MLB Daily Notes - Tuesday, April 12
The legend of Kwan continues, he has now made contact on all 26 of his swings and he’s slashing a cool .692/.789/1.000. I hope some of you have made some profit off of it, as we identified his contact ability pretty early on here and on my Twitter!
It’s funny how simple baseball can be in the midst of all the complexity. I’ve seen some people out there saying Kwan is another classic example of a lucky streak in the beginning of the year and then a quick crash. Remember Yermin Mercedes last year? Chris Shelton 13 years ago or whenever that was?
The difference and the simplicity of this all has to do with striking out. Kwan is simply not going to strike out above a 10% rate this year, that’s clear to me. That means he has a chance of a hit something like 90% of the time. This is just arithmetic, when you’re giving yourself that high of a base probability of a hit, the statistics simply have to follow. And when you’re getting on base at a high clip while hitting #2 in the batting order, the runs also… have to follow.
There are fair questions about whether the batting average and on-base percentage justify him as a top 100 hitter (or whatever the number might be) if he’s only going to hit 5-10 homers. Those questions are good. But make no mistake - Kwan has a skill that few other hitters have. If you can put that many balls in play, it is really, really hard to be a bad fantasy player. It’s science!
CSW% Leaders
1. Nick Martinez (SD): 15.7 SwStr%, 39.8 CSW%
2. Jameson Taillon (NYY): 23.6 SwStr%, 38.9 CSW%
3. Paul Blackburn (OAK): 16.9 SwStr%, 38.0 CSW%
4. Alex Wood (SF): 11.6 SwStr%, 34.9 CSW%
5. Bruce Zimmermann (BAL): 6.1 SwStr%, 31.8 CSW%
6. Tucker Davidson (ATL): 15.5 SwStr%, 31.0 CSW%
7. David Peterson (NYM): 8.6 SwStr%, 31.0 CSW%
8. Alek Manoah (TOR): 18.0 SwStr%, 30.3 CSW%
9. Michael Lorenzen (LAA): 15.7 SwStr%, 30.3 CSW%
10. Josh Rogers (WSH): 9.5 SwStr%, 29.7 CSW%
Velo Changes
Tucker Davidson's FF velo (29 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 94.9
Paul Blackburn's CU velo (17 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 80.6
Alex Wood's CH velo (14 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 86.8
Michael Lorenzen's SI velo (28 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 94.1
Carlos Hernandez's FF velo (26 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 95.2
Austin Gomber's SL velo (26 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 83.3
Matt Manning's SL velo (10 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 83.3
Aaron Civale's CU velo (10 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 74.8
Michael Lorenzen's SL velo (16 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 83.1
Michael Wacha's CH velo (26 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 84.5
Chris Mazza's SL velo (21 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 76.8
Chris Mazza's FC velo (24 pitches) DOWN -2.7mph to 84.4
Aaron Civale's FC velo (16 pitches) DOWN -3.2mph to 84.5
Aaron Civale's SL velo (23 pitches) DOWN -4.3mph to 79.1
Pitch Mix Changes
Aaron Ashby's SI usage (50.0%) up 16.0 points
Aaron Civale's SL usage (31.1%) up 18.9 points
David Peterson's CH usage (34.5%) up 18.2 points
Matt Manning's FF usage (60.3%) up 18.9 points
Michael Lorenzen's SI usage (31.5%) up 21.7 points
Paul Blackburn's CU usage (23.9%) up 11.7 points
