MLB Daily Notes: Thursday, August 18
Introduction / Explanation For New Readers
I am writing this on my brand new MacBook. I have long been a Mac guy, but for the last few years, I’ve been doing everything on a Windows PC. The keyboard shortcuts are still in my head, but I have to use a little bit of mental effort to call them to my fingertips. On Windows, if you hit control+backspace, it erases the previous word, but when I do that on the Mac it wipes out my whole freaking sentence - so that’s been a little bit frustrating so far - lol.
So now I’ll be going back and forth between Mac and Windows throughout the days, and I have no idea how that’s going to go in terms of keyboard shortcuts and stuff. The scroll bar on a mouse even works in inverse ways between Mac and Windows - so I’ll have to change that on one of these computers.
But anyways, Macs are just so slick, man. Everything is so smooth and clear and good-looking, and the plug-and-play is just incredible. Whatever you plug into this bad boy, it just works.
I have this older projector that I got from my work in 2019, so I’ve used it to watch TV outside in the summers and falls. I wasn’t able to do that this year until now since the old Mac just couldn’t handle it anymore. But last night I watched a little Dodgers/Brewers while my wife was exercising (5 months pregnant and still working out - shout out to her!), and then she came out and we watched the first episode of that Manti T’eo documentary on Netflix.
It was quite beautiful. That documentary is pretty wild - I’m sure most of you remember that story but a lot of interesting stuff in the doc that I don’t remember.
Nick Lodolo had his best outing of the year after I had given up on him in my home league. He went for a 36.7% CSW% and a 16.3% SwStr%. It was his first scoreless outing of more than five innings this year, and it came against a tough Phillies lineup at home.
Fo the year his arsenal breakdown looks like this:
He gets a bunch of swinging strikes on the curveball, and a good amount on the sinker as well since the league average there is something like 6%.
The problem is the walks. He has walked at least two batters in his last six starts, and has a 10.4% BB% on the year. That makes him pretty risky start-to-start, but the upside is huge. If he can bring that walk rate down to 8% or so, he is going to be a very, very good pitcher and I would really like to have this guy in keeper/dynasty leagues.
Ross Stripling was also very good as he returned from a brief IL stint. He took a perfect game into the sixth inning and put up some really solid numbers with his 72 pitches. He has been quite effective since joining the rotation, and he showed no signs of lingering injury yesterday. The K% is low at 21%, but it comes with a really low 4% BB% - so that kinda works.
Tony Gonsolin did it again, throwing seven scoreless against the Brewers. He actually had a good strikeout total (8) in this one, but he continues to put up elite ERA and WHIP despite a mediocre K%-BB% of 17.3%.
His xwOBA against is really good at .266, but it’s still not even top 10 in the league among pitchers with 15+ GS.
Lowest xwOBA against, 15+ GS
McClanahan .248
Javier .249
Kershaw .249
Scherzer .251
Burnes .251
Nola .256
Cease .256
Alcantara .256
Urias .258
Kirby .258
Cortes .259
Rodon .259
Ohtani .260
Fried .261
Verlander .263
Gonsolin .266
I would rather have a pitcher with a good K-BB and a bad xwOBA rather than the reverse, but it’s becoming very hard to argue with the results Gonsolin is getting.
I guess there are five ways to be a good pitcher:
Stuff
Command
Pitch Mix
Deception
Luck
Pitch mix and deception kind of go together. The best pitchers have all five of these things, but if you have two of them you’ll probably do fine. Gonsolin I think has command, and must have deception, and he certainly has some luck. There’s nothing to do here at this point rather than just continue to start the guy every day.
Two seemingly bad SPs had good starts in tough matchups yesterday, which I’ll admit it’s pretty freaking annoying. If you’re Adam Oller going up against the Rangers and I stack the Rangers on DraftKings, you’re just supposed to get thrashed. I mean c’mon man.
