MLB Daily Notes: Thursday, September 8
Introduction / Explanation For New Readers
We saw 5,051 pitches thrown in baseball last night, the third most of the season (May 17th and May 8th). Those are the only three days of the year with more than 5,000 pitches thrown - so there’s that for a tidbit.
Notable Notes from Yesterday
Aaron Judge walked five times
Isiah Kiner-Falefa stole two bases and drove in five
Kyle Garlick struck out five times
Shohei Ohtani struck out four times and hit one homer
Daulton Varsho hit two homers and had three barrels
Gerrit Cole struck out 14
Jacob deGrom only struck out eight which is ridiculous
It’s a football day, we’ve got week one projections up and Johnny C’s first showdown analysis piece is live. Find all the premium football links below the paywall. Very excited to get the 2022-2023 NFL Dashboard running starting next week (maybe even tomorrow!).
On to the rest of the baseball report:
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 20.9 SwStr%, 38.4 CSW%
2. Gerrit Cole (NYY): 19.5 SwStr%, 38.1 CSW%
3. Spencer Strider (ATL): 18.4 SwStr%, 35.9 CSW%
4. Louie Varland (MIN): 13.8 SwStr%, 35.0 CSW%
5. Alex Cobb (SF): 10.8 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
6. Eric Lauer (MIL): 13.3 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
7. Jacob deGrom (NYM): 17.6 SwStr%, 33.0 CSW%
8. Domingo German (NYY): 13.3 SwStr%, 32.2 CSW%
9. Chris Bassitt (NYM): 14.9 SwStr%, 31.7 CSW%
10. Alek Manoah (TOR): 12.6 SwStr%, 31.6 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Gerrit Cole - 6.67 IP - 91.25 JA Points
2. Clayton Kershaw - 6.0 IP - 76.25 JA Points
3. Chris Bassitt - 7.0 IP - 74.0 JA Points
4. Jacob deGrom - 7.0 IP - 72.25 JA Points
5. Kyle Freeland - 6.0 IP - 66.0 JA Points
6. Spencer Strider - 6.0 IP - 64.75 JA Points
7. Louie Varland - 5.33 IP - 53.25 JA Points
8. Alek Manoah - 8.0 IP - 51.5 JA Points
9. Domingo German - 6.0 IP - 46.25 JA Points
10. Cory Abbott - 4.0 IP - 45.5 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 18.0 GS - 57.41 JA Points
2. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 24.0 GS - 51.93 JA Points
3. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 27.0 GS - 51.21 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 23.0 GS - 50.36 JA Points
5. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 28.0 GS - 48.33 JA Points
6. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 27.0 GS - 48.26 JA Points
7. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 27.0 GS - 48.25 JA Points
8. Blake Snell (SD) - 19.0 GS - 46.77 JA Points
9. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 20.0 GS - 46.76 JA Points
10. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 21.0 GS - 45.19 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Joe Ryan's SL velo (20 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 84.3
Kyle Freeland's CU velo (14 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 82.7
Dean Kremer's FC velo (25 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 89.5
Trevor Rogers's SL velo (14 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 82.3
Cody Morris's FF velo (23 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 94.2
Cody Morris's CH velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 81.8
Eric Lauer's FC velo (20 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 88.1
Bryse Wilson's CH velo (10 pitches) DOWN -2.9mph to 83.2
Eric Lauer's SL velo (12 pitches) DOWN -4.0mph to 83.4
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Alex Cobb's CU usage (26.9%) up 13.4 points
Bailey Falter's FF usage (59.5%) up 35.8 points
Chris Bassitt's FC usage (28.7%) up 12.7 points
Chris Bassitt's CU usage (26.7%) up 14.0 points
Clayton Kershaw's FF usage (50.0%) up 10.9 points
Cody Morris's FC usage (42.6%) up 18.5 points
Cory Abbott's CU usage (40.9%) up 24.4 points
Dean Kremer's CH usage (25.0%) up 10.6 points
Dean Kremer's SI usage (22.8%) up 18.6 points
Eric Lauer's FC usage (33.3%) up 19.0 points
Javier Assad's SI usage (42.7%) up 17.4 points
Jordan Montgomery's FF usage (36.7%) up 22.7 points
Luis Castillo's FF usage (41.3%) up 10.3 points
Patrick Sandoval's SL usage (47.1%) up 19.7 points
Trevor Rogers's FF usage (62.1%) up 10.1 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Andrew Heaney - 92 TBF, 37.7% CSW%
Jacob deGrom - 96 TBF, 36.6% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 107 TBF, 36.4% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 98 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 71 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Ross Stripling - 74 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Patrick Sandoval - 100 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Lance Lynn - 96 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Jakob Junis - 68 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
JT Brubaker - 76 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 98 TBF, 41.8% K%
