MLB Daily Notes: Saturday, August 13
Introduction / Explanation For New Readers
Michael Kopech had a wild game pretty much out of nowhere (okay, it was against the Tigers, but…). He had 22 whiffs:
The 17 on his four-seamer were the eighth-most on a single pitch this season, here’s the updated whiffs by pitch leaderboard:
Just a wild start. A testament to
How deceptive his fastball can be
How bad the Tigers are
What random chance can do
It was one of his better velocity days, but it wasn’t enough to show up in the “increased velo” thing below.
I’m still not really a fan given the bad 10.5% K-BB%. This is probably just a start that will set people up to start him next time where he’ll disappoint you.
Austin Voth had a freaking good start; it’s starting to look like that guy isn’t the loser we thought he was. He went for a 36.3% CSW% and a 13.8% SwStr%. For the season now:
27.1% CSW%
12.6% SwStr%
23.2% K%
6.8% BB%
35.4 PA/HR
.378 SLG against
Definitely not someone to stack against every time out like we thought at first.
We have a couple of interesting debuts today. DL Hall will take the mound for Baltimore. Guy has the 10th-best K% in all of pro baseball, as told by the MLB and MiLB Pitching Stats dash. But he has a bottom-20 BB% of 13%. I imagine this dude comes out with a line of like
4 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 5 K, 4 BB
BOOK IT
The other guy is Lance McCullers, who has struggled with the walk himself in his rehab work - that’s nothing new for Lance, I’d be very hesitant to start him right now.
Seeing a lot of velocity decliners below. Clevinger stands out losing a couple of MPH on the cutter - but his other fastballs maintained their velocity so I wouldn’t read into it as much. In general, I think we only want to be concerned about velo losses to four-seamers and sinkers. That doesn’t mean to ignore the other pitches, but if you lose velocity on a slider or something while the fastballs stay steady - I wouldn’t take it with much seriousness.
George Kirby is looking like a stud! In his four starts since the All-Star Break he has a 28.9% K% and a 3.6% BB% - that’s the 12th best K-BB% in the league since the break. I liked him a lot even with a K% of 22%, so I’d be thrilled to have him right now if he’s up in the upper twenties. He’s someone I’ll be gunning for in drafts next year - and I think he could even be a McClanahan-type guy in 2023.
Trayce Thompson is on the Magic Formula Qualifiers
Lars Nootbaar is on the super ultra mega hot hitters list
Josh Bell has been awful lately
Top 10 JA hitters of August
Max Muncy
Aaron Judge
Juan Soto
Nolan Arenado
Paul Goldschmidt
Adley Rutschman
Ryan McMahon
Francisco Lindor
Alex Bregman
Lars Nootbaar
Minor League Hitter of the Day
JAKE SLAUGHTER: I have to type his name in capitals, my keyboard doesn’t let me do it any other way. He went 4/6 with 2 dingers and 42 DraftKings points. He’s a Cubs farmhand, currently in AA playing for the Tennessee Smokies!
Minor League Pitcher of the Day
Reese Olson: 6 scoreless innings, 10 K, 1 BB
He’s a AA pitcher for the Tigers. He has an elite 33.9% K% and a nice 7.7% BB% for the year.
Let me know if you like these ^, I might automate something to do it every day - although the minor league season is over in a few weeks so maybe it’s not worth it. Something for next year for sure though!
