MLB Daily Notes: Wednesday, August 17
Introduction / Explanation For New Readers
Today is Christmas for me as I ordered a new Macbook Pro last week and it’s coming today. There are few pleasures in life quite as satisfying as firing up a brand new Mac, at least for me.
All season, I have been running my fantasy baseball empire from my work laptop, which is a pretty big no-no but I’ve avoided trouble (so far…). They are, however, taking me out of the group that allows access to Google Docs, which was going to absolutely kill me since tons of what I do here depends on that access. So that forced my hand to buy a new MacBook, not that I needed convincing - but it made me brazen enough to finally do it.
I would appreciate if you could all close your eyes, take a deep breath, and wish me Merry Christmas in your heads.
Five Pitcher Studs from Yesterday:
Sonny Gray: 40.2% CSW%, 17.4% SwStr%, 16 whiffs, 10 K
Charlie Morton: 37.1% CSW%, 19.6% SwStr%, 16 whiffs, 12 K
Edward Cabrera: 30.8% CSW%, 12.1% SwStr%, 11 whiffs, 7 K
Kyle Gibson: 34.8% CSW%, 17.4% SwStr%, 16 whiffs, 11 K
Robbie Ray: 37.1% CSW%, 15.5% SwStr%, 15 whiffs, 10 K
Five Pitcher Duds:
Mitch Keller (21.7% CSW%)
TJ Zeuch (3.8% SwStr%)
Taijuan Walker (got hurt)
Zach Plesac (22.3% CSW%)
Patrick Corbin (22.7% CSW%)
It’s been a bumpy ride for Charlie Morton this year
We thought he had figured it out in late June, but now he’s just alternating between good starts and bad ones.
Let’s do a refresher of the worst offenses in the league right now, here are the bottom 10 offenses by their OPS since July 1st.
LAA .601
MIA .602
DET .611
PIT .625
WSH .661
OAK .663
CIN .668
BOS .670
SEA .679
CHC .685
The average is .708 and the top three are:
LAD .837
ATL .787
NYY .771
The Nationals are weirdly at .736 since losing Bell and Soto, lots of thanks to Joey Meneses (1.085) and Nelson Cruz (.816) for that, and Yadiel Hernandez (.785), Luke Voit (.782), and Keibert Ruiz (.757) have been pretty good as well.
Jake Fraley has entered the top 10 JA hitters of August
Max Muncy
Juan Soto
Paul Goldschmidt
Alex Bregman
Jake Fraley
Vinnie Pasquantino
Nolan Arenado
Ryan McMahon
Christian Walker
Aaron Judge
Fraley was someone there was some buzz for when he got moved to the Reds in that Jesse Winker trade, but some injuries have kept him out of the lineup for much of the year. In August, he’s hitting .371/.439/.686 with 3 bangkoks, a 12.1% Brl%, a 7.3% %, a 12.2% BB%, and a 86.4% Contact%.
For the year: .259/.333/.482, 7.1% Brl%, 16.7% K%, 9.4% BB%, 78.4% Cont%, .338 xwOBA. He’s only 27 years old and has been a huge OBP guy for the last few years with his career 13.2% BB%. Now playing in Cincinnati the power numbers can come up a bit - so he’s a pretty interesting add right now in OBP leagues at least.
I’m in the process of developing a new daily report that gets data on how hitters have done against similar pitch arsenals to the guy they’re facing that day. We have had one here for months, but the problem with that one is that it was clustering pitchers together just based on the pitch types they throw - this new one will include the pitch movements to cluster together.
It makes way more sense to use pitch movement rather than just pitch mix, so that’ll be out today I hope.
The problem I’m having is with getting one number for each hitter. So we can say that Trea Turner has a 9% Brl% and an 80% contact% against fastballs like Eric Lauer’s fastball, and then an 8% Brl% and a 75% contact% against sliders like Lauer’s - but how do we put those together? I don’t want to just average the 9% and 8% to 8.5%, because Lauer throws the fastball more often - so it should get more weight. If a hitter crushes the type of curveball a pitcher throws, but you only expect that pitcher to throw one curveball to the guy - it doesn’t really matter.