Andrew Heaney - 92 TBF, 39.1% K%
Jacob deGrom - 96 TBF, 36.5% K%
Lance Lynn - 96 TBF, 34.4% K%
Zac Gallen - 94 TBF, 34.0% K%
Cristian Javier - 80 TBF, 33.8% K%
Aaron Nola - 107 TBF, 32.7% K%
Blake Snell - 89 TBF, 32.6% K%
Triston McKenzie - 93 TBF, 32.3% K%
Carlos Rodon - 69 TBF, 31.9% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Andrew Heaney - 92 TBF, 35.9% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 98 TBF, 35.7% K-BB%
Jacob deGrom - 96 TBF, 33.3% K-BB%
Lance Lynn - 96 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 107 TBF, 29.9% K-BB%
Zac Gallen - 94 TBF, 28.7% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 97 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 100 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Triston McKenzie - 93 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 89 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Alex Cobb - 97 TBF, 65.2% GB%
Max Fried - 91 TBF, 63.6% GB%
JT Brubaker - 76 TBF, 62.7% GB%
Framber Valdez - 89 TBF, 61.1% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 101 TBF, 58.8% GB%
Jordan Montgomery - 101 TBF, 57.3% GB%
Kyle Wright - 96 TBF, 56.5% GB%
Chris Archer - 77 TBF, 55.9% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 71 TBF, 55.6% GB%
Luis Castillo - 100 TBF, 54.7% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
George Kirby - 58 TBF, 27.6 K%, 1.7 BB%, 63.4% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 107 TBF, 31.8 K%, 6.5 BB%, 45.3% GB%
Justin Lawrence - 48 TBF, 33.3 K%, 4.2 BB%, 53.3% GB%
Luis Castillo - 100 TBF, 30.0 K%, 4.0 BB%, 54.7% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 70 TBF, 27.1 K%, 5.7 BB%, 45.5% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 65 TBF, 27.7 K%, 7.7 BB%, 47.6% GB%
Shane Bieber - 106 TBF, 29.2 K%, 4.7 BB%, 52.9% GB%
Trevor Rogers - 46 TBF, 28.3 K%, 2.2 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Zac Gallen - 94 TBF, 34.0 K%, 5.3 BB%, 45.6% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Aaron Nola - +3.6% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Patrick Sandoval - +3.1% CSW%, -5.5 BB%
Lance Lynn - +5.4% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Spenser Watkins - +3.1% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Corey Kluber - +2.1% CSW%, -5.6 BB%
Andrew Heaney - +7.7% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Mitch Keller - +2.4% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Jakob Junis - +2.7% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Chad Kuhl - +3.6% CSW%, -4.6 BB%
George Kirby - +4.5% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Daulton Varsho (ARI) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 3 Barrels, 2 HR
Aristides Aquino (CIN) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Carlos Correa (MIN) 10 PA, 26 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
David Villar (SF) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Eugenio Suarez (SEA) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Jose Miranda (MIN) 10 PA, 20 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Kyle Tucker (HOU) 4 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Tyler Naquin (NYM) 9 PA, 21 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Kyle Tucker - 4.0 PA - 76.0 JA Points
2. Daulton Varsho - 4.0 PA - 70.0 JA Points
3. David Villar - 4.0 PA - 64.0 JA Points
4. Aristides Aquino - 4.0 PA - 57.0 JA Points
5. Eugenio Suarez - 5.0 PA - 54.0 JA Points
6. Eric Haase - 5.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
7. Jose Miranda - 6.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
8. Taylor Ward - 5.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
9. Alex Bregman - 4.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
10. Paul Goldschmidt - 4.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 573.0 PA - 141.5 JA Points
2. Juan Soto (SD) - 559.0 PA - 132.45 JA Points
3. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 463.0 PA - 128.64 JA Points
4. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 567.0 PA - 114.92 JA Points
5. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 599.0 PA - 110.85 JA Points
6. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 460.0 PA - 109.39 JA Points
7. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 504.0 PA - 104.44 JA Points
8. Alex Bregman (HOU) - 555.0 PA - 99.39 JA Points
9. Will Smith (LAD) - 482.0 PA - 92.28 JA Points
10. Adley Rutschman (BAL) - 368.0 PA - 91.41 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 113.3mph - double
Aristides Aquino (CIN) - 113.0mph - home_run
Michael Harris II (ATL) - 112.8mph - single
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 112.7mph - foul
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 112.5mph - single
Corey Seager (TEX) - 111.7mph - foul
Matt Chapman (TOR) - 111.4mph - foul
Eugenio Suarez (SEA) - 111.4mph - home_run
Alek Thomas (ARI) - 111.3mph - single
