MLB Daily Notes - September 27th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Started this book last night:
and it got me thinking about DYING. So I took this poll:
And to be honest, I’m pretty stunned at how many people said No. So I started thinking, and I guess I made some sense of it.
There are really two ways to not be afraid to die, I suppose
Believe strongly that there is an afterlife that is better than this one
Believe strongly that absolutely nothing happens after death
If you believe you’re going to heaven, and that heaven is a great place, then you would almost be excited to die. If you think you just cease to exist completely after death, then there’s really nothing to be afraid of.
I just kind of doubt that 50% of people have a strong enough believe on either side to really beat the fear that comes from the idea. Personally, I’m in the first bullet point camp. I have been a Bible-believing Christian my whole life. The first reason for that was because it was how I was raised - but as an adult, I’ve really rediscovered it brand new and that has given me an actual, sturdy faith. So I believe that there is a heaven and that because of my faith and reliance on God that I will go there - but that doesn’t mean I would have definitely voted “No” on the poll. It’s a scary thought to imagine dying today and leaving behind my wife and three kids. A one-parent household is not a great situation for kids, so I really wouldn’t want that happening for my kids. But I guess the poll is more asking to ignore those kinds of externalities and just ask at the root - are you afraid of what might happen after death?
I think that death is a good thing to think about, at least way more often than we do. The spiritual questions are really important to have an answer to, but in our culture today we seem to just want to push those questions away and not really think about them because we either get uncomfortable or we just assume those questions can never be answered anyways so why bother. But man, the question of God is not one you want to be wrong about.
It would also be pretty tragic if I died because I wouldn’t get to do all of this offseason baseball writing for the 2024 season. I’m getting giddy just thinking about it. Team write-ups, automated player reports, dashboard updates, and massively improved season-long projections! Oh my!
Pitchers - Yesterday
Another big one for Reese Olson, who has been excellent down the stretch. In September:
5 GS, 31.1 IP, 15 H, 5 ER, 25 K, 9 BB, 3 HR, 3 W, 22.3% K%, 8.0% BB%
That’s a 1.43 ERA. It’s not super believable given the more pedestrian K-BB%, and his fastball still stinks (6.7% SwStr%, 46% Strike%, 25% GB%, .393 xwOBA). It’s a col name though for sure, I think “Reese” would be on the short list of names for me if I ever had another kid. But let’s be honest, if I have another boy he’s going to be named Griffin Canning Anderson. Okay, maybe not with that middle name - but I would definitely submit the name Griffin for consideration to my wife, even though that does exceed the four-character limit.
Cristian Javier had a 17.6% SwStr%, so that trend has continued. Here’s how his season SwStr% has looked after every outing this year:
These plots are a little misleading because the starts at the beginning of the season make such a bigger impact on the season total as the later ones, so the fact that the line is clearly moving upward at the end there is more significant than it seems. It’s tough to add a point to your season SwStr% this late in the season, but that’s about what Javier has done. If we zoom in a little more:
The other problem with getting hung up on SwStr% is that you’re not looking at the actual result, which is a problem! He has been throwing 4-5 innings lately and still giving up some runs, so it’s not like he’s been an ace recently or anything - but yeah it’s really good for him to see the whiffs returning.
Career-high nine strikeouts for Bobby Miller, and in Coors Field no less!
Here’s the arsenal from last night:
He’s up to a 23.4% K% and a 12.8% SwStr% on the season now.
His four-seamer has averaged 99.1mph on the year and has a Stuff+ of 132 (according to Drew Haugen’s model). Overall he has a 153 Stuff+ and every single one of his pitches is above 130. Maybe Drew’s model is biased to him or something because this is just ridiculous stuff.
Only Tyler Glasnow has a higher Stuff+ than him (10 GS minimum)
Really exciting and believable pitch mix, and I think this dude could end up a top 10 SP as soon as next season. For our fantasy purposes, we almost have to hope he struggles in the playoffs or the Dodgers have a quick exit or something because after people see this guy they’re going to start having very good thoughts about him in their heads.
