MLB Daily Notes: Sunday, May 29
Greetings from New Jersey! Out here in Ocean City with the family, and the kids are waking us up even earlier than normal. Sorry about the messy notes yesterday, we left well before the baseball savant data came out so I had to run all the scripts with my phone while driving and then copy-paste everything from my laptop at a rest stop.
I’m settled in here now and the mornings should be free so we can really grind out some notes in the upcoming days!
The pitcher of the day yesterday was Sandy Alcantara, who absolutely murked the previous high for JA points in a single start.
Sandy Alcantara 5/28 - 129 JA Points
Clayton Kershaw 4/13 - 110 JA Points
Shane McClanahan 5/11 - 108 JA Points
Shohei Ohtani 5/5 - 107 JA Points
Corbin Burnes 4/25 - 107 JA Points
He recorded 27 whiffs in the start going for 14 strikeouts and no walks. There have only been six individual pitcher starts this year where 25+ whiffs were recorded, and two of those now are Alcantara’s last two outings - both coming against the Braves.
Over these last two starts, he has used his slider a bit more, which explains a bit of the increased whiff rate.
Just as big a story, maybe, is the Braves crazy strikeout rate this year. As a team they have struck out 26.9% of the time (league average way down at 22.4%). The Diamondbacks are second-worst but they are a point and a half below Atlanta at 25.2%.
Acuna, Duvall, Swanson, Contreras, and Riley are all regulars well above a 25% strikeout rate.
The Braves have turned into a pretty good matchup for opposing pitchers this season. Wild stuff!
Brady Singer is also popping a bit, entering the magic formula qualifiers. Over the last three weeks, he has a 28% strikeout rate with a 4% BB% - great stuff. The whiffs have only been really high on one occasion, so I don’t really believe the high strikeout rate, but anything above 24% for him should work with the command he possesses. Someone to stream or add in deep leagues.
The hitter to highlight is St. Louis rookie Nolan Gorman. He has hit .360/.429/.600 through 28 plate appearances, hitting his first homer of the season last night. He has a strong 11.8% barrel rate with a 53% hard hit rate, but the strikeouts have been predictably high at 29%, although it does come with a nice walk rate at 11%. That’s giving away a lot of plate appearances still, but it’s a plus to see that he’s not putting up that strikeout rate just wildly swinging at bad pitches.
The contact rate (64%) gives no credence to an improving strikeout rate, and the BABIP is at a ridiculous .500 (the way I calculate it, at least). I certainly don’t think this guy is anything but a .250 hitter - but he’s not completely lost at the big league level at least. He should provide some pop and counting stats in that effective Cardinals lineup.
K Props
Not sure what’s gotten into the strikeout model, but we have Dylan Cease for 9.4 strikeouts against the Cubs today. That’s a really wild mark, so it will be interesting to see what happens - let’s see if the model is on to something. The Cubs can whiff, and Cease has been pretty great this year, but it’s hard to be overly confident in a strikeout prop set at 7.5. Lots of things have to go right to strike out eight hitters no matter who you are.
I’m pretty interested in Triston McKenzie over 5.5 as well against the Tigers. He’s been right around 4-6 strikeouts all season long, but the pitch count has been over 90 the last three times out and the Tigers are a great matchup here.