I suppose the answer is just simple weighting math.. but I want to use multiple statistics as well, so it’s a little tough, but I’ll figure something out.
Here’s an example:
So Trea makes tons of contact with that type of fastball, but it’s rarely a barrel. I’ll put together a full introduction post to this once it’s done, and I’ll find some way to share the full data including the clusters for each pitcher/pitch.
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Sonny Gray (MIN): 17.4 SwStr%, 40.2 CSW%
2. Charlie Morton (ATL): 19.6 SwStr%, 37.1 CSW%
3. Robbie Ray (SEA): 15.5 SwStr%, 37.1 CSW%
4. Jakob Junis (SF): 15.8 SwStr%, 35.6 CSW%
5. Ryan Pepiot (LAD): 14.3 SwStr%, 35.2 CSW%
6. Kyle Gibson (PHI): 17.4 SwStr%, 34.8 CSW%
7. Brandon Woodruff (MIL): 17.2 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
8. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 10.1 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
9. Dean Kremer (BAL): 13.3 SwStr%, 31.6 CSW%
10. R.J. Alvarez (NYM): 11.8 SwStr%, 31.4 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Charlie Morton - 6.67 IP - 93.75 JA Points
2. Sonny Gray - 6.0 IP - 85.75 JA Points
3. Jakob Junis - 7.0 IP - 79.75 JA Points
4. Kyle Gibson - 5.67 IP - 73.25 JA Points
5. Robbie Ray - 6.0 IP - 60.5 JA Points
6. Dean Kremer - 6.67 IP - 57.0 JA Points
7. Edward Cabrera - 4.0 IP - 56.5 JA Points
8. Justin Steele - 6.0 IP - 50.0 JA Points
9. Nestor Cortes - 7.0 IP - 48.0 JA Points
10. Jose Suarez - 5.33 IP - 47.5 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 14.0 GS - 56.04 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 23.0 GS - 53.56 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 22.0 GS - 52.34 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 20.0 GS - 51.88 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 24.0 GS - 50.43 JA Points
6. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 24.0 GS - 48.73 JA Points
7. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 23.0 GS - 48.13 JA Points
8. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 16.0 GS - 48.06 JA Points
9. Blake Snell (SD) - 15.0 GS - 46.74 JA Points
10. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 18.0 GS - 44.6 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Patrick Corbin's CH velo (13 pitches) UP 2.6mph to 84.7
Jose Suarez's SL velo (23 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 82.0
Brandon Woodruff's CU velo (15 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 85.6
Justin Steele's SL velo (39 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 83.5
Alek Manoah's SL velo (29 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 83.0
Edward Cabrera's CH velo (32 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 91.6
Nestor Cortes's SL velo (14 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 75.6
Sean Manaea's SI velo (26 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 89.1
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Brandon Woodruff's FF usage (54.8%) up 17.0 points
Charlie Morton's CU usage (49.5%) up 12.9 points
Dean Kremer's FC usage (48.8%) up 18.0 points
Garrett Hill's FF usage (48.4%) up 16.5 points
Jeffrey Springs's SL usage (35.9%) up 10.5 points
Jose Quintana's SI usage (37.3%) up 22.4 points
Jose Suarez's SL usage (28.0%) up 12.4 points
Kyle Freeland's SI usage (37.0%) up 16.5 points
Merrill Kelly's FF usage (39.8%) up 10.5 points
Patrick Corbin's SI usage (57.7%) up 19.8 points
Robbie Ray's SI usage (29.9%) up 10.2 points
Sean Manaea's CH usage (46.9%) up 22.8 points
Sonny Gray's CU usage (33.7%) up 11.1 points
T.J. Zeuch's SL usage (38.5%) up 14.3 points
Zach Plesac's CH usage (33.0%) up 11.1 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Reid Detmers - 74 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 105 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 95 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 98 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Corey Kluber - 79 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Brady Singer - 102 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 77 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Adam Wainwright - 107 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Shohei Ohtani - 99 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 84 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 90 TBF, 37.8% K%