Randal Grichuk (COL) - 111.3mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 76 PA, 40 BIP, 12 Brls, 30.0 Brl%
Oneil Cruz - 69 PA, 39 BIP, 9 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
Eugenio Suarez - 73 PA, 44 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Seth Brown - 70 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 72 PA, 40 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Nathaniel Lowe - 83 PA, 62 BIP, 12 Brls, 19.4 Brl%
Cal Raleigh - 55 PA, 37 BIP, 7 Brls, 18.9 Brl%
Ryan Mountcastle - 81 PA, 54 BIP, 10 Brls, 18.5 Brl%
Joey Gallo - 49 PA, 22 BIP, 4 Brls, 18.2 Brl%
Luke Voit - 65 PA, 44 BIP, 8 Brls, 18.2 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Nathaniel Lowe - 83 PA, 0.498 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 76 PA, 0.492 xwOBA
Yandy Diaz - 71 PA, 0.456 xwOBA
Eloy Jimenez - 66 PA, 0.45 xwOBA
Justin Turner - 72 PA, 0.448 xwOBA
Cal Raleigh - 55 PA, 0.431 xwOBA
Bo Bichette - 90 PA, 0.429 xwOBA
Joc Pederson - 49 PA, 0.424 xwOBA
Jose Altuve - 76 PA, 0.411 xwOBA
Eugenio Suarez - 73 PA, 0.41 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Nick Madrigal - 71 PA, 122 Swings, 92.6 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 82 PA, 141 Swings, 92.2 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 71 PA, 124 Swings, 91.1 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 76 PA, 116 Swings, 90.5 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 57 PA, 81 Swings, 90.1 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 82 PA, 157 Swings, 89.8 Cont%
Brendan Donovan - 65 PA, 97 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
Nicky Lopez - 62 PA, 123 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
David Fletcher - 83 PA, 119 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 77 PA, 134 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Albert Pujols - 57 PA, 14.0 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Bo Bichette - 90 PA, 20.0 K%, 15.6 Brl%
Bobby Witt Jr. - 85 PA, 17.6 K%, 14.1 Brl%
Cal Raleigh - 55 PA, 18.2 K%, 18.9 Brl%
Eloy Jimenez - 66 PA, 15.2 K%, 15.9 Brl%
Justin Turner - 72 PA, 12.5 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Lars Nootbaar - 89 PA, 15.7 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Nathaniel Lowe - 83 PA, 14.5 K%, 19.4 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
C.J. Cron - +4.1% Contact%, +5.7 mph exit velo, -9.0 Chase%
Michael Harris II - +13.5% Contact%, +6.0 mph exit velo, -5.9 Chase%
Tommy Edman - +8.4% Contact%, +4.0 mph exit velo, -9.5 Chase%
Yandy Diaz - +11.3% Contact%, +3.5 mph exit velo, -3.7 Chase%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - +10.3% Contact%, +4.6 mph exit velo, -13.4 Chase%
C.J. Abrams - +8.2% Contact%, +3.9 mph exit velo, -12.5 Chase%
Franmil Reyes - +3.5% Contact%, +3.2 mph exit velo, -8.7 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Nathaniel Lowe - 0.483 xwOBA, 16.7% Brl%, 80.0% Contact%, 21.1% Chase%, 12.3% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Jo Adell - 41.8% Whiff%, 73.1% Weak%, 0.942 Cold Rating
Emmanuel Rivera - 41.7% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.933 Cold Rating
Jose Siri - 34.2% Whiff%, 76.0% Weak%, 0.928 Cold Rating
Jose Barrero - 30.5% Whiff%, 82.6% Weak%, 0.906 Cold Rating
Andrew Velazquez - 42.0% Whiff%, 68.4% Weak%, 0.891 Cold Rating
Gilberto Celestino - 30.0% Whiff%, 80.0% Weak%, 0.891 Cold Rating
Trea Turner - 29.5% Whiff%, 77.3% Weak%, 0.871 Cold Rating
Drew Waters - 31.2% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.87 Cold Rating
Mitch Haniger - 31.4% Whiff%, 69.0% Weak%, 0.838 Cold Rating
Chris Taylor - 47.3% Whiff%, 64.7% Weak%, 0.836 Cold Rating
Now to the paid stuff. For $7/month or $70/year you get access to a bunch of extra goodies, including, but not limited to
NFL Dashboards, Notes, Reports, Write-Ups, and Projections!!
Minor League Stat Dashboards
Daily Projections (with DraftKings salaries & scores) Excel & a Tableau Dashboard)
Strikeout Prop Model Comparisons. Compares my K projection with FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook betting lines
My personal DraftKings player pools and cash lineups (not every day but when I have time!)
Daily hitter matchup ratings
Plate Discipline leaderboard
More Magic Formula Qualifiers
Pitch Mix and Velo Changes Tracker
Full daily and season-long pitcher and hitter data reports
Full access to my daily-updated algorithmic hitter and pitcher rankings
Offseason reviews & previews of every single fantasy-relevant player
More stuff added throughout the year as ideas come to me
Premium Features - SAMPLES
Here are some samples of what you get with the paid subscription, for anybody on the fence!
SAMPLE K Prop Comparison Sheet
SAMPLE JA Algorithm - Season Hitter Ranks
SAMPLE DraftKings Hitter Scoring Analysis
You get all of that updated daily (projections updated throughout the day as lineups come out) for just $7/month or $70/year - along with a ton more stuff.