly can. We could see a Bumgarner-esque postseason from Sale.
The Phillies offense has regressed majorly, that’s the main reason they barely made it into the playoffs with a win yesterday.
Harper and Schwarber carried them, but they got very little help from anybody else. Brandon Marsh had the big first half, but he’s been one of the worst in the league since he showed his greasy hair at the All-Star Game.
Trea Turner might be cooked; it’s sad to say, but this was his worst season, and it hasn’t heated up lately.
The Phillies will need lockdown innings from Wheeler + Sanchez, and then they’ll need Luzardo to come back healthy. And they’ll need some well-timed homers from Schwarber and Harper. But I do think they have a chance. The pitching is very, very good.
Red Sox
We love some Payton Tolle here at MLB DW. And we could see the return of Garrett Crochet at some point, which would be exhilarating. Sonny Gray is probably their game one starter tomorow, and he’s had a nice season. They’ve had a great year from the bullpen as well, and they have a gamer on Ranger Suarez who has a bunch of postseason experience to lean on. So their pitching is good enough to win a few series.
It’s the offense that makes you doubt it. Roman Anthony has returned to have some success, and Willson Contreras has been one of the better hitters in the league. Add in Wilyer Abreu, and it’s not a horrible core of bats. But there are just a lot of really weak-hitting dudes that end up in these lineups.
But all things considered, with the AL being pretty weak, I like the Red Sox chances. They’re 75-55 since that bad first month, and getting Crochet back could be huge for them. Maybe it’s a stretch to think he can come back and be an ace right away, but it’s not a crazy idea either. The guy’s stuff is ridiculous.
I’m going to end up liking whatever team comes out of the ATL/PHI and BOS/NYY series.
The two teams that are basically drawing dead are the Astros and White Sox. They’re at the bottom of the list. The Astros limp into the playoffs with an 81-81 record. Their rotation is poor, and their offense is pretty much just Jeremy Peña and Yordan Alvarez. There’s a reason they couldn’t win more games than they lost, and their run differential was -32.
The White Sox have a surprisingly good run differential at +56. But their rotation must be the worst in the playoffs. Sean Burke, Anthony Kay, Davis Martin… it’s a yikes machine. They’ll probably roll Erick Fedde out there for meaningful innings. That’s not going to work unless they get some sort of 10-homer postseason from Murakami or things just go crazy weird. I’d bet on us seeing a lot of Grant Taylor and Hagen Smith, the young duo of elite arms the White Sox have. Those are their two best pitchers, but they are both rookies playing the longest seasons they’ve ever played.
Don’t get me wrong, I’ll root for the White Sox. That could be pretty fun. This is a team that lost 121 games just two years ago, so them making a run would be quite a story.
My Final Thoughts
In a vaccum, ignoring the bye weeks, here’s how I’d rank the postseason teams.
Dodgers
Brewers
Cubs
Phillies
Braves
Rays
Padres
Red Sox
Yankees
Guardians
Astros
White Sox
If I were a betting man, which I am, I’d buy some odds on the Cubs, Phillies, Braves, Padres, and Red Sox. And I’d be looking to sell at a profit when it happens.
But basically, I’m rooting for as many 3+ game slates as possible so we can play more DFS, and I want zero blowouts. I want every game to come down to the final innings. I want at least three 12+ inning games. I want the playoffs to be so good and magical and whimsical that the lockout ends before it starts. I want world peace and no more hunger. JA 2028.
Enjoy it all while it lasts, loyal MLB DW subscribers.
"there are few things better in sports than a 1-1 tie in the 8th inning when it’s like 45 degrees outside." Amen.