MLB Daily Notes: Tuesday, July 26
Introduction / Explanations for New Readers
My son drank like 8 ounces of chocolate milk in like 17 seconds this morning, and then freaked out when I took away the empty cup from him. I think the question at the root of all political disagreement concerns this:
Are humans innately good and get pulled towards the bad? Or are humans innately bad and must struggle towards goodness?
There was some quote from some group years ago that answered this, taking it extremely far - saying that if a baby could, they would kill their mother to get the next bite of food. Saying if a child were left to their own devices with no external correction, they would all turn out to be depraved criminal psycho murderers. No matter how much I Google, I can’t find this quote, but I know I’m not imagining it.
I’m certain that nobody understands what I mean by saying that this question is at the root of politics - but it is. Do we need to push ourselves towards the good, or hold ourselves back from the bad? Your answer to that question no doubt influences what you’ll recommend for the governing of people. Can we solve our problems if we just get the right collection of people to make the decisions and get the citizenry on board? Or will concentrating power among any group of people result in corruption and catastrophe?
Being raised Christian and still holding to those beliefs, I was pre-disposed to the idea that humans are innately bad (read: sinful) and we must fight all the time to keep ourselves away from our root sinful inclinations. So that’s a bias, to be sure, but having kids certainly hasn’t changed my mind. A child can only see what’s directly in front of them, they cannot think from anybody’s perspective but their own, and they have no consciousness of the future or of consequences for actions.
This doesn’t prove anything, of course, you could say that maybe those things do come naturally, but just later on in life when your brain has more time to add them on evolutionarily - or something. But my feeling is that if I as a parent don’t constantly stress morality to my kids, they’ll probably end up without much of it.
Didn’t really intend those paragraphs to come together like that, but off we go to baseball talk!
Aaron Ashby is back! Look at this beauty:
A 20%+ SwStr% on both of his main offerings is insane, and the CSW% marks were just off the freaking charts. The matchup with the non-Coors Rockies will help but it’s great to see Ashby dominate again after a really rough return from the IL. For the year:
27.3% K%
9.8% BB%
57.4% GB%
That’s pretty close to qualifying for the magic formula, with the only problem being the walk rate. If Ashby is available in your league you should go get him.
The other standout pitcher was Nick Lodolo, who had an awesome outing against the Marlins getting 14 whiffs and nine strikeouts while toughing it through six innings without giving up an earned run. The rookie has now made seven starts and has done this
30.5% K%
9.1% BB%
41.9% GB%
32.3% CSW%
13.8% SwStr%
He has a good sinker with a 33.2% CSW% and a 9.9% SwStr% on the year, although it doesn’t get many ground-balls (38.8%), so it’s an atypical sinker. The curveball has been his best pitch (21.8% SwStr%, 35.9% CSW%), and he throws a decent changeup as well (15.4% SwStr%, 23.1% CSW%).
If we look at my JA pitcher ranking algorithm, Lodolo actually ranks #9 among pitchers with at least 5 starts this year. You won’t see him on the main sheet because he hasn’t thrown enough innings to qualify for that sheet, but the dashboard shows us this:
My algorithm is far from perfect, but it’s a positive sign - Lodolo is doing the things that I have deemed important.
I don’t expect domination from Lodolo through the rest of the year given he’s a rookie without impeccable command, but the stuff is really good and that itself should turn into some really nice outings the rest of the way - I want Lodolo on my teams, and he’s very exciting for the future.
Bryson Stott had another big game with two hits, a homer, a double, and 5 RBI.
Cutting his season into two parts:
First 118 PA
.193/.254/.330, 4 HR, 4% Brl%, 26% K%, 8% BB%, 78% Contact%
Last 117 PA
.200/.282/.333, 3 HR, 4% Brl%, 11% K%, 10% BB%, 89% Contact%
At no point has he convinced us with the power production, but the swing decisions have changed recently.