Last week we highlighted Michael King as a massive K% outlier. He had a bad SwStr% with an insanely high K% since joining the rotation, and here’s what happened last night:
6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 5 K, 5 BB
Pretty great result there with just the one hit, but you can see that the strikeout rate came way down and there was a big problem throwing strikes. His Strike% was bad at 39.8% and the Ball% was the third-highest on the night at 46.9%. Now, since September:
12.1% SwStr%, 52.1% Strike%, 35.1% Ball%, 39.3% K%, 7.9% BB%
We see this stuff happen from time to time when a guy comes out of the bullpen into a starter’s role and they look really good right away. They kind of use their bullpen stuff for a little bit before realizing or accepting that they have to change their approach a bit to stick in the role of throwing 80+ pitches every five games. Obviously nobody expects King to be a 39% K% guy, nobody can do that - but I would take it way further to say I don’t even think he could be a 29% K% guy in a starter’s role. I’m not sure if we’ll ever get the answer to that - but if he’s in the rotation next year and people are excited about him for fantasy - I will likely be way out on him.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Seth Lugo (vs. SF): 33.91 Points
2. Bailey Ober (vs. OAK): 30.05 Points
3. Bobby Miller (vs. COL): 29.55 Points
4. Kyle Bradish (vs. WSH): 27.0 Points
5. Reid Detmers (vs. TEX): 26.95 Points
6. Aaron Nola (vs. PIT): 26.61 Points
7. Ryan Pepiot (vs. COL): 25.9 Points
8. Miles Mikolas (vs. MIL): 23.55 Points
9. Kevin Gausman (vs. NYY): 22.75 Points
10. George Kirby (vs. HOU): 21.9 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Reese Olson (DET): 22 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
2. Ryan Pepiot (LAD): 19 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
3. Aaron Nola (PHI): 17 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
4. Bobby Miller (LAD): 16 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
5. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 16 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
6. Cristian Javier (HOU): 16 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
7. Bailey Ober (MIN): 16 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
8. Josiah Gray (WSH): 14 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
9. Ryne Nelson (ARI): 12 Whiffs (62 Pitches)
10. Lucas Giolito (CLE): 12 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Bailey Ober (MIN): 60.5 Strike%, 30.2 Ball%
2. Bobby Miller (LAD): 53.8 Strike%, 27.5 Ball%
3. George Kirby (SEA): 53.6 Strike%, 25.0 Ball%
4. Aaron Nola (PHI): 52.2 Strike%, 31.1 Ball%
5. Ryne Nelson (ARI): 50.0 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%
6. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 49.5 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
7. Alex Wood (SF): 49.4 Strike%, 34.9 Ball%
8. Josiah Gray (WSH): 49.0 Strike%, 35.7 Ball%
9. Reese Olson (DET): 48.9 Strike%, 35.9 Ball%
10. Ryan Pepiot (LAD): 48.4 Strike%, 37.9 Ball%
11. Cristian Javier (HOU): 48.4 Strike%, 39.6 Ball%
12. Mitch Keller (PIT): 47.8 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%
13. Miles Mikolas (STL): 47.5 Strike%, 31.7 Ball%
14. Seth Lugo (SD): 47.2 Strike%, 35.0 Ball%
15. Tanner Houck (BOS): 47.2 Strike%, 29.2 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Cristian Javier's CH velo (11 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 85.9
Ryan Pepiot's SL velo (11 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 90.7
George Kirby's SL velo (26 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 87.9
Ryan Feltner's SL velo (18 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 90.1
Aaron Nola's SI velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 90.3
Hunter Greene's SL velo (28 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 85.9
Jose Urena's SI velo (28 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 93.6
Zach Eflin's SI velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 90.6
Zack Greinke's SL velo (21 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 77.6
