MLB Data Warehouse - June 17
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis
Check out yesterday’s box scores here
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We have a full rotation piggyback situation on our hands.
So what does that mean exactly? We’ll see. I suppose the theory would be that one of every five starts will be shortened by an inning or so and someone else will come in for 4-5 innings after him? We’ve never seen anything like it before!
It’s a pretty interesting idea, and it’s not something we’ve ever seen before. Two competent SPs covering a full game. You can avoid most of the third trip through the lineup for both guys and completely save the bullpen. I think that’ll work pretty well for the Mariners.
But it’s not something any old team can do. Most MLB teams don’t have even five good MLB starters, and the Mariners probably have seven or eight. I get it - maybe Luis Castillo isn’t good anymore, but he’s not a total disaster and it makes sense for them to get their innings from him as they ride out the end of the contract.
This could all be meaningless to me because I just might be taken away by a Tornado later today. I live just barely outside of that dark red area. So if that bad boy shifts a few miles to the northeast and the weather variance doesn’t go my way, something bad could happen.
Gotta love a little risk and uncertainty in your life, right? Waking up thinking you might die today. That is going to make it feel awesome when I don’t die.
So if this is my last daily notes, I’d like to tell you all one more time that I’ve enjoyed it. It made my last couple of years of life on earth a little bit more fun. But I guess it wasn’t worth it. If I knew I was only going to live until 35, I wouldn’t have bothered with this.
But just in case I survive…
JA DFS UPDATE
Yesterday during the slate preview post I built out two lineups, one for cash and one for tourneys. And then I made a mistake and put the tourney lineup in the double ups and the cash lineup in the $50 tourney I did. Totally backwards.
But you know what? It saved me. The tourney lineup, which I accidentally put into double ups, scored 105.1 points. The cash line was 104-105. So that one got there and I doubled my cash money, which was more than I put in the $50 tourney - and both lineups fell short of the cash line there anyways. So it should have been a full loss, but instead a little profit.
Not that it matters because I don’t think my DraftKings balance comes with me to the mansions in the sky.
Pitchers
Logan Gilbert - 7.0IP 2H 1ER 1R 10K 1BB
There he is! He probably did a few extra deadlifts yesterday to get his back ready to be piggied. And that resulted in a SEASON HIGH TEN STRIKEOUTS.
He used to do that a lot, don’t you know? He had a 13-punchie game last year and three different ten-K outings.
He sent his four-seamer up to the top of the tornado. Season-high 57% usage.
And it cooked those orange birds. 22% SwStr% on it and then he dropped the slider on ‘em for a 21% SwStr%. It was the 135th-best start of the year by the 2026 SP Start Grades.
I often wonder if it’s really worth me spending time in teh daily notes on these SPs who aren’t really relevant to fantasy roster management. Gilbert is effectively 100% started in fantasy leagues, so what good is it for me to tell you how he did?
He’s a really good pitcher and people don’t seem to APPRECIATE the big guy.
And it proves once again the stickiest stat in pitcher analytics - height. He was 6’6’’ in 2021 and that number has held steady, and I project it will stay at 6’6’’ for at least 30 more years.
Drew Rasmussen - 7.0IP 6H 1ER 1R 7K 0BB
Kept it GOING with another 7:0 K:BB in seven strong innings against the Dodgers. The guy is rolling.
But he gave up a home run and took the loss. 24 fantasy points scored in a loss. That was 20th (ish, I don’t wanna count) most fantasy points scored in a loss this year.
I put some filters on that SP START Data tab on the MLB & MiLB Stats Dashboard. And I saw that there was an options for Wins = 2. I thought that was a bug. But no, Chase Shugart won both games of a double header for the Giants against the Phillies on April 30th. That’s efficiency, baby.
Justin Wrobleski - 6.0IP 3H 0ER 0R 5K 0BB
This was the problem for Rasmussen. Another elite box score line for Wrobleski. And a 5:0 K:BB is actually good.
I guess I’ve been wrong about the Wrobo.
He was really lucky early on, but lately he’s been a lot better and the box score results have stayed steady the whole time.
Since May 1st, he has a poor 18% K%, but an elite 3.6% BB% with just six homers given up in eight starts with a .367 SLG allowed. It’s still kind of a high .327 xwOBA… It’s a .257 BABIP allowed. But maybe he’s just like a mini-Max Fried or something. I don’t know, the Dodgers don’t follow the rules.
Davis Martin - 3.33IP 8H 9ER 9R 4K 3BB
Davis Martin convinced us all that he’s good and now he’s given up 15 earned runs in his last three starts to raise his ERA to 3.31. It was 1.99 two weeks ago.