Oller vs. TEX: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 4 K, 1 BB
Voth vs. TOR: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 K, 1 BB
Here are their numbers for the year
I don’t see Oller as actually being good, I think he was just lucky yesterday. I do thing Voth probably has some of the control and deception that we talked about above, I certainly don’t want to start that guy in fantasy but maybe we shouldn’t play a ton of hitters against him in DFS.
So who are the “gas cans” of 2022? That’s what we need to know, and now!
Let’s see which pitchers have
Low K%
High xwOBA against
I would include high BB% in there, but for DFS purposes we don’t even really like that. I would rather have someone throw a really bad strike to my hitter than to walk him twice.
So here is a list. I looked at pitchers with 10+ GS, a K% below 20%, and then I sorted by xwOBA.
Patrick Corbin: 18.9% K%, .373 xwOBA
Jonathan Heasley: 16.5%, .371 xwOBA
Michael Pineda: 12.8%, .369 xwOBA
Joan Adon: 17.8%, .365 xwOBA
Ryan Feltner: 19.2%, .365 xwOBA
Adam Oller: 13.9%, .364 xwOBA
Kris Bubic: 19.4%, .360 xwOBA
Alex Faedo: 18.5%, .357 xwOBA
Beau Brieske: 15.9%, .356 xwOBA
Bryse Wilson: 15.0%, .354 xwOBA
The pitchers with the worst home run rates:
Pineda 16.4 PA/HR
Minor 17.1 PA/HR
Smeltzer 19.7 PA/HR
Oller 21.0 PA/HR
Heaslsey 21.4 PA/HR
Espino 21.6 PA/HR
Hendricks 23.7 PA/HR
Brieske 24.2 PA/HR
Wilson 24.6 PA/HR
Thompson 24.8 PA/HR
Sean Murphy had the biggest hitter game of the night with three barrels and two homers. He has a .286/.394/.595 line with seven homers, a 16.2% Brl%, and a .403 xwOBA since the All-Star Break.
Interesting names in the hot hitters below, so check that out. Let’s get to the report.
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Corey Kluber (TB): 15.6 SwStr%, 38.9 CSW%
2. Nick Lodolo (CIN): 16.3 SwStr%, 36.7 CSW%
3. Ross Stripling (TOR): 18.1 SwStr%, 34.7 CSW%
4. Carlos Rodon (SF): 17.9 SwStr%, 34.0 CSW%
5. Domingo German (NYY): 18.3 SwStr%, 33.8 CSW%
6. Tony Gonsolin (LAD): 12.6 SwStr%, 32.6 CSW%
7. Framber Valdez (HOU): 13.0 SwStr%, 32.0 CSW%
8. Eric Lauer (MIL): 9.5 SwStr%, 31.4 CSW%
9. Rich Hill (BOS): 10.5 SwStr%, 29.8 CSW%
10. Zach Davies (ARI): 8.5 SwStr%, 29.3 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Carlos Rodon - 6.0 IP - 70.75 JA Points
2. Corey Kluber - 6.0 IP - 67.5 JA Points
3. Ross Stripling - 6.33 IP - 65.0 JA Points
4. Tony Gonsolin - 7.0 IP - 64.0 JA Points
5. Ranger Suarez - 7.0 IP - 56.75 JA Points
6. Jordan Montgomery - 5.67 IP - 54.25 JA Points
7. Nick Lodolo - 7.0 IP - 53.5 JA Points
8. George Kirby - 5.67 IP - 49.0 JA Points
9. Drew Smyly - 5.0 IP - 47.25 JA Points
10. Framber Valdez - 7.0 IP - 43.75 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 14 GS - 56.04 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 23 GS - 53.56 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 22 GS - 52.34 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 20 GS - 51.88 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 24 GS - 50.43 JA Points
6. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 24 GS - 48.73 JA Points
7. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 24 GS - 48.6 JA Points
8. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 17 GS - 47.23 JA Points
9. Blake Snell (SD) - 15 GS - 46.74 JA Points
10. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 18 GS - 44.6 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Adam Oller's SL velo (10 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 84.2
Zach Davies's CH velo (21 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 81.3
Drew Smyly's CU velo (47 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 80.1
Zach Davies's SI velo (56 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 91.1
