MLB Daily Notes: Sunday, August 14
Introduction / Explanation For New Readers
Jacob deGrom struck out half the hitters he faced but was pulled with just 76 pitches for the second straight outing. I projected him for 85 pitches and therefore bet the under 9.5 strikeouts on him because my model had him at 9.1 and I just thought there were so many ways for him to stay under 10. So I ate a bag on that one. The publically announced bets have been going horrible for me this year, so maybe I’ll just stop.
Minor Leaguers of the Day
Here are the top 5 DK scores from the minor leagues for hitters and pitchers:
Hitters
Pitchers
This Andrew Painter guy has been insane this year. In 18 starts, he has a 40.3% K% with an 8.1% BB% - that’s a 32.1% K-BB%, leads professional baseball by a huge margin.
He started the year in A ball for the Phillies but has worked his way to A+. He was the 13th overall pick in the draft last year - someone to keep an eye on!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jacob deGrom (NYM): 25.0 SwStr%, 40.8 CSW%
2. Reid Detmers (LAA): 18.8 SwStr%, 38.5 CSW%
3. Logan Webb (SF): 16.2 SwStr%, 38.4 CSW%
4. Corbin Burnes (MIL): 11.5 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
5. Adam Wainwright (STL): 10.1 SwStr%, 33.0 CSW%
6. Yu Darvish (SD): 12.5 SwStr%, 32.7 CSW%
7. Lucas Giolito (CWS): 18.5 SwStr%, 32.6 CSW%
8. Aaron Nola (PHI): 8.3 SwStr%, 32.3 CSW%
9. Shane McClanahan (TB): 20.0 SwStr%, 32.0 CSW%
10. Ian Anderson (ATL): 16.8 SwStr%, 31.7 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Jacob deGrom - 6.0 IP - 81.5 JA Points
2. Logan Webb - 8.0 IP - 66.0 JA Points
3. Ian Anderson - 6.0 IP - 63.0 JA Points
4. Aaron Nola - 8.0 IP - 61.5 JA Points
5. Lucas Giolito - 7.0 IP - 61.5 JA Points
6. Yu Darvish - 6.0 IP - 60.5 JA Points
7. Reid Detmers - 4.67 IP - 56.5 JA Points
8. Zac Gallen - 7.0 IP - 55.75 JA Points
9. Shane McClanahan - 6.0 IP - 53.5 JA Points
10. Corbin Burnes - 7.0 IP - 52.5 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 13 GS - 56.81 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 23 GS - 53.56 JA Points
3. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 19 GS - 52.76 JA Points
4. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 22 GS - 52.34 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 23 GS - 51.69 JA Points
6. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 23 GS - 49.02 JA Points
7. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 23 GS - 48.13 JA Points
8. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 16 GS - 48.06 JA Points
9. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 17 GS - 44.97 JA Points
10. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 17 GS - 44.41 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Carlos Hernandez's FF velo (25 pitches) UP 3.6mph to 99.2
Reid Detmers's SL velo (32 pitches) UP 3.5mph to 88.1
Matt Manning's FF velo (40 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 94.9
Carlos Hernandez's SL velo (22 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 87.0
Brad Keller's FF velo (26 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 95.9
Reid Detmers's CU velo (15 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 74.6
Graham Ashcraft's SI velo (34 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 98.4
Andrew Heaney's FF velo (41 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 93.8
Dane Dunning's SL velo (20 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 79.8
Dane Dunning's FC velo (14 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 88.0
Kyle Muller's CH velo (11 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 87.2
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Adam Wainwright's CU usage (41.3%) up 10.6 points
Carlos Hernandez's SL usage (40.0%) up 20.9 points
Frankie Montas's FF usage (39.7%) up 12.4 points
Graham Ashcraft's SI usage (33.3%) up 14.0 points
Huascar Brazoban's FC usage (41.2%) up 13.1 points
Jesus Luzardo's SI usage (33.7%) up 14.3 points
Jesus Luzardo's CH usage (30.4%) up 11.4 points
Kyle Muller's CU usage (21.9%) up 12.4 points
Logan Webb's CH usage (44.4%) up 12.7 points
Lucas Giolito's FF usage (59.8%) up 13.2 points
Matt Manning's SI usage (23.3%) up 14.7 points
Reid Detmers's SL usage (33.3%) up 11.1 points
Spenser Watkins's FF usage (54.7%) up 12.7 points
Tommy Nance's FF usage (32.1%) up 21.4 points
Tommy Nance's SL usage (26.8%) up 16.8 points
Tyler Beede's CU usage (23.0%) up 12.8 points
Zac Gallen's FF usage (58.3%) up 10.8 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Drew Smyly - 90 TBF, 39.5% CSW%