Apr-Jun: 43.5% Swing%, 24.4% Chase%
July: 43.8% Swing%, 19.2% Chase%
That’s a pretty big improvement in chase rate, and it is not coming with a change in swing rate - so that’s evidence that he’s actually improving at picking up pitches rather than just committing to not swinging as much. Even if we just filter to July, the barrel rate is just 5.2%, so there’s not much pop in the bat right now - but his K% of 8.3% will result in plenty of base hits while he’s in the lineup - so that’s something to consider.
Austin Riley had two blasts without a homer last night, so that sucks if you have Austin Riley, but he continues to just tear the cover off of the ball and limit strikeouts (25.5% K%). He’s a stud, and he’s already beat his season steals projection by infinity (2 vs. a projection ZERO).
I suppose mathematically, two isn’t infinitely more than zero… it’s undefined, or something, since you can’t divide by zero - but still - I nailed that joke.
July Blasts Leaders
Riley - 11
Judge - 10
Morel - 8
Voit - 7
Schwarber - 7
Freeman - 7
Hernandez - 6
Hoskins - 6
Laureano - 6
Semien - 6
Franmil - 6
Lindor - 6
Seager - 6
Tonight’s DraftKings pitching slate is elite, so I’m excited to play tonight, here’s a look at the top six projected pitchers:
Any value mark over 2.00 is quite good, and we can see that all six of these dudes are meeting that threshold. Should be fun, I’ll have a DFS picks article out this afternoon.
I guess that’s all I’ve got, talk to you all later!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Aaron Ashby (MIL): 15.3 SwStr%, 40.5 CSW%
2. Nick Lodolo (CIN): 14.6 SwStr%, 36.5 CSW%
3. Merrill Kelly (ARI): 10.1 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
4. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 13.7 SwStr%, 32.6 CSW%
5. JT Brubaker (PIT): 15.1 SwStr%, 32.6 CSW%
6. Drew Hutchison (DET): 12.5 SwStr%, 30.0 CSW%
7. Max Fried (ATL): 13.6 SwStr%, 29.1 CSW%
8. Kyle Freeland (COL): 7.1 SwStr%, 28.3 CSW%
9. Tony Gonsolin (LAD): 6.7 SwStr%, 27.8 CSW%
10. Jakob Junis (SF): 6.5 SwStr%, 27.4 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Nick Lodolo - 6.0 IP - 68.75 JA Points
2. Merrill Kelly - 7.67 IP - 67.75 JA Points
3. Aaron Ashby - 7.0 IP - 66.75 JA Points
4. Max Fried - 6.0 IP - 64.25 JA Points
5. Kyle Freeland - 6.67 IP - 49.75 JA Points
6. Nick Pivetta - 5.67 IP - 42.75 JA Points
7. Ranger Suarez - 5.0 IP - 40.0 JA Points
8. Nick Vespi - 1.67 IP - 39.5 JA Points
9. Adrian Sampson - 7.0 IP - 39.25 JA Points
10. Chris Flexen - 6.0 IP - 34.25 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 10 GS - 56.37 JA Points
2. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 18 GS - 55.14 JA Points
3. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 19 GS - 54.52 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 16 GS - 53.22 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 20 GS - 52.34 JA Points
6. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 12 GS - 50.96 JA Points
7. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 14 GS - 49.71 JA Points
8. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 20 GS - 47.83 JA Points
9. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 19 GS - 46.88 JA Points
10. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 14 GS - 46.08 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Jakob Junis's CH velo (15 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 85.9
JT Brubaker's CU velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 78.9
Chris Flexen's SL velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 79.6
Adam Oller's SL velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 81.2
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Adam Oller's FF usage (53.5%) up 28.2 points
Adrian Sampson's CH usage (31.0%) up 17.6 points
Austin Voth's FF usage (55.7%) up 11.5 points
Chris Flexen's SL usage (16.5%) up 10.4 points
Jake Odorizzi's SL usage (27.2%) up 19.0 points
Kyle Freeland's SI usage (32.3%) up 13.4 points
Ranger Suarez's FC usage (23.1%) up 20.7 points
Sean Manaea's SL usage (24.3%) up 10.5 points
Trevor Rogers's SL usage (29.8%) up 11.2 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 77 TBF, 39.1% CSW%