German Marquez's FF velo (28 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 97.3
German Marquez's SL velo (10 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 89.0
Touki Toussaint's SI velo (28 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 93.0
Cole Ragans's FC velo (16 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 88.4
Daniel Norris's FF velo (25 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 89.9
Mike Clevinger's FC velo (18 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 85.8
Ranger Suarez's CU velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 75.3
Ranger Suarez's CH velo (22 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 83.4
Carlos Rodon's FF velo (54 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 93.7
George Kirby's SL velo (17 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 85.7
Eric Lauer's SL velo (22 pitches) DOWN -3.0mph to 84.9
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Adam Oller's FF usage (49.4%) up 16.9 points
Cory Abbott's CH usage (14.5%) up 11.9 points
Daniel Norris's SI usage (16.9%) up 15.5 points
Drew Smyly's SI usage (52.0%) up 20.3 points
Eric Lauer's FC usage (26.7%) up 13.8 points
George Kirby's SI usage (20.2%) up 15.0 points
German Marquez's SI usage (37.9%) up 15.6 points
Jake Odorizzi's FC usage (34.8%) up 15.2 points
Jake Odorizzi's FS usage (28.3%) up 14.3 points
Jordan Montgomery's FF usage (26.4%) up 15.1 points
Ranger Suarez's FC usage (17.9%) up 12.9 points
Roansy Contreras's SL usage (43.3%) up 14.1 points
Zach Davies's SI usage (68.3%) up 16.7 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Drew Smyly - 88 TBF, 38.6% CSW%
Nick Lodolo - 97 TBF, 38.2% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 73 TBF, 36.1% CSW%
Reid Detmers - 74 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Corey Kluber - 103 TBF, 34.8% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 105 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 98 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Brady Singer - 102 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 77 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Shohei Ohtani - 99 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 90 TBF, 37.8% K%
Reid Detmers - 74 TBF, 37.8% K%
Charlie Morton - 73 TBF, 37.0% K%
Justin Steele - 87 TBF, 34.5% K%
Carlos Rodon - 93 TBF, 33.3% K%
Alex Cobb - 95 TBF, 32.6% K%
Robbie Ray - 95 TBF, 31.6% K%
Gerrit Cole - 98 TBF, 31.6% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 99 TBF, 31.3% K%
Sonny Gray - 84 TBF, 29.8% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 90 TBF, 34.4% K-BB%
Charlie Morton - 73 TBF, 32.9% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 93 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%
Justin Steele - 87 TBF, 29.9% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 98 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Reid Detmers - 74 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Lance Lynn - 95 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
George Kirby - 91 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Shohei Ohtani - 99 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
Shane Bieber - 105 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 110 TBF, 74.3% GB%
Zac Gallen - 72 TBF, 67.4% GB%
Antonio Senzatela - 77 TBF, 67.2% GB%
Logan Webb - 83 TBF, 66.1% GB%
Chris Bassitt - 108 TBF, 62.8% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 73 TBF, 59.5% GB%
Shane Bieber - 105 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Kyle Wright - 78 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Alex Cobb - 95 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 77 TBF, 55.9% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Archer - 52 TBF, 32.7 K%, 7.7 BB%, 54.8% GB%
George Kirby - 91 TBF, 29.7 K%, 3.3 BB%, 46.6% GB%