Here are the notes!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Tony Gonsolin (LAD): 10.9 SwStr%, 37.0 CSW%
2. Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 25.0 SwStr%, 37.0 CSW%
3. Brady Singer (KC): 8.9 SwStr%, 35.6 CSW%
4. Joe Musgrove (SD): 13.5 SwStr%, 34.4 CSW%
5. Corey Kluber (TB): 12.5 SwStr%, 33.8 CSW%
6. Gerrit Cole (NYY): 19.0 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
7. Nathan Eovaldi (BOS): 14.8 SwStr%, 32.4 CSW%
8. Alex Wood (SF): 16.7 SwStr%, 32.3 CSW%
9. Shane Bieber (CLE): 11.7 SwStr%, 31.9 CSW%
10. Merrill Kelly (ARI): 8.8 SwStr%, 31.9 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Sandy Alcantara - 7.67 IP - 128.75 JA Points
2. Gerrit Cole - 6.0 IP - 68.5 JA Points
3. Tony Gonsolin - 6.0 IP - 60.75 JA Points
4. Nathan Eovaldi - 9.0 IP - 60.0 JA Points
5. Shane Bieber - 8.0 IP - 57.75 JA Points
6. Corey Kluber - 6.0 IP - 56.25 JA Points
7. Alex Wood - 5.67 IP - 50.25 JA Points
8. Logan Gilbert - 7.0 IP - 50.0 JA Points
9. Joe Musgrove - 6.0 IP - 49.75 JA Points
10. Chad Kuhl - 6.33 IP - 45.75 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 9.0 GS - 56.95 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 9.0 GS - 53.36 JA Points
3. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 9.0 GS - 52.37 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 8.0 GS - 51.27 JA Points
5. Kevin Gausman (TOR) - 9.0 GS - 50.41 JA Points
6. Freddy Peralta (MIL) - 8.0 GS - 49.99 JA Points
7. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 10.0 GS - 48.25 JA Points
8. Lucas Giolito (CWS) - 7.0 GS - 48.24 JA Points
9. Alex Cobb (SF) - 7.0 GS - 47.45 JA Points
10. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 8.0 GS - 46.36 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Vladimir Gutierrez's CH velo (11 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 85.0
Yusei Kikuchi's SL velo (28 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 89.3
Vladimir Gutierrez's CU velo (13 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 80.3
Merrill Kelly's CU velo (23 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 83.8
Vladimir Gutierrez's FF velo (40 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 94.5
Merrill Kelly's FC velo (21 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 92.7
Merrill Kelly's CH velo (15 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 89.8
Chad Kuhl's SL velo (39 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 85.0
Aaron Sanchez's FF velo (23 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 90.5
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Sanchez's FF usage (30.7%) up 14.3 points
Alex Wood's SL usage (42.7%) up 12.0 points
Ashton Goudeau's FF usage (68.8%) up 16.7 points
Brady Singer's SI usage (61.1%) up 15.7 points
Chris Archer's CH usage (20.5%) up 11.3 points
Joe Musgrove's CU usage (29.2%) up 12.3 points
Joe Musgrove's FC usage (27.1%) up 11.9 points
Jose Urquidy's CU usage (20.4%) up 11.6 points
Matthew Liberatore's FF usage (30.1%) up 10.8 points
Merrill Kelly's CU usage (25.3%) up 12.4 points
Taijuan Walker's FS usage (35.2%) up 10.1 points
Taylor Hearn's SI usage (34.8%) up 17.0 points
Taylor Hearn's CH usage (20.7%) up 11.2 points
Zach Logue's CU usage (23.2%) up 10.5 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Gerrit Cole - 134 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 106 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 86 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Nathan Eovaldi - 98 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Tony Gonsolin - 84 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Robbie Ray - 98 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Dane Dunning - 103 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Sandy Alcantara - 117 TBF, 32.2% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 92 TBF, 31.4% CSW%
Kyle Wright - 94 TBF, 31.1% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Robbie Ray - 98 TBF, 37.8% K%
Frankie Montas - 84 TBF, 34.5% K%
Gerrit Cole - 134 TBF, 33.6% K%
Aaron Nola - 106 TBF, 31.1% K%
Tony Gonsolin - 84 TBF, 31.0% K%
Kyle Bradish - 82 TBF, 29.3% K%
Nestor Cortes - 105 TBF, 28.6% K%
Tarik Skubal - 92 TBF, 28.3% K%
Yusei Kikuchi - 87 TBF, 27.6% K%
Sandy Alcantara - 117 TBF, 27.4% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Gerrit Cole - 134 TBF, 29.9% K-BB%
Robbie Ray - 98 TBF, 29.6% K-BB%
Frankie Montas - 84 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 106 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
Tyler Anderson - 83 TBF, 24.1% K-BB%
Nestor Cortes - 105 TBF, 23.8% K-BB%
Tony Gonsolin - 84 TBF, 22.6% K-BB%
Sandy Alcantara - 117 TBF, 22.2% K-BB%
Kyle Bradish - 82 TBF, 22.0% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 92 TBF, 21.7% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Patrick Sandoval - 81 TBF, 71.4% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 85 TBF, 60.6% GB%