Max Scherzer - 97 TBF, 38.7% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 102 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Jose Berrios - 73 TBF, 35.7% CSW%
Kyle Wright - 82 TBF, 35.5% CSW%
Brandon Woodruff - 75 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Aaron Ashby - 77 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Braxton Garrett - 66 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 80 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Chris Bassitt - 76 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 77 TBF, 42.9% K%
Max Scherzer - 97 TBF, 40.2% K%
David Peterson - 67 TBF, 37.3% K%
Jose Berrios - 73 TBF, 35.6% K%
Gerrit Cole - 102 TBF, 35.3% K%
Justin Verlander - 77 TBF, 35.1% K%
Sandy Alcantara - 105 TBF, 34.3% K%
Corbin Burnes - 74 TBF, 33.8% K%
Nick Lodolo - 85 TBF, 32.9% K%
Carlos Rodon - 80 TBF, 32.5% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Max Scherzer - 97 TBF, 38.1% K-BB%
Shohei Ohtani - 77 TBF, 35.1% K-BB%
Jose Berrios - 73 TBF, 32.9% K-BB%
Justin Verlander - 77 TBF, 29.9% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 102 TBF, 29.4% K-BB%
Sandy Alcantara - 105 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Alex Wood - 80 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%
Clayton Kershaw - 74 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Jon Gray - 72 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Robbie Ray - 65 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 87 TBF, 67.7% GB%
Carlos Carrasco - 67 TBF, 64.6% GB%
Andre Pallante - 69 TBF, 62.7% GB%
Brad Keller - 71 TBF, 61.2% GB%
Alex Cobb - 106 TBF, 60.5% GB%
Kyle Freeland - 71 TBF, 59.6% GB%
Brayan Bello - 64 TBF, 58.7% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 105 TBF, 58.1% GB%
Jose Urena - 100 TBF, 56.6% GB%
Clayton Kershaw - 74 TBF, 56.0% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Alex Wood - 80 TBF, 31.2 K%, 3.8 BB%, 53.8% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 66 TBF, 31.8 K%, 6.1 BB%, 46.2% GB%
Clayton Kershaw - 74 TBF, 29.7 K%, 2.7 BB%, 56.0% GB%
Robbie Ray - 65 TBF, 29.2 K%, 3.1 BB%, 45.5% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 105 TBF, 34.3 K%, 5.7 BB%, 58.1% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 74 TBF, 28.4 K%, 4.1 BB%, 52.0% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Mitch Keller - +4.1% CSW%, -7.3 BB%
Kyle Wright - +5.0% CSW%, -5.5 BB%
Chris Bassitt - +3.9% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Max Scherzer - +4.4% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Jose Berrios - +5.7% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Jon Gray - +2.9% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Braxton Garrett - +4.2% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Dean Kremer - +3.2% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Austin Riley (ATL) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Chas McCormick (HOU) 4 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jeimer Candelario (DET) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Jeremy Pena (HOU) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
MJ Melendez (KC) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Taylor Ward (LAA) 4 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Jonathan India - 5.0 PA - 67.0 JA Points
2. Jeimer Candelario - 4.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
3. Tony Kemp - 3.0 PA - 51.0 JA Points
4. Jeremy Pena - 5.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
5. David Peralta - 5.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
6. Miguel Cabrera - 4.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
7. Chas McCormick - 4.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
8. Skye Bolt - 3.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
9. Ty France - 4.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
10. Nick Pratto - 4.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 328.0 PA - 150.24 JA Points
2. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 406.0 PA - 128.47 JA Points
3. Juan Soto (WSH) - 407.0 PA - 125.6 JA Points
4. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 316.0 PA - 120.38 JA Points
5. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 421.0 PA - 114.11 JA Points