Jeffrey Springs - 84 TBF, 27.4 K%, 4.8 BB%, 45.6% GB%
Jordan Montgomery - 81 TBF, 28.4 K%, 6.2 BB%, 46.2% GB%
Justin Steele - 87 TBF, 34.5 K%, 4.6 BB%, 47.1% GB%
Shane Bieber - 105 TBF, 28.6 K%, 2.9 BB%, 58.3% GB%
Spencer Strider - 59 TBF, 37.3 K%, 6.8 BB%, 48.5% GB%
Yu Darvish - 75 TBF, 28.0 K%, 4.0 BB%, 47.1% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Corey Kluber - +4.3% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Dean Kremer - +2.3% CSW%, -5.4 BB%
Lance Lynn - +2.7% CSW%, -5.1 BB%
Austin Voth - +2.7% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Jose Urquidy - +2.0% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Triston McKenzie - +2.5% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Charlie Morton - +4.8% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Andre Pallante - +2.6% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Spenser Watkins - +2.3% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Spencer Strider - +2.0% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Jacob deGrom - +2.7% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Erasmo Ramirez - +5.4% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Sean Murphy (OAK) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 3 Barrels, 2 HR
Brian Anderson (MIA) 4 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Cal Raleigh (SEA) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Harold Ramirez (TB) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
J.D. Davis (SF) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Josh Bell (SD) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Starling Marte (NYM) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Starling Marte - 5.0 PA - 74.0 JA Points
2. J.D. Davis - 4.0 PA - 65.0 JA Points
3. Sean Murphy - 5.0 PA - 59.0 JA Points
4. Cal Raleigh - 5.0 PA - 57.0 JA Points
5. Alex Verdugo - 5.0 PA - 55.0 JA Points
6. J.D. Martinez - 5.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
7. Jose Miranda - 4.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
8. Jake Cronenworth - 5.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
9. Ha-Seong Kim - 5.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
10. Lane Thomas - 4.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 415.0 PA - 145.45 JA Points
2. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 497.0 PA - 139.56 JA Points
3. Juan Soto (SD) - 497.0 PA - 135.69 JA Points
4. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 513.0 PA - 114.23 JA Points
5. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 386.0 PA - 111.71 JA Points
6. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 476.0 PA - 111.68 JA Points
7. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 271.0 PA - 104.21 JA Points
8. Will Smith (LAD) - 414.0 PA - 102.03 JA Points
9. D.J. LeMahieu (NYY) - 458.0 PA - 99.65 JA Points
10. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 436.0 PA - 99.63 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Yandy Diaz (TB) - 113.7mph - foul
Brett Baty (NYM) - 113.0mph - fielders_choice_out
Sean Murphy (OAK) - 113.0mph - double
Aristides Aquino (CIN) - 112.7mph - foul
Christian Arroyo (BOS) - 112.1mph - single
Ketel Marte (ARI) - 111.9mph - field_out
Anthony Santander (BAL) - 111.3mph - field_out
Oscar Gonzalez (CLE) - 111.3mph - field_out
Bo Bichette (TOR) - 110.7mph - single
Christian Yelich (MIL) - 110.2mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 81 PA, 43 BIP, 12 Brls, 27.9 Brl%
Max Muncy - 71 PA, 44 BIP, 12 Brls, 27.3 Brl%
Paul DeJong - 64 PA, 35 BIP, 9 Brls, 25.7 Brl%
Matt Chapman - 69 PA, 35 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.9 Brl%
Jesse Winker - 63 PA, 37 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Nick Pratto - 66 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 58 PA, 35 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 81 PA, 51 BIP, 10 Brls, 19.6 Brl%