Okay here’s the rest of the report:
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Michael Kopech (CWS): 25.9 SwStr%, 44.7 CSW%
2. Austin Voth (BAL): 13.8 SwStr%, 36.2 CSW%
3. Tyler Mahle (MIN): 14.0 SwStr%, 32.6 CSW%
4. Luis Garcia (HOU): 10.3 SwStr%, 32.0 CSW%
5. Carlos Rodon (SF): 12.7 SwStr%, 30.9 CSW%
6. Corey Kluber (TB): 14.8 SwStr%, 30.7 CSW%
7. Cal Quantrill (CLE): 12.2 SwStr%, 30.6 CSW%
8. Mike Mayers (LAA): 16.1 SwStr%, 29.0 CSW%
9. Cory Abbott (WSH): 10.0 SwStr%, 28.9 CSW%
10. Jordan Montgomery (STL): 13.0 SwStr%, 28.7 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Michael Kopech - 6.0 IP - 94.25 JA Points
2. Carlos Rodon - 6.0 IP - 68.25 JA Points
3. Max Scherzer - 7.0 IP - 60.0 JA Points
4. Cal Quantrill - 7.0 IP - 59.0 JA Points
5. Jordan Montgomery - 6.0 IP - 50.5 JA Points
6. Ranger Suarez - 7.0 IP - 43.5 JA Points
7. Austin Voth - 5.33 IP - 43.0 JA Points
8. Tyler Mahle - 6.0 IP - 41.75 JA Points
9. Corey Kluber - 5.33 IP - 36.75 JA Points
10. Mike Mayers - 4.0 IP - 33.75 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 13 GS - 56.81 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 22 GS - 54.39 JA Points
3. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 19 GS - 52.76 JA Points
4. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 21 GS - 52.71 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 23 GS - 51.69 JA Points
6. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 23 GS - 49.02 JA Points
7. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 23 GS - 48.13 JA Points
8. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 16 GS - 48.06 JA Points
9. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 17 GS - 44.97 JA Points
10. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 17 GS - 44.41 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
George Kirby's CU velo (14 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 82.4
Pablo Lopez's FF velo (29 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 94.7
Patrick Sandoval's CH velo (20 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 82.4
Luis Garcia's CU velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 76.0
Nathan Eovaldi's FF velo (37 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 94.4
Bryse Wilson's FF velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 91.2
Eric Lauer's FC velo (29 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 88.9
Ranger Suarez's CH velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 83.5
Nathan Eovaldi's CU velo (18 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 76.5
Adam Oller's SL velo (14 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 80.0
Bryse Wilson's SL velo (15 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 81.2
George Kirby's SL velo (17 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 85.5
Daniel Norris's SL velo (21 pitches) DOWN -2.7mph to 77.9
Nathan Eovaldi's FC velo (19 pitches) DOWN -2.7mph to 88.6
Mike Clevinger's FC velo (11 pitches) DOWN -2.9mph to 84.8
Nathan Eovaldi's SL velo (15 pitches) DOWN -4.4mph to 82.1
Eric Lauer's SL velo (10 pitches) DOWN -5.0mph to 83.0
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Corey Kluber's CH usage (23.9%) up 13.7 points
Domingo German's FF usage (40.7%) up 15.1 points
Eric Lauer's FC usage (30.5%) up 18.5 points
George Kirby's SI usage (24.1%) up 20.2 points
Jake Odorizzi's FS usage (25.3%) up 12.2 points
Jordan Montgomery's FF usage (33.3%) up 23.5 points
Jose Berrios's CH usage (23.3%) up 10.2 points
Mike Clevinger's SI usage (23.4%) up 12.9 points
Mike Mayers's FF usage (62.9%) up 16.4 points
Taylor Hearn's FF usage (63.5%) up 18.0 points
Tyler Mahle's FC usage (24.4%) up 12.4 points
Zach Davies's SI usage (65.9%) up 15.0 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Drew Smyly - 90 TBF, 39.5% CSW%
Nick Lodolo - 93 TBF, 38.1% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 101 TBF, 35.4% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 103 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Brady Singer - 103 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Adam Wainwright - 76 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Chris Bassitt - 114 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Alex Cobb - 98 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Michael Kopech - 87 TBF, 32.0% CSW%