Martin Perez - 109 TBF, 58.8% GB%
Framber Valdez - 88 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Walker Buehler - 99 TBF, 57.9% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 117 TBF, 57.9% GB%
Joan Adon - 91 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Alex Wood - 85 TBF, 55.0% GB%
Adrian Houser - 91 TBF, 54.4% GB%
Luis Castillo - 84 TBF, 54.1% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Brady Singer - 73 TBF, 27.4 K%, 4.1 BB%, 52.0% GB%
Frankie Montas - 84 TBF, 34.5 K%, 6.0 BB%, 54.0% GB%
Freddy Peralta - 64 TBF, 31.2 K%, 4.7 BB%, 46.2% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 117 TBF, 27.4 K%, 5.1 BB%, 57.9% GB%
Sonny Gray - 71 TBF, 32.4 K%, 7.0 BB%, 48.8% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 92 TBF, 28.3 K%, 6.5 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 73 TBF, 35.6 K%, 1.4 BB%, 45.7% GB%
Multiple Barrels
Eric Hosmer (SD) 5 PA, 17 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Juan Soto (WSH) 9 PA, 13 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Rougned Odor (BAL) 8 PA, 15 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Nolan Gorman - 4.0 PA - 70.0 JA Points
2. Trevor Larnach - 4.0 PA - 64.0 JA Points
3. Victor Robles - 5.0 PA - 54.0 JA Points
4. Evan Longoria - 4.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
5. Marcus Semien - 6.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
6. Corey Seager - 5.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
7. Victor Caratini - 4.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
8. Kole Calhoun - 6.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
9. Nick Castellanos - 4.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
10. Miguel Rojas - 4.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 184.0 PA - 148.04 JA Points
2. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 137.0 PA - 146.86 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 193.0 PA - 126.63 JA Points
4. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 203.0 PA - 125.91 JA Points
5. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 169.0 PA - 117.16 JA Points
6. Juan Soto (WSH) - 210.0 PA - 116.95 JA Points
7. Mike Trout (LAA) - 178.0 PA - 116.63 JA Points
8. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 194.0 PA - 113.61 JA Points
9. Joc Pederson (SF) - 125.0 PA - 109.44 JA Points
10. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 153.0 PA - 104.84 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 114.2mph - double
Christian Yelich (MIL) - 112.5mph - nan
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) - 111.6mph - double
Christian Bethancourt (OAK) - 111.3mph - single
Trey Mancini (BAL) - 110.8mph - field_error
Nolan Gorman (STL) - 110.6mph - home_run
Franchy Cordero (BOS) - 110.5mph - single
Bobby Dalbec (BOS) - 110.4mph - single
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 110.3mph - field_out
Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 110.1mph - triple
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Giancarlo Stanton - 66 PA, 42 BIP, 12 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 79 PA, 52 BIP, 12 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 86 PA, 60 BIP, 13 Brls, 21.7 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 56 PA, 37 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 91 PA, 61 BIP, 13 Brls, 21.3 Brl%
Trevor Story - 81 PA, 49 BIP, 10 Brls, 20.4 Brl%
Mike Trout - 77 PA, 45 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Josh Donaldson - 52 PA, 36 BIP, 7 Brls, 19.4 Brl%
Jack Suwinski - 62 PA, 36 BIP, 7 Brls, 19.4 Brl%
Kole Calhoun - 80 PA, 52 BIP, 10 Brls, 19.2 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 72 PA, 103 Swings, 92.2 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 66 PA, 133 Swings, 91.7 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 52 PA, 81 Swings, 91.4 Cont%
Michael Brantley - 73 PA, 90 Swings, 91.1 Cont%
Adam Frazier - 82 PA, 144 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 75 PA, 151 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
D.J. LeMahieu - 71 PA, 117 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Wander Franco - 66 PA, 133 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 81 PA, 174 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Myles Straw - 67 PA, 106 Swings, 86.8 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
J.D. Martinez - 80 PA, 20.0 K%, 18.9 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 56 PA, 16.1 K%, 21.6 Brl%
Josh Donaldson - 52 PA, 19.2 K%, 19.4 Brl%
Nelson Cruz - 73 PA, 17.8 K%, 15.7 Brl%
Paul Goldschmidt - 80 PA, 20.0 K%, 15.3 Brl%
Willson Contreras - 63 PA, 17.5 K%, 18.4 Brl%
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