Byron Buxton - 57 PA, 31 BIP, 6 Brls, 19.4 Brl%
Chas McCormick - 47 PA, 26 BIP, 5 Brls, 19.2 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 81 PA, 0.510 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 81 PA, 0.463 xwOBA
Alex Bregman - 79 PA, 0.434 xwOBA
Max Muncy - 71 PA, 0.430 xwOBA
Byron Buxton - 57 PA, 0.424 xwOBA
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 78 PA, 0.415 xwOBA
Michael Massey - 48 PA, 0.412 xwOBA
Nick Gordon - 55 PA, 0.409 xwOBA
Jesse Winker - 63 PA, 0.408 xwOBA
Rhys Hoskins - 83 PA, 0.407 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
J.P. Crawford - 79 PA, 134 Swings, 94.8 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 73 PA, 125 Swings, 94.4 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 90 PA, 134 Swings, 91.0 Cont%
Luis Guillorme - 53 PA, 85 Swings, 90.6 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 57 PA, 93 Swings, 90.3 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 71 PA, 124 Swings, 90.3 Cont%
Jose Iglesias - 76 PA, 146 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Yuli Gurriel - 74 PA, 118 Swings, 89.0 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 74 PA, 124 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 63 PA, 93 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Austin Riley - 85 PA, 20.0 K%, 19.0 Brl%
Christian Walker - 78 PA, 17.9 K%, 17.5 Brl%
Eric Hosmer - 50 PA, 20.0 K%, 14.7 Brl%
Michael Massey - 48 PA, 16.7 K%, 18.9 Brl%
Nick Gordon - 55 PA, 14.5 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Rhys Hoskins - 83 PA, 19.3 K%, 14.5 Brl%
Sean Murphy - 70 PA, 17.1 K%, 17.6 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 78 PA, 12.8 K%, 16.1 Brl%
Will Smith - 72 PA, 16.7 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Max Muncy - +6.6% Contact%, +3.4 mph exit velo, -3.7 Chase%
Paul Goldschmidt - +4.1% Contact%, +4.2 mph exit velo, -7.7 Chase%
Alex Verdugo - +5.4% Contact%, +6.5 mph exit velo, -13.3 Chase%
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - +6.8% Contact%, +6.7 mph exit velo, -14.9 Chase%
Leody Taveras - +7.3% Contact%, +10.1 mph exit velo, -14.9 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
A.J. Pollock - 0.389 xwOBA, 14.6% Brl%, 81.6% Contact%, 24.7% Chase%, 9.8% K%
Alex Verdugo - 0.402 xwOBA, 14.3% Brl%, 81.1% Contact%, 14.6% Chase%, 13.7% K%
Juan Soto - 0.43 xwOBA, 11.6% Brl%, 83.3% Contact%, 15.8% Chase%, 10.8% K%
Paul Goldschmidt - 0.443 xwOBA, 13.2% Brl%, 79.6% Contact%, 21.3% Chase%, 12.7% K%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 0.412 xwOBA, 15.9% Brl%, 81.2% Contact%, 23.1% Chase%, 16.4% K%
Sean Murphy - 0.402 xwOBA, 15.4% Brl%, 78.8% Contact%, 23.8% Chase%, 16.7% K%
Vinnie Pasquantino - 0.439 xwOBA, 13.3% Brl%, 89.7% Contact%, 20.0% Chase%, 5.7% K%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 0.389 xwOBA, 18.4% Brl%, 86.6% Contact%, 24.5% Chase%, 12.1% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Josh Bell - 35.0% Whiff%, 78.9% Weak%, 0.942 Cold Rating
Oneil Cruz - 50.0% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.939 Cold Rating
Aristides Aquino - 37.2% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.912 Cold Rating
Hunter Dozier - 34.6% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.902 Cold Rating
Jonathan Schoop - 34.9% Whiff%, 71.9% Weak%, 0.895 Cold Rating
Max Stassi - 31.0% Whiff%, 83.3% Weak%, 0.891 Cold Rating
Bubba Thompson - 30.2% Whiff%, 85.2% Weak%, 0.873 Cold Rating
Brandon Lowe - 34.9% Whiff%, 69.2% Weak%, 0.856 Cold Rating
Marcell Ozuna - 38.2% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.854 Cold Rating
Eloy Jimenez - 34.5% Whiff%, 68.3% Weak%, 0.839 Cold Rating
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