6. Jose Abreu (CWS) - 411.0 PA - 109.29 JA Points
7. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 404.0 PA - 106.73 JA Points
8. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 356.0 PA - 105.73 JA Points
9. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 271.0 PA - 104.21 JA Points
10. Will Smith (LAD) - 334.0 PA - 102.87 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Austin Riley (ATL) - 114.0mph - double
Hunter Renfroe (MIL) - 111.4mph - grounded_into_double_play
Luke Raley (TB) - 110.9mph - double
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 110.8mph - field_out
Patrick Wisdom (CHC) - 110.6mph - double
Willians Astudillo (MIA) - 110.5mph - nan
Randal Grichuk (COL) - 110.0mph - double
Willson Contreras (CHC) - 110.0mph - double
Josh Naylor (CLE) - 109.9mph - field_out
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 109.6mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 73 PA, 42 BIP, 13 Brls, 31.0 Brl%
Darick Hall - 54 PA, 32 BIP, 8 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Austin Riley - 73 PA, 54 BIP, 13 Brls, 24.1 Brl%
Eloy Jimenez - 44 PA, 29 BIP, 7 Brls, 24.1 Brl%
J.D. Martinez - 50 PA, 35 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.9 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 65 PA, 37 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Franchy Cordero - 50 PA, 19 BIP, 4 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Ramon Laureano - 71 PA, 44 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Jorge Polanco - 58 PA, 35 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
LaMonte Wade Jr. - 41 PA, 25 BIP, 5 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Austin Riley - 73 PA, 0.510 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 73 PA, 0.500 xwOBA
Freddie Freeman - 68 PA, 0.495 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 65 PA, 0.480 xwOBA
Corey Seager - 68 PA, 0.461 xwOBA
Alec Bohm - 44 PA, 0.451 xwOBA
Ketel Marte - 64 PA, 0.446 xwOBA
Carson Kelly - 44 PA, 0.430 xwOBA
Jorge Polanco - 58 PA, 0.429 xwOBA
Chas McCormick - 51 PA, 0.426 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 81 PA, 124 Swings, 93.5 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 54 PA, 90 Swings, 93.3 Cont%
Myles Straw - 60 PA, 93 Swings, 92.5 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 65 PA, 105 Swings, 92.4 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 57 PA, 102 Swings, 91.2 Cont%
Ty France - 58 PA, 112 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Joey Wendle - 63 PA, 109 Swings, 89.9 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 58 PA, 103 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Alex Verdugo - 65 PA, 124 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 42 PA, 90 Swings, 87.8 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Hicks - 54 PA, 18.5 K%, 17.6 Brl%
Adley Rutschman - 57 PA, 19.3 K%, 14.7 Brl%
Carlos Santana - 54 PA, 13.0 K%, 15.0 Brl%
Chas McCormick - 51 PA, 19.6 K%, 15.6 Brl%
Corey Seager - 68 PA, 8.8 K%, 16.4 Brl%
Jorge Polanco - 58 PA, 15.5 K%, 20.0 Brl%
Ketel Marte - 64 PA, 6.2 K%, 16.0 Brl%
Vinnie Pasquantino - 75 PA, 18.7 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Sean Murphy - +11.7% Contact%, +3.2 mph exit velo, -7.9 Chase%
Chas McCormick - +3.8% Contact%, +6.3 mph exit velo, -13.9 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Juan Soto - 0.438 xwOBA, 10.3% Brl%, 87.1% Contact%, 17.9% Chase%, 11.6% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Trey Mancini - 35.1% Whiff%, 86.4% Weak%, 0.961 Cold Rating
Jake Meyers - 33.3% Whiff%, 81.0% Weak%, 0.945 Cold Rating
Oneil Cruz - 37.3% Whiff%, 70.0% Weak%, 0.879 Cold Rating
Jonathan Schoop - 29.4% Whiff%, 74.1% Weak%, 0.863 Cold Rating
Michael Harris II - 32.9% Whiff%, 69.6% Weak%, 0.846 Cold Rating
Gleyber Torres - 27.7% Whiff%, 74.2% Weak%, 0.844 Cold Rating
Jonah Heim - 28.2% Whiff%, 73.9% Weak%, 0.84 Cold Rating
Bryan De La Cruz - 39.5% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.837 Cold Rating
Eugenio Suarez - 39.1% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.833 Cold Rating
Willson Contreras - 37.5% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.83 Cold Rating
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