Framber Valdez - 110 TBF, 31.8% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Alex Cobb - 98 TBF, 32.7% K%
Blake Snell - 89 TBF, 32.6% K%
Carlos Rodon - 92 TBF, 32.6% K%
Gerrit Cole - 101 TBF, 30.7% K%
Brady Singer - 103 TBF, 30.1% K%
Nestor Cortes - 87 TBF, 29.9% K%
Joe Ryan - 91 TBF, 29.7% K%
Yu Darvish - 78 TBF, 29.5% K%
Zack Wheeler - 100 TBF, 29.0% K%
George Kirby - 83 TBF, 28.9% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Carlos Rodon - 92 TBF, 30.4% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 101 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 89 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Lance Lynn - 95 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
Brady Singer - 103 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 78 TBF, 25.6% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 91 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
George Kirby - 83 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Alex Cobb - 98 TBF, 24.5% K-BB%
Shane Bieber - 103 TBF, 23.3% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 110 TBF, 68.9% GB%
Logan Webb - 80 TBF, 63.9% GB%
Antonio Senzatela - 103 TBF, 63.0% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 92 TBF, 62.5% GB%
Chris Bassitt - 114 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Kyle Wright - 103 TBF, 57.9% GB%
Max Fried - 79 TBF, 55.2% GB%
Merrill Kelly - 100 TBF, 55.2% GB%
Alex Cobb - 98 TBF, 54.4% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 106 TBF, 54.1% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Braxton Garrett - 69 TBF, 31.9 K%, 4.3 BB%, 46.3% GB%
George Kirby - 83 TBF, 28.9 K%, 3.6 BB%, 51.9% GB%
Shane Bieber - 103 TBF, 27.2 K%, 3.9 BB%, 52.1% GB%
Yu Darvish - 78 TBF, 29.5 K%, 3.8 BB%, 48.1% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Framber Valdez - +2.1% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Dean Kremer - +2.8% CSW%, -5.5 BB%
Triston McKenzie - +4.7% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Adam Wainwright - +2.7% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Gerrit Cole - +2.1% CSW%, -4.4 BB%
Joe Ryan - +2.7% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Braxton Garrett - +3.5% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Spenser Watkins - +2.0% CSW%, -5.8 BB%
Justin Steele - +2.5% CSW%, -6.7 BB%
Erasmo Ramirez - +3.9% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Will Smith (LAD) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 3 Barrels, 0 HR
Austin Riley (ATL) 4 PA, 13 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Juan Soto (SD) 6 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Michael Harris II (ATL) 3 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Mike Yastrzemski (SF) 4 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Trayce Thompson (LAD) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Trent Grisham - 5.0 PA - 66.0 JA Points
2. Brandon Drury - 5.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
3. Trayce Thompson - 4.0 PA - 55.0 JA Points
4. Will Smith - 5.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
5. Aaron Judge - 5.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
6. Mike Yastrzemski - 4.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
7. Jose Ramirez - 5.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
8. Austin Riley - 4.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
9. Alex Verdugo - 4.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
10. Kyle Tucker - 4.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 394.0 PA - 149.85 JA Points
2. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 476.0 PA - 148.07 JA Points
3. Juan Soto (SD) - 473.0 PA - 133.78 JA Points
4. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 491.0 PA - 114.13 JA Points
5. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 371.0 PA - 111.81 JA Points
6. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 460.0 PA - 110.52 JA Points
7. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 271.0 PA - 104.21 JA Points
8. D.J. LeMahieu (NYY) - 452.0 PA - 103.36 JA Points
9. Adley Rutschman (BAL) - 266.0 PA - 100.6 JA Points
10. Will Smith (LAD) - 400.0 PA - 100.4 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 114.9mph - foul
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 114.9mph - field_out