Reid Detmers - 74 TBF, 37.8% K%
Justin Steele - 87 TBF, 34.5% K%
Charlie Morton - 95 TBF, 33.7% K%
Corbin Burnes - 97 TBF, 33.0% K%
Alex Cobb - 95 TBF, 32.6% K%
Gerrit Cole - 98 TBF, 31.6% K%
Robbie Ray - 95 TBF, 31.6% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 99 TBF, 31.3% K%
Yu Darvish - 103 TBF, 31.1% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 90 TBF, 34.4% K-BB%
Justin Steele - 87 TBF, 29.9% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 98 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Reid Detmers - 74 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Lance Lynn - 95 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Charlie Morton - 95 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 103 TBF, 27.2% K-BB%
Shohei Ohtani - 99 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 97 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
Shane Bieber - 105 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 82 TBF, 72.7% GB%
Logan Webb - 110 TBF, 66.2% GB%
Antonio Senzatela - 103 TBF, 63.0% GB%
Chris Bassitt - 108 TBF, 62.8% GB%
Zac Gallen - 91 TBF, 59.3% GB%
Shane Bieber - 105 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Kyle Wright - 78 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Alex Cobb - 95 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 72 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 77 TBF, 55.9% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Corbin Burnes - 97 TBF, 33.0 K%, 7.2 BB%, 54.5% GB%
George Kirby - 66 TBF, 30.3 K%, 3.0 BB%, 52.4% GB%
Jeffrey Springs - 84 TBF, 27.4 K%, 4.8 BB%, 45.6% GB%
Justin Steele - 87 TBF, 34.5 K%, 4.6 BB%, 47.1% GB%
Shane Bieber - 105 TBF, 28.6 K%, 2.9 BB%, 58.3% GB%
Spencer Strider - 59 TBF, 37.3 K%, 6.8 BB%, 48.5% GB%
Yu Darvish - 103 TBF, 31.1 K%, 3.9 BB%, 47.8% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Triston McKenzie - +2.0% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Dean Kremer - +2.3% CSW%, -5.4 BB%
Lance Lynn - +2.7% CSW%, -5.1 BB%
Corey Kluber - +3.1% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Charlie Morton - +4.8% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Austin Voth - +4.1% CSW%, -4.4 BB%
Spenser Watkins - +2.3% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Spencer Strider - +2.0% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Jacob deGrom - +2.7% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Andre Pallante - +2.4% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Nick Fortes (MIA) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Rhys Hoskins (PHI) 6 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Willy Adames (MIL) 5 PA, 14 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Nick Fortes - 4.0 PA - 66.0 JA Points
2. Rhys Hoskins - 6.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
3. Ronald Acuna Jr. - 4.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
4. Kerry Carpenter - 5.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
5. Manny Machado - 5.0 PA - 51.0 JA Points
6. Ryan McKenna - 4.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
7. Joey Gallo - 4.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
8. Garrett Stubbs - 5.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
9. Harold Castro - 5.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
10. Freddie Freeman - 5.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 411.0 PA - 143.26 JA Points
2. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 492.0 PA - 137.64 JA Points
3. Juan Soto (SD) - 492.0 PA - 134.63 JA Points
4. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 509.0 PA - 115.36 JA Points
5. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 472.0 PA - 111.1 JA Points
6. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 382.0 PA - 110.79 JA Points
7. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 271.0 PA - 104.21 JA Points
8. Will Smith (LAD) - 414.0 PA - 102.03 JA Points
9. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 432.0 PA - 100.37 JA Points
10. D.J. LeMahieu (NYY) - 457.0 PA - 99.34 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Byron Buxton (MIN) - 112.5mph - single