Lucas Giolito's SL velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 82.1
Zach Eflin's FF velo (14 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 91.1
Bobby Miller's CH velo (12 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 86.2
Bobby Miller's SL velo (15 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 87.7
Reid Detmers's CU velo (22 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 72.5
Xzavion Curry's SL velo (23 pitches) DOWN -2.8mph to 82.4
Reid Detmers's SL velo (16 pitches) DOWN -3.0mph to 85.9
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Bailey Ober's CH usage (45.3%) up 16.4 points
Bobby Miller's FF usage (46.2%) up 19.3 points
Cody Bradford's CH usage (42.5%) up 16.3 points
George Kirby's SL usage (31.0%) up 11.4 points
Jose Urena's SI usage (37.8%) up 12.5 points
Josiah Gray's SI usage (38.8%) up 21.9 points
Lucas Giolito's CH usage (49.0%) up 21.3 points
Mitch Keller's FC usage (34.8%) up 10.1 points
Reid Detmers's CH usage (16.0%) up 11.0 points
Ryan Feltner's FF usage (40.4%) up 13.6 points
Ryne Nelson's FF usage (64.5%) up 10.4 points
Ryne Nelson's SL usage (22.6%) up 10.5 points
Tanner Houck's SI usage (43.1%) up 13.9 points
Zach Davies's SI usage (56.9%) up 24.6 points
Zach Eflin's FF usage (19.7%) up 13.9 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Cal Quantrill Split-Finger: +33.4%
Josiah Gray Sinker: +24.9%
Reid Detmers Slider: -21.8%
Jose Urena 4-Seam Fastball: -20.6%
Framber Valdez Sinker: -20.4%
Lucas Giolito Changeup: +20.3%
Reid Detmers Changeup: +18.1%
Cal Quantrill Sinker: -17.0%
Brandon Pfaadt Sinker: +16.7%
Bailey Falter 4-Seam Fastball: -16.7%
Sean Manaea 4-Seam Fastball: +16.3%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -16.0%
Bailey Falter Slider: +14.8%
Logan Webb Sinker: -14.8%
Cal Quantrill Cutter: -14.6%
Jose Urena Sinker: +14.2%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: +14.1%
Josiah Gray Slider: -14.1%
Cristopher Sanchez Changeup: +14.1%
Quinn Priester Slider: +13.7%
Kyle Harrison 4-Seam Fastball: -13.7%
Brandon Woodruff Sinker: +13.6%
Wade Miley Changeup: +13.2%
Jordan Lyles 4-Seam Fastball: -13.0%
Griffin Canning Slider: -12.9%
Logan Gilbert Slider: +12.9%
Grayson Rodriguez Slider: -12.8%
Tanner Houck Slider: +12.7%
Jose Urena Changeup: +12.6%
Taijuan Walker Sinker: -12.5%
Luke Weaver Curveball: -12.5%
Grayson Rodriguez 4-Seam Fastball: +12.5%
Jordan Lyles Sinker: +12.3%
Miles Mikolas Sinker: -12.2%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Pablo Lopez - 74 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Michael King - 89 TBF, 35.9% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 67 TBF, 35.5% CSW%
Hunter Greene - 89 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Cristopher Sanchez - 93 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Kevin Gausman - 103 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 90 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Blake Snell - 96 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Jameson Taillon - 69 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Nick Pivetta - 92 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tarik Skubal - 67 TBF, 41.8% K%
Michael King - 89 TBF, 39.3% K%
Pablo Lopez - 74 TBF, 39.2% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 90 TBF, 36.7% K%
Hunter Greene - 89 TBF, 36.0% K%
David Peterson - 70 TBF, 35.7% K%
Cristian Javier - 80 TBF, 35.0% K%
Lucas Giolito - 93 TBF, 34.4% K%
Blake Snell - 96 TBF, 34.4% K%
Dylan Cease - 73 TBF, 32.9% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tarik Skubal - 67 TBF, 38.8% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 74 TBF, 37.8% K-BB%
Michael King - 89 TBF, 31.5% K-BB%
David Peterson - 70 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Zach Eflin - 88 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Hunter Greene - 89 TBF, 28.1% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 73 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 78 TBF, 26.9% K-BB%
Freddy Peralta - 82 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 90 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Webb - 109 TBF, 72.6% GB%
Quinn Priester - 67 TBF, 60.4% GB%
Edward Cabrera - 78 TBF, 59.1% GB%