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 113.8mph - home_run
Oscar Gonzalez (CLE) - 112.7mph - single
Brian Anderson (MIA) - 112.0mph - home_run
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 111.9mph - foul
Nolan Jones (CLE) - 111.8mph - single
Adolis Garcia (TEX) - 111.5mph - single
Juan Soto (SD) - 111.4mph - double
Michael Harris II (ATL) - 111.4mph - double
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 80 PA, 45 BIP, 15 Brls, 33.3 Brl%
Austin Riley - 78 PA, 56 BIP, 16 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Paul DeJong - 48 PA, 29 BIP, 8 Brls, 27.6 Brl%
Max Muncy - 65 PA, 40 BIP, 10 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 74 PA, 43 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
Matt Chapman - 66 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%
Bobby Dalbec - 55 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 76 PA, 44 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Nolan Gorman - 48 PA, 30 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Anthony Rizzo - 54 PA, 36 BIP, 7 Brls, 19.4 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 80 PA, 0.588 xwOBA
Austin Riley - 78 PA, 0.457 xwOBA
Trayce Thompson - 48 PA, 0.451 xwOBA
Paul DeJong - 48 PA, 0.447 xwOBA
Paul Goldschmidt - 65 PA, 0.436 xwOBA
Anthony Rizzo - 54 PA, 0.431 xwOBA
Nolan Arenado - 64 PA, 0.427 xwOBA
Pete Alonso - 77 PA, 0.427 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 74 PA, 0.425 xwOBA
Francisco Lindor - 83 PA, 0.424 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Bryson Stott - 71 PA, 128 Swings, 94.5 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 67 PA, 131 Swings, 92.4 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 92 PA, 143 Swings, 92.3 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 78 PA, 143 Swings, 92.3 Cont%
Yuli Gurriel - 74 PA, 118 Swings, 90.7 Cont%
Luis Guillorme - 57 PA, 96 Swings, 89.6 Cont%
Myles Straw - 71 PA, 104 Swings, 88.5 Cont%
D.J. LeMahieu - 83 PA, 135 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Mookie Betts - 91 PA, 161 Swings, 87.6 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 63 PA, 104 Swings, 87.5 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Anthony Rizzo - 54 PA, 16.7 K%, 19.4 Brl%
Eloy Jimenez - 74 PA, 18.9 K%, 17.9 Brl%
J.T. Realmuto - 62 PA, 17.7 K%, 17.0 Brl%
Lars Nootbaar - 62 PA, 11.3 K%, 15.9 Brl%
Nolan Arenado - 64 PA, 15.6 K%, 17.0 Brl%
Paul Goldschmidt - 65 PA, 20.0 K%, 18.6 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 77 PA, 15.6 K%, 15.5 Brl%
Seth Brown - 48 PA, 18.8 K%, 18.8 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
MJ Melendez - +7.3% Contact%, +5.7 mph exit velo, -8.8 Chase%
Anthony Santander - +12.0% Contact%, +5.6 mph exit velo, -7.5 Chase%
Nolan Arenado - +4.1% Contact%, +4.0 mph exit velo, -3.1 Chase%
Mike Yastrzemski - +3.9% Contact%, +3.2 mph exit velo, -7.2 Chase%
Mitch Haniger - +8.0% Contact%, +5.6 mph exit velo, -6.6 Chase%
Paul DeJong - +4.3% Contact%, +9.0 mph exit velo, -12.2 Chase%
Bo Bichette - +4.6% Contact%, +4.2 mph exit velo, -7.5 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Aaron Judge - 0.602 xwOBA, 31.2% Brl%, 75.5% Contact%, 21.1% Chase%, 16.1% K%
Juan Soto - 0.484 xwOBA, 15.4% Brl%, 85.9% Contact%, 13.6% Chase%, 7.0% K%
Lars Nootbaar - 0.407 xwOBA, 13.5% Brl%, 76.3% Contact%, 21.2% Chase%, 11.5% K%
Ryan McMahon - 0.39 xwOBA, 11.8% Brl%, 75.5% Contact%, 19.8% Chase%, 22.0% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Marcell Ozuna - 35.5% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.954 Cold Rating
Victor Reyes - 34.6% Whiff%, 73.9% Weak%, 0.935 Cold Rating
Ezequiel Duran - 34.4% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.913 Cold Rating
Josh Bell - 32.0% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.909 Cold Rating
Jarren Duran - 31.2% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.895 Cold Rating
Max Stassi - 30.1% Whiff%, 74.1% Weak%, 0.862 Cold Rating
Jonah Heim - 29.4% Whiff%, 79.2% Weak%, 0.859 Cold Rating
Ramon Urias - 33.0% Whiff%, 68.6% Weak%, 0.85 Cold Rating
Eugenio Suarez - 35.0% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.845 Cold Rating
Mark Canha - 34.8% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.841 Cold Rating
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