Ranger Suarez's FF usage (36.5%) up 14.0 points
Taylor Hearn's SL usage (40.6%) up 20.6 points
CSW% Leaders - Season
Carlos Rodon - 20 TBF, 41.6% CSW%
Shohei Ohtani - 19 TBF, 41.2% CSW%
Nick Martinez - 21 TBF, 39.8% CSW%
Pablo Lopez - 19 TBF, 39.2% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 22 TBF, 39.2% CSW%
Jameson Taillon - 20 TBF, 38.9% CSW%
Nathan Eovaldi - 23 TBF, 38.2% CSW%
Michael King - 19 TBF, 38.2% CSW%
Paul Blackburn - 19 TBF, 38.0% CSW%
Kyle Gibson - 22 TBF, 37.8% CSW%
K% Leaders - Season
Carlos Rodon - 20 TBF, 60.0% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 19 TBF, 47.4% K%
Kyle Gibson - 22 TBF, 45.5% K%
Merrill Kelly - 17 TBF, 41.2% K%
Dylan Cease - 20 TBF, 40.0% K%
Spencer Strider - 21 TBF, 38.1% K%
Shane McClanahan - 19 TBF, 36.8% K%
Paul Blackburn - 19 TBF, 36.8% K%
Joe Musgrove - 22 TBF, 36.4% K%
Chris Bassitt - 22 TBF, 36.4% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Season
Carlos Rodon - 20 TBF, 50.0% K-BB%
Kyle Gibson - 22 TBF, 45.5% K-BB%
Shohei Ohtani - 19 TBF, 42.1% K-BB%
Joe Musgrove - 22 TBF, 36.4% K-BB%
Michael Lorenzen - 20 TBF, 35.0% K-BB%
Tylor Megill - 18 TBF, 33.3% K-BB%
Chris Bassitt - 22 TBF, 31.8% K-BB%
Paul Blackburn - 19 TBF, 31.6% K-BB%
Michael King - 19 TBF, 31.6% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 23 TBF, 30.4% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Season
Marcus Stroman - 19 TBF, 76.9% GB%
Noah Syndergaard - 20 TBF, 75.0% GB%
Logan Webb - 24 TBF, 75.0% GB%
Framber Valdez - 22 TBF, 73.3% GB%
Hyun Jin Ryu - 17 TBF, 72.7% GB%
Michael Lorenzen - 20 TBF, 69.2% GB%
Aaron Nola - 23 TBF, 66.7% GB%
Carlos Hernandez - 20 TBF, 64.7% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 23 TBF, 64.3% GB%
Zach Davies - 21 TBF, 62.5% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers
Aaron Nola - 23 TBF, 30.4 K%, 0.0 BB%, 66.7% GB%
Adam Wainwright - 21 TBF, 28.6 K%, 0.0 BB%, 53.3% GB%
Chris Bassitt - 22 TBF, 36.4 K%, 4.5 BB%, 53.8% GB%
Framber Valdez - 22 TBF, 27.3 K%, 4.5 BB%, 73.3% GB%
Frankie Montas - 22 TBF, 27.3 K%, 4.5 BB%, 46.7% GB%
Justin Steele - 18 TBF, 27.8 K%, 5.6 BB%, 58.3% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 22 TBF, 45.5 K%, 0.0 BB%, 58.3% GB%
Kyle Wright - 21 TBF, 28.6 K%, 4.8 BB%, 46.2% GB%
Michael Lorenzen - 20 TBF, 35.0 K%, 0.0 BB%, 69.2% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 23 TBF, 30.4 K%, 4.3 BB%, 64.3% GB%
Paul Blackburn - 19 TBF, 36.8 K%, 5.3 BB%, 54.5% GB%
Sean Manaea - 22 TBF, 31.8 K%, 4.5 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Taylor Hearn - 21 TBF, 28.6 K%, 4.8 BB%, 61.5% GB%
Tylor Megill - 18 TBF, 33.3 K%, 0.0 BB%, 58.3% GB%
Multiple Barrels
Byron Buxton (MIN) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Chad Pinder (OAK) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Elias Diaz (COL) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
J.D. Martinez (BOS) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Jo Adell (LAA) 4 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Maikel Franco (WSH) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Hardest Hit Balls
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 114.6mph - foul
Jonathan Schoop (DET) - 113.8mph - foul
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 113.7mph - foul
George Springer (TOR) - 111.9mph - single