Christian Yelich (MIL) - 112.4mph - home_run
Albert Pujols (STL) - 111.9mph - foul
Sean Murphy (OAK) - 111.5mph - home_run
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 111.3mph - home_run
Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 111.3mph - foul
Kevin Padlo (PIT) - 111.2mph - field_out
Rafael Devers (BOS) - 110.7mph - field_out
Rowdy Tellez (MIL) - 110.1mph - double
Joc Pederson (SF) - 109.8mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 81 PA, 42 BIP, 12 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Max Muncy - 67 PA, 40 BIP, 11 Brls, 27.5 Brl%
Paul DeJong - 60 PA, 33 BIP, 9 Brls, 27.3 Brl%
Matt Chapman - 68 PA, 34 BIP, 8 Brls, 23.5 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 61 PA, 37 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Nick Pratto - 65 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Byron Buxton - 57 PA, 29 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.7 Brl%
Chas McCormick - 47 PA, 25 BIP, 5 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 80 PA, 50 BIP, 10 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Jesse Winker - 62 PA, 37 BIP, 7 Brls, 18.9 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 81 PA, 0.485 xwOBA
Alex Bregman - 75 PA, 0.453 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 80 PA, 0.452 xwOBA
Rowdy Tellez - 60 PA, 0.439 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 80 PA, 0.416 xwOBA
Max Muncy - 67 PA, 0.415 xwOBA
Daniel Vogelbach - 65 PA, 0.412 xwOBA
Jake Fraley - 48 PA, 0.410 xwOBA
Byron Buxton - 57 PA, 0.410 xwOBA
Francisco Lindor - 84 PA, 0.409 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
J.P. Crawford - 78 PA, 137 Swings, 93.4 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 74 PA, 130 Swings, 93.1 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 90 PA, 135 Swings, 91.1 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 75 PA, 133 Swings, 91.0 Cont%
Luis Guillorme - 53 PA, 85 Swings, 90.6 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 61 PA, 104 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Yuli Gurriel - 74 PA, 120 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Jose Iglesias - 77 PA, 147 Swings, 89.8 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 70 PA, 118 Swings, 89.0 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 64 PA, 96 Swings, 87.5 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Austin Riley - 85 PA, 18.8 K%, 18.3 Brl%
Christian Walker - 78 PA, 16.7 K%, 17.2 Brl%
J.T. Realmuto - 63 PA, 19.0 K%, 17.4 Brl%
Juan Soto - 80 PA, 12.5 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Nolan Arenado - 67 PA, 14.9 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Seth Brown - 60 PA, 18.3 K%, 15.4 Brl%
Will Smith - 76 PA, 15.8 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Paul Goldschmidt - +3.8% Contact%, +3.1 mph exit velo, -7.6 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Adley Rutschman - 0.375 xwOBA, 10.8% Brl%, 85.9% Contact%, 19.1% Chase%, 16.7% K%
Christian Walker - 0.427 xwOBA, 19.0% Brl%, 80.0% Contact%, 24.0% Chase%, 14.0% K%
Juan Soto - 0.432 xwOBA, 12.5% Brl%, 84.3% Contact%, 16.1% Chase%, 11.7% K%
Paul Goldschmidt - 0.459 xwOBA, 16.2% Brl%, 79.1% Contact%, 19.5% Chase%, 14.5% K%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 0.413 xwOBA, 14.0% Brl%, 80.3% Contact%, 21.7% Chase%, 16.4% K%
Sean Murphy - 0.391 xwOBA, 13.2% Brl%, 78.6% Contact%, 23.1% Chase%, 15.1% K%
Vinnie Pasquantino - 0.421 xwOBA, 14.0% Brl%, 87.7% Contact%, 21.5% Chase%, 9.4% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Josh Bell - 35.6% Whiff%, 83.3% Weak%, 0.957 Cold Rating
Oneil Cruz - 47.7% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.926 Cold Rating
Hunter Dozier - 34.6% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.904 Cold Rating
Aristides Aquino - 35.1% Whiff%, 72.0% Weak%, 0.899 Cold Rating
Bubba Thompson - 30.0% Whiff%, 83.3% Weak%, 0.878 Cold Rating
Max Stassi - 30.3% Whiff%, 80.8% Weak%, 0.877 Cold Rating
Brandon Lowe - 38.6% Whiff%, 68.2% Weak%, 0.873 Cold Rating
Jonathan Schoop - 39.1% Whiff%, 67.9% Weak%, 0.864 Cold Rating
Marcell Ozuna - 36.9% Whiff%, 67.9% Weak%, 0.848 Cold Rating
Eugenio Suarez - 29.8% Whiff%, 74.1% Weak%, 0.845 Cold Rating
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