MLB Daily Notes: Monday, June 13
Introduction / Explanations for New Readers
I am back in the saddle in my basement, and it feels amazing. Let’s talk about some baseball stuff as we open up a new week for fantasy.
ICYMI: I wrote a script on Friday to check which pitchers are about to face the Tigers or Athletics, that tweets out every morning while I’m running the rest of the scripts. It’s just such a good idea this year to stream against these two teams because they have been just insanely pitiful.
I mean look at the gap between these two teams and the other bad offenses:
So check that out tweet every morning to find some pitchers to stream for the next week.
Matt Carpenter hit two dingers yesterday and is now hitting .333/.467/1.125 this year with six homers in just 30 plate appearances. I don’t know what the hell to do about that. He’s also walking 17% of the time and putting up a strong 78% contact rate while only striking out 23% of the time.
If he were some rookie, we’d obviously be recommending you pick him up immediately, but he’s not - he is a 36-year-old who couldn’t even find a Major League job before a few weeks ago. I suppose there are some leagues out there where he could be useful if he keeps leading off and hitting homers for the Bombers - but it’s nothing to do in shallow leagues for now.
I have been checking the Last 3 Weeks Hit Stats sheet more often recently. I cooked that one up in the pre-season and then kind of forgot about it - but it’s a pretty handy sheet. Checking the top 10 in barrel rate right now:
Bethancourt and Burger standing out there, and everybody’s favorite DraftKings punt catcher Martin Maldonado has lucked into some hard contact as well. Tons more stats in that file, but it’s only for paid subs.
I’m considering adding on notes for the NFL season. The NFL has a super in-depth play-by-play dataset as well, so we can really cook up some fun stuff. I just haven’t had the will to really get into the NFL side of things, but now I’m realizing that I’m probably leaving quite a bit of exposure & cash on the table there given how many more people play fantasy football.
I am thinking about “hiring” someone else to help me with that, if I decide to go that route I’ll lay it all out in a post - but if that sounds super interesting to you right away - reach out to me. It would be pretty dope to find someone else with a bit of Python and/or Tableau experience to help me put a bunch of stuff together over the next couple of months - but I realize not many people out there have those skills. Anyways, DM me if you’re interested or have any other ideas.
Great night to play some DFS, so I think we’ll have another DraftKings analysis & picks article come out this afternoon for paid subs.
If you play DFS, and if you play fantasy football as well - I think it’s a great time to dive in and become a paid sub - because the content isn’t going to stop. Big shoutout to everyone who has already subscribed, we went over 300 subs yesterday. I was hoping for like 100 when I started this year, so we’ve already tripled that in less than half a season - pretty exciting!
Alright here we go!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Patrick Sandoval (LAA): 23.0 SwStr%, 40.2 CSW%
2. Jon Gray (TEX): 18.6 SwStr%, 39.2 CSW%
3. Taijuan Walker (NYM): 18.6 SwStr%, 38.1 CSW%
4. Julio Urias (LAD): 23.0 SwStr%, 36.8 CSW%
5. Carlos Rodon (SF): 16.3 SwStr%, 35.7 CSW%
6. Blake Snell (SD): 16.0 SwStr%, 35.1 CSW%
7. Tarik Skubal (DET): 11.8 SwStr%, 31.6 CSW%
8. Justin Verlander (HOU): 12.9 SwStr%, 31.2 CSW%
9. Daniel Norris (CHC): 13.8 SwStr%, 31.0 CSW%
10. Kyle Wright (ATL): 15.2 SwStr%, 29.1 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Jon Gray - 6.0 IP - 85.0 JA Points
2. Taijuan Walker - 5.67 IP - 82.25 JA Points
3. Julio Urias - 6.0 IP - 81.75 JA Points
4. Carlos Rodon - 6.0 IP - 59.25 JA Points
5. Blake Snell - 6.0 IP - 56.75 JA Points
6. Cole Sands - 4.33 IP - 55.75 JA Points
7. Patrick Sandoval - 6.0 IP - 55.5 JA Points
8. Robbie Ray - 7.0 IP - 51.0 JA Points
9. Jameson Taillon - 5.0 IP - 44.5 JA Points
10. German Marquez - 6.67 IP - 43.5 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 12 GS - 55.49 JA Points
2. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 12 GS - 53.65 JA Points
3. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 3 GS - 50.92 JA Points
4. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 12 GS - 50.7 JA Points
5. Freddy Peralta (MIL) - 8 GS - 49.99 JA Points
6. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 12 GS - 47.11 JA Points
7. Aaron Ashby (MIL) - 7 GS - 46.62 JA Points
8. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 8 GS - 46.36 JA Points
9. Luis Severino (NYY) - 11 GS - 45.82 JA Points
10. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 10 GS - 45.69 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Cal Quantrill's FC velo (34 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 89.4
Jeffrey Springs's SL velo (35 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 86.1
Jason Alexander's SL velo (17 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 81.6
Cole Irvin's FF velo (27 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 89.7
Kutter Crawford's FF velo (31 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 94.3