Aaron Nola - 90 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 74 TBF, 57.1% GB%
David Peterson - 70 TBF, 56.4% GB%
Justin Steele - 92 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Jordan Wicks - 94 TBF, 55.8% GB%
Tanner Houck - 89 TBF, 55.7% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 93 TBF, 55.6% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Bobby Miller - 103 TBF, 30.1 K%, 4.9 BB%, 46.2% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 64 TBF, 28.1 K%, 7.8 BB%, 52.5% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 93 TBF, 28.0 K%, 4.3 BB%, 55.6% GB%
David Peterson - 70 TBF, 35.7 K%, 7.1 BB%, 56.4% GB%
Framber Valdez - 78 TBF, 32.1 K%, 6.4 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Freddy Peralta - 82 TBF, 28.0 K%, 1.2 BB%, 48.3% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 73 TBF, 30.1 K%, 4.1 BB%, 45.8% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 98 TBF, 27.6 K%, 4.1 BB%, 53.0% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 74 TBF, 39.2 K%, 1.4 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Ryan Yarbrough - 55 TBF, 30.9 K%, 5.5 BB%, 52.9% GB%
Sonny Gray - 69 TBF, 27.5 K%, 1.4 BB%, 51.1% GB%
Tanner Bibee - 44 TBF, 27.3 K%, 0.0 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 67 TBF, 41.8 K%, 3.0 BB%, 47.2% GB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 78 TBF, 32.1 K%, 5.1 BB%, 46.9% GB%
Zach Eflin - 88 TBF, 31.8 K%, 3.4 BB%, 45.6% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Mike Clevinger - +4.4% CSW%, -7.2 BB%
Cristopher Sanchez - +4.4% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Hunter Greene - +4.6% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Jose Urena - +3.0% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Javier Assad - +2.3% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Justin Verlander - +3.7% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Pablo Lopez - +6.3% CSW%, -5.0 BB%
Nick Pivetta - +4.5% CSW%, -6.3 BB%
Tarik Skubal - +5.7% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Brandon Pfaadt - +2.5% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Adrian Houser - +4.8% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Joey Wentz - +6.2% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Jack Flaherty - +3.2% CSW%, -5.5 BB%
Hitters
I tweeted this yesterday but I’ve gotta show it again because it’s just so beautiful.
This is a scatter plot of batted balls since 2021 and how they are classified in the Baseball Savant launch_speed_angle classification model. This is the model that gives us barrels (the yellow dots there). Most people know about barrels, but fewer people know that there are five other categories that work the same way. This plot explains it all by itself, and it is a thing of beauty:
So you can see that barrels are all at least 97.5 miles per hour and between 5 and 45 degrees - with that range expanding as the exit velocity goes up.
I might actually get that thing printed on a canvas and hang it up in my office (aka basement). Someone also recommended that I get that tattoo’d on me with no labels just to see if anybody ever sees it in real life and knows what it is. That would be a good way for me to make a new best friend, but I doubt I’d ever run into anybody who recognizes what they’re looking at! Also, I’m not a tattoo guy!
Multiple Barrels
Austin Wells (NYY) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Christian Walker (ARI) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Enmanuel Valdez (BOS) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Juan Soto (SD) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
It’s been a pretty disappointing season for Elly De La Cruz, but he hit a 119.2 mile-per-hour home run last night. That’s the fourth-hardest-hit homer of the last three seasons.
I personally am hoping the Reds sneak into the playoffs just because they have so many exciting players. Hunter Greene, Elly, Marte, CES (who is crushing these days). That would likely be the worst pitching staff in the postseason by far, and that would probably make it pretty unlikely for them to go anywhere - but yeah, I hope they sneak into a Wild Card game.