Nick Lodolo - 93 TBF, 38.1% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 103 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Reid Detmers - 94 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 103 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Brady Singer - 80 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Adam Wainwright - 107 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Alex Cobb - 98 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Michael Kopech - 87 TBF, 32.0% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 97 TBF, 31.8% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Reid Detmers - 94 TBF, 36.2% K%
Corbin Burnes - 97 TBF, 33.0% K%
Alex Cobb - 98 TBF, 32.7% K%
Carlos Rodon - 92 TBF, 32.6% K%
Yu Darvish - 103 TBF, 31.1% K%
Zack Wheeler - 77 TBF, 29.9% K%
Nestor Cortes - 87 TBF, 29.9% K%
George Kirby - 83 TBF, 28.9% K%
Nick Lodolo - 93 TBF, 28.0% K%
Shane Bieber - 103 TBF, 27.2% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Carlos Rodon - 92 TBF, 30.4% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 103 TBF, 27.2% K-BB%
Reid Detmers - 94 TBF, 26.6% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 97 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
George Kirby - 83 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Alex Cobb - 98 TBF, 24.5% K-BB%
Shane Bieber - 103 TBF, 23.3% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 88 TBF, 22.7% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 103 TBF, 22.3% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 77 TBF, 22.1% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 110 TBF, 68.9% GB%
Logan Webb - 110 TBF, 66.2% GB%
Chris Bassitt - 87 TBF, 64.1% GB%
Antonio Senzatela - 103 TBF, 63.0% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 92 TBF, 62.5% GB%
Zac Gallen - 91 TBF, 59.3% GB%
Dane Dunning - 90 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Kyle Wright - 78 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 110 TBF, 55.3% GB%
Merrill Kelly - 100 TBF, 55.2% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Braxton Garrett - 69 TBF, 31.9 K%, 4.3 BB%, 46.3% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 97 TBF, 33.0 K%, 7.2 BB%, 54.5% GB%
George Kirby - 83 TBF, 28.9 K%, 3.6 BB%, 51.9% GB%
Shane Bieber - 103 TBF, 27.2 K%, 3.9 BB%, 52.1% GB%
Yu Darvish - 103 TBF, 31.1 K%, 3.9 BB%, 47.8% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 77 TBF, 29.9 K%, 7.8 BB%, 45.8% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Adam Wainwright - +2.7% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Triston McKenzie - +2.0% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Carlos Carrasco - +2.7% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Gerrit Cole - +2.1% CSW%, -4.4 BB%
Kris Bubic - +2.1% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Joe Ryan - +2.7% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Braxton Garrett - +3.5% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Justin Steele - +2.5% CSW%, -6.7 BB%
Jacob deGrom - +2.7% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Erasmo Ramirez - +3.9% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Carlos Correa (MIN) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Emmanuel Rivera (ARI) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Jesus Aguilar (MIA) 8 PA, 16 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Matt Olson (ATL) 9 PA, 21 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Michael Massey (KC) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) 4 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Carlos Correa - 5.0 PA - 79.0 JA Points
2. Max Muncy - 5.0 PA - 54.0 JA Points
3. Emmanuel Rivera - 5.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
4. Jesus Aguilar - 4.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
5. Manny Machado - 5.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
6. Juan Soto - 5.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
7. Taylor Walls - 4.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
8. Joey Meneses - 4.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
9. Will Smith - 5.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
10. Andres Gimenez - 4.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 398.0 PA - 148.04 JA Points
2. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 480.0 PA - 147.75 JA Points
3. Juan Soto (SD) - 478.0 PA - 136.49 JA Points
4. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 495.0 PA - 113.86 JA Points
5. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 374.0 PA - 110.7 JA Points
6. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 464.0 PA - 110.17 JA Points
7. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 271.0 PA - 104.21 JA Points
8. Will Smith (LAD) - 405.0 PA - 103.51 JA Points
9. D.J. LeMahieu (NYY) - 457.0 PA - 99.34 JA Points
10. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 418.0 PA - 98.66 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 111.0mph - nan
A.J. Pollock (CWS) - 110.8mph - home_run
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 110.7mph - single
Ketel Marte (ARI) - 110.7mph - single
Brian Anderson (MIA) - 110.7mph - single
Ryan O'Hearn (KC) - 110.5mph - double
Elvis Andrus (OAK) - 109.9mph - double
Victor Robles (WSH) - 109.7mph - single
Jacob Stallings (MIA) - 109.5mph - field_out
Trey Mancini (HOU) - 109.1mph - double
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 79 PA, 41 BIP, 14 Brls, 34.1 Brl%
Austin Riley - 83 PA, 57 BIP, 15 Brls, 26.3 Brl%
Max Muncy - 66 PA, 42 BIP, 11 Brls, 26.2 Brl%
Paul DeJong - 52 PA, 31 BIP, 8 Brls, 25.8 Brl%
Byron Buxton - 49 PA, 24 BIP, 6 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Matt Chapman - 65 PA, 33 BIP, 8 Brls, 24.2 Brl%
Bobby Dalbec - 51 PA, 30 BIP, 7 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 74 PA, 45 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Nolan Gorman - 52 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Anthony Rizzo - 53 PA, 34 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.6 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 79 PA, 0.576 xwOBA
Anthony Rizzo - 53 PA, 0.457 xwOBA
Paul DeJong - 52 PA, 0.446 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 81 PA, 0.439 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 74 PA, 0.439 xwOBA
Matt Chapman - 65 PA, 0.431 xwOBA
Byron Buxton - 49 PA, 0.426 xwOBA
Max Muncy - 66 PA, 0.421 xwOBA
Francisco Lindor - 82 PA, 0.418 xwOBA
Paul Goldschmidt - 64 PA, 0.417 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Bryson Stott - 71 PA, 128 Swings, 93.0 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 67 PA, 132 Swings, 92.4 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 78 PA, 145 Swings, 92.4 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 87 PA, 132 Swings, 90.9 Cont%
Yuli Gurriel - 74 PA, 116 Swings, 90.5 Cont%
Jose Iglesias - 79 PA, 148 Swings, 89.9 Cont%
Luis Guillorme - 56 PA, 92 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
Myles Straw - 67 PA, 99 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 56 PA, 99 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 68 PA, 110 Swings, 87.3 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
A.J. Pollock - 62 PA, 11.3 K%, 14.9 Brl%
Anthony Rizzo - 53 PA, 17.0 K%, 20.6 Brl%
Anthony Santander - 78 PA, 14.1 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Eloy Jimenez - 75 PA, 20.0 K%, 14.3 Brl%
J.T. Realmuto - 62 PA, 17.7 K%, 17.4 Brl%
Lars Nootbaar - 65 PA, 12.3 K%, 15.2 Brl%
Nolan Arenado - 63 PA, 14.3 K%, 14.9 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 76 PA, 17.1 K%, 16.1 Brl%
Seth Brown - 48 PA, 18.8 K%, 18.8 Brl%
Teoscar Hernandez - 64 PA, 18.8 K%, 14.9 Brl%
Tyler Naquin - 47 PA, 12.8 K%, 15.0 Brl%
Will Smith - 75 PA, 17.3 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
MJ Melendez - +8.8% Contact%, +5.3 mph exit velo, -11.9 Chase%
Anthony Santander - +10.0% Contact%, +5.0 mph exit velo, -10.3 Chase%
Max Muncy - +14.8% Contact%, +7.4 mph exit velo, -6.4 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Juan Soto - 0.511 xwOBA, 15.8% Brl%, 85.9% Contact%, 11.9% Chase%, 6.9% K%
Lars Nootbaar - 0.406 xwOBA, 10.8% Brl%, 77.0% Contact%, 20.6% Chase%, 9.8% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Victor Reyes - 36.6% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.956 Cold Rating
Josh Bell - 33.0% Whiff%, 75.8% Weak%, 0.927 Cold Rating
Marcell Ozuna - 34.4% Whiff%, 73.3% Weak%, 0.924 Cold Rating
Max Stassi - 32.4% Whiff%, 76.9% Weak%, 0.923 Cold Rating
William Contreras - 40.0% Whiff%, 70.0% Weak%, 0.918 Cold Rating
Jarren Duran - 33.8% Whiff%, 73.1% Weak%, 0.915 Cold Rating
Rafael Devers - 30.0% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.873 Cold Rating
Seth Brown - 32.4% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.866 Cold Rating
Ezequiel Duran - 34.0% Whiff%, 67.9% Weak%, 0.858 Cold Rating
Eddie Rosario - 34.9% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.848 Cold Rating
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