Patrick Sandoval's CU velo (18 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 78.7
Ranger Suarez's SI velo (40 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 91.1
Ranger Suarez's FF velo (21 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 92.0
Cole Irvin's CU velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 76.5
Johnny Cueto's FF velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 89.9
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Carlos Rodon's SL usage (42.9%) up 15.1 points
Daniel Norris's CH usage (43.1%) up 11.9 points
German Marquez's SI usage (40.2%) up 23.8 points
Jason Alexander's CH usage (25.3%) up 13.3 points
Jeffrey Springs's SL usage (37.2%) up 17.6 points
Jon Gray's SL usage (46.1%) up 13.0 points
Kutter Crawford's FC usage (44.6%) up 23.3 points
Patrick Sandoval's CU usage (20.7%) up 10.6 points
Robbie Ray's SI usage (48.4%) up 46.1 points
Ross Stripling's CH usage (35.5%) up 10.5 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Ashby - 101 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Sandy Alcantara - 84 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 92 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 99 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 96 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 92 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 95 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Jon Gray - 100 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Zack Wheeler - 98 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 78 TBF, 32.0% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Hunter Greene - 82 TBF, 35.4% K%
Zack Wheeler - 98 TBF, 34.7% K%
Gerrit Cole - 95 TBF, 34.7% K%
Shane McClanahan - 99 TBF, 33.3% K%
Sandy Alcantara - 84 TBF, 33.3% K%
Corbin Burnes - 92 TBF, 32.6% K%
Charlie Morton - 92 TBF, 31.5% K%
Jon Gray - 100 TBF, 30.0% K%
Carlos Carrasco - 97 TBF, 29.9% K%
Tyler Mahle - 101 TBF, 29.7% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Sandy Alcantara - 84 TBF, 31.0% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 98 TBF, 30.6% K-BB%
Hunter Greene - 82 TBF, 30.5% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 99 TBF, 30.3% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 95 TBF, 29.5% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 83 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
George Kirby - 92 TBF, 23.9% K-BB%
Charlie Morton - 92 TBF, 23.9% K-BB%
Jose Berrios - 94 TBF, 23.4% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 92 TBF, 22.8% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 109 TBF, 68.4% GB%
Aaron Ashby - 101 TBF, 65.7% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 84 TBF, 64.2% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 90 TBF, 58.7% GB%
Max Fried - 101 TBF, 58.1% GB%
Carlos Carrasco - 97 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 98 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 95 TBF, 56.2% GB%
Dylan Cease - 89 TBF, 55.8% GB%
Logan Webb - 95 TBF, 55.4% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Ashby - 101 TBF, 27.7 K%, 5.9 BB%, 65.7% GB%
Carlos Carrasco - 97 TBF, 29.9 K%, 7.2 BB%, 57.6% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 95 TBF, 34.7 K%, 5.3 BB%, 45.6% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 84 TBF, 33.3 K%, 2.4 BB%, 64.2% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 98 TBF, 34.7 K%, 4.1 BB%, 56.9% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Tarik Skubal - +3.8% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Sandy Alcantara - +5.6% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Zach Davies - +3.1% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Shane Bieber - +2.8% CSW%, -4.5 BB%
Corey Kluber - +2.9% CSW%, -5.9 BB%
Nick Nelson - +5.2% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Adam Duvall (ATL) 3 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) 3 PA, 3 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Cavan Biggio (TOR) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Matt Carpenter (NYY) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Mike Yastrzemski (SF) 4 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Will Smith (LAD) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
William Contreras (ATL) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Matt Carpenter - 5.0 PA - 93.0 JA Points
2. Bobby Witt Jr. - 5.0 PA - 61.0 JA Points
3. Will Smith - 4.0 PA - 60.0 JA Points
4. Eli White - 5.0 PA - 57.0 JA Points
5. Kyle Higashioka - 5.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
6. Adam Duvall - 3.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
7. Alex Bregman - 5.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
8. Ian Happ - 4.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
9. Adolis Garcia - 6.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
10. Giancarlo Stanton - 6.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 227.0 PA - 143.61 JA Points
2. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 239.0 PA - 137.41 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 252.0 PA - 134.44 JA Points
4. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 158.0 PA - 127.85 JA Points