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 111.7mph - field_out
Maikel Franco (WSH) - 111.7mph - single
Joey Bart (SF) - 111.4mph - double
Elias Diaz (COL) - 111.2mph - single
Anthony Santander (BAL) - 111.2mph - single
Miguel Cabrera (DET) - 111.0mph - sac_fly
Brl% Leaders - Season
Byron Buxton - 17 PA, 11 BIP, 5 Brls, 45.5 Brl%
Joey Gallo - 17 PA, 8 BIP, 3 Brls, 37.5 Brl%
Miguel Sano - 16 PA, 7 BIP, 2 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 18 PA, 11 BIP, 3 Brls, 27.3 Brl%
Mitch Haniger - 16 PA, 12 BIP, 3 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 17 PA, 12 BIP, 3 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Matt Olson - 21 PA, 13 BIP, 3 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
Nick Castellanos - 16 PA, 9 BIP, 2 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Maikel Franco - 18 PA, 14 BIP, 3 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Rhys Hoskins - 16 PA, 10 BIP, 2 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Contact% Leaders - Season
Steven Kwan - 19 PA, 26 Swings, 100.0 Cont%
Jake Cronenworth - 21 PA, 33 Swings, 93.9 Cont%
Mike Trout - 15 PA, 29 Swings, 93.1 Cont%
Amed Rosario - 18 PA, 27 Swings, 92.6 Cont%
Mitch Garver - 16 PA, 34 Swings, 91.2 Cont%
Austin Nola - 18 PA, 24 Swings, 87.5 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 18 PA, 32 Swings, 87.5 Cont%
Carlos Santana - 15 PA, 31 Swings, 87.1 Cont%
Starling Marte - 19 PA, 31 Swings, 87.1 Cont%
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 16 PA, 31 Swings, 87.1 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters
Alex Verdugo - 16 PA, 18.8 K%, 18.2 Brl%
Anthony Rizzo - 17 PA, 11.8 K%, 20.0 Brl%
Austin Riley - 21 PA, 19.0 K%, 15.4 Brl%
Carlos Santana - 15 PA, 6.7 K%, 18.2 Brl%
Connor Joe - 19 PA, 15.8 K%, 15.4 Brl%
Javier Baez - 16 PA, 18.8 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Jean Segura - 16 PA, 12.5 K%, 15.4 Brl%
Jose Ramirez - 18 PA, 11.1 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Jurickson Profar - 17 PA, 17.6 K%, 18.2 Brl%
Kyle Tucker - 15 PA, 6.7 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Matt Olson - 21 PA, 14.3 K%, 23.1 Brl%
Mike Trout - 15 PA, 20.0 K%, 20.0 Brl%
Nelson Cruz - 22 PA, 18.2 K%, 18.8 Brl%
Oscar Mercado - 16 PA, 18.8 K%, 15.4 Brl%
Rhys Hoskins - 16 PA, 18.8 K%, 20.0 Brl%
Ryan Mountcastle - 16 PA, 6.2 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Salvador Perez - 17 PA, 17.6 K%, 15.4 Brl%
Seth Brown - 15 PA, 20.0 K%, 18.2 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 16 PA, 18.8 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Wander Franco - 16 PA, 12.5 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 16 PA, 0.0 K%, 14.3 Brl%
ll projections will be updated throughout the day pulling in updated lineups & re-running projections, bookmark these Google Sheets!
Apr 12 Hitter Projections
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Top HR Projections
Jesse Winker 0.51
Eugenio Suarez 0.46
Mitch Haniger 0.44
Matt Olson 0.42
Marcell Ozuna 0.41
Teoscar Hernandez 0.40
Aaron Judge 0.40
Jarred Kelenic 0.4
Byron Buxton 0.37
George Springer 0.35
Apr 12 Pitcher Projections
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Top K Projections
Shane Bieber 6.9
Yu Darvish 6.8
Tyler Mahle 6.3
Jose Quintana 5.9
Tylor Megill 5.8
Andrew Heaney 5.8
Eric Lauer 5.5
Zack Wheeler 5.4
Rich Hill 5.4
Nestor Cortes 5.3