5. Juan Soto (WSH) - 273.0 PA - 115.31 JA Points
6. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 181.0 PA - 114.92 JA Points
7. Trey Mancini (BAL) - 245.0 PA - 108.9 JA Points
8. Will Smith (LAD) - 192.0 PA - 105.62 JA Points
9. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 254.0 PA - 102.52 JA Points
10. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 210.0 PA - 101.33 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 116.8mph - double
William Contreras (ATL) - 113.7mph - home_run
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 112.5mph - home_run
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 111.6mph - single
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) - 111.1mph - single
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 110.9mph - field_out
Javier Baez (DET) - 110.4mph - field_out
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) - 110.2mph - home_run
Luke Voit (SD) - 109.9mph - home_run
Yandy Diaz (TB) - 109.8mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 85 PA, 58 BIP, 15 Brls, 25.9 Brl%
Jazz Chisholm - 55 PA, 31 BIP, 8 Brls, 25.8 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 73 PA, 39 BIP, 10 Brls, 25.6 Brl%
Jake Burger - 64 PA, 44 BIP, 11 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 86 PA, 46 BIP, 11 Brls, 23.9 Brl%
Austin Riley - 87 PA, 54 BIP, 12 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 75 PA, 52 BIP, 11 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Teoscar Hernandez - 70 PA, 50 BIP, 9 Brls, 18.0 Brl%
Ramon Urias - 55 PA, 39 BIP, 7 Brls, 17.9 Brl%
Jack Suwinski - 59 PA, 34 BIP, 6 Brls, 17.6 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 53 PA, 83 Swings, 95.2 Cont%
Jose Iglesias - 68 PA, 125 Swings, 93.6 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 77 PA, 141 Swings, 92.2 Cont%
Luis Guillorme - 55 PA, 88 Swings, 90.9 Cont%
Myles Straw - 77 PA, 126 Swings, 90.5 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 79 PA, 121 Swings, 90.1 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 85 PA, 148 Swings, 89.9 Cont%
Adam Frazier - 78 PA, 138 Swings, 89.9 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 58 PA, 99 Swings, 89.9 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 73 PA, 107 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Alejandro Kirk - 61 PA, 11.5 K%, 15.2 Brl%
Bryce Harper - 79 PA, 15.2 K%, 16.1 Brl%
Joey Votto - 78 PA, 19.2 K%, 16.3 Brl%
Nelson Cruz - 74 PA, 17.6 K%, 15.7 Brl%
Nick Gordon - 62 PA, 19.4 K%, 15.2 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 75 PA, 20.0 K%, 21.2 Brl%
Teoscar Hernandez - 70 PA, 20.0 K%, 18.0 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 78 PA, 17.9 K%, 15.8 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 78 PA, 11.5 K%, 15.3 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Jurickson Profar - +3.2% Contact%, +4.6 mph exit velo, -5.7 Chase%
Alex Bregman - +5.4% Contact%, +3.5 mph exit velo, -3.5 Chase%
Brendan Rodgers - +3.7% Contact%, +3.4 mph exit velo, -9.5 Chase%
Taylor Walls - +14.8% Contact%, +4.6 mph exit velo, -9.2 Chase%
Brandon Drury - +7.7% Contact%, +3.9 mph exit velo, -5.5 Chase%
Carlos Santana - +9.7% Contact%, +3.9 mph exit velo, -9.1 Chase%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Michael Chavis - 36.5% Whiff%, 74.1% Weak%, 0.94 Cold Rating
Javier Baez - 44.2% Whiff%, 70.4% Weak%, 0.924 Cold Rating
Daulton Varsho - 31.8% Whiff%, 74.2% Weak%, 0.888 Cold Rating
Julio Rodriguez - 34.7% Whiff%, 71.0% Weak%, 0.881 Cold Rating
Yasmani Grandal - 28.8% Whiff%, 78.9% Weak%, 0.858 Cold Rating
Jeff McNeil - 31.8% Whiff%, 70.6% Weak%, 0.848 Cold Rating
Nelson Cruz - 37.0% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.847 Cold Rating
Jonathan Schoop - 36.2% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.834 Cold Rating
Kevin Kiermaier - 29.3% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.823 Cold Rating
Jeremy Pena - 36.3% Whiff%, 64.5% Weak%, 0.806 Cold Rating
Now to the paid stuff. For $5/month or $40/year you get access to a bunch of extra goodies, including, but not limited to
Daily Projections (with DraftKings salaries & scores) Excel & a Tableau Dashboard)
Strikeout Prop Model Comparisons. Compares my K projection with FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook betting lines
My personal DraftKings player pools and cash lineups (not every day but when I have time!)
Daily hitter matchup ratings
Plate Discipline leaderboard
More Magic Formula Qualifiers
Pitch Mix and Velo Changes Tracker
Full daily and season-long pitcher and hitter data reports
Full access to my daily-updated algorithmic hitter and pitcher rankings
Offseason reviews & previews of every single fantasy-relevant player
More stuff added throughout the year as ideas come to me
If you’re seeing this, you’ve become a paid sub! Thanks so much for that! If you still don’t have access to any of the below links, please DM me on Twitter or email me and I’ll get you added ASAP.
Premium Features - SAMPLES
Here are some samples of what you get with the paid subscription, for anybody on the fence!
SAMPLE K Prop Comparison Sheet
SAMPLE JA Algorithm - Season Hitter Ranks
SAMPLE DraftKings Hitter Scoring Analysis
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