The Yankees took him to town and didn’t pay for dinner.
Is the league figuring him out? Is he tiring out? Or is this just bad luck for a few starts?
Beats me man. I think Martin has earned the right to stay in fantasy starting lineups for awhile longer, but he has just a 17% K% and an 8.5% BB% the last three starts with an 11.8% SwStr% and a 4.23 JA ERA - which isn’t good.
The fastball hasn’t been working. And his Stuff+ has kinda crashed down:
If he were really good last year, we wouldn’t be worried. But he’s never been good before, and that makes you wonder if he wasn’t just completely faking us out for a couple of months to start this year.
But still, a 19% K-BB% with a .302 xwOBA allowed for the year. Those are very good numbers.
Robert Gasser - 5.67IP 2H 0ER 0R 5K 2BB
This was a good call by me, and 70% of DFS cash players last night. Gasser was way too cheap. But he probably should have been started in fantasy leagues too.
He faced the JRamless Guardians - and that’s a really, really weak lineup.
Gasser is no ace. He has a 22% K% this year in the bigs with a 12.8% SwStr%. But I think he’s good enough to stick in the rotation.
And the Brewers turn these types of lower-stuff dudes into very good pitchers all the time. They’ve done wonders with Kyle Harrison, and I kinda believe in the Gas-man.
MLB DW grades of 105+ on four different pitches. He’s just tough to hit. The high FB% makes you nervous without having a ton of whiffs, but he’s someone to consider adding in your 12+ team leagues.
Edward Cabrera - 4.33IP 3H 5ER 5R 3K 2BB
E-Cab messing up in good matchup, have you heard that story before? I’m pretty sure the guy just stinks. That’s been pretty clear for years, but every once in awhile he’ll dominate for a few weeks and get people back on the train.
People don’t seem to forget about former prospect hype. Cabrera was supposed to be very good and that keeps everybody thinking he’s just like one adjustment away from acedom. But I don’t think he is.
He also got hurt last night. I bought in on him in the home league for this good two-start week and I played in one of my DFS lineups last night. And I’d be kicking myself for both of those decisions if I wasn’t about to die anyways. Why linger on things like this in my final day of life?
Gerrit Cole - 6.0IP 3H 2ER 2R 6K 2BB
Nothing overwhelming here, but six strong innings with a 6:2 K:BB. The fastball velo came back down:
I thought he might have been building back up to sitting 97, but not last night. Sitting 96 is fine too especially when you have a good slider and you know how to pitch. So Cole is fine, he’s just not an SP1 any longer.
Hunter Brown - 5.67IP 3H 1ER 1R 7K 3BB
92 pitches and I’d say he looked mostly like himself.
He had no fastball command with a 53% Ball%. But that should get tidied up as he gets back into the swing of things, and he didn’t get hit hard at all last night.
Brown pisses me off, personally. He has that arm tattoo arm sleeve which I’ve never liked. But that’s just a personal preference; it doesn’t actually change anything in my projection model. I stand firmly against manually changing projections because a guy has tattoos. I’m very, very open-minded in that regard.
Brown’s a SP2 in fantasy leagues at worst. And now he has a 2.29 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP since last year with a 21.5 K-BB%. I can’t argue against that, I just don’t like that he doesn’t get a ton of whiffs and gets behind in counts too often.
Jesus Luzardo - 7.0IP 5H 2ER 2R 9K 2BB
He’s still doing that up-and-down thing:
He’s a frustrating guy to own, but a 19% K-BB% this year with a 0.95 HR/9; he’s been mostly good. THere’s only been one bad starts in his last seven.
3.09 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 26% K%, 7% BB%, 0.93 HR/9 in his last ten.
Zebby Matthews - 7.0IP 8H 2ER 2R 4K 0BB
He doesn’t have it. It’s a 14% K-BB% now with a 4.31 JA ERA. The nastiness isn’t there and he gives up a 32% FB%. The heater is down 1.8mph from last year. It’s not going to happen for the Zebster, which is sad because I had a real love affair with that guy.
Kodai Senga - 4.0IP 2H 4ER 4R 5K 4BB
Gave up a quick three-run job to Sal Stewart in the first and walked four on a 44% Ball%. Welcome back, Senga! The fastball velo did stay at 96, which is higher than last year. He’ll have some good starts, but all we’ve seen from him is injuries and volatility. Not a good guy to have in your fantasy leagues.
Payton Tolle - 5.0IP 4H 3ER 3R 6K 2BB
He just can’t really put it all together. Ten whiffs in this one, not a good 11.1% SwStr%. But he pounds the zone like few others with a 31% Ball% last night. I still think he’s really good. But if he’s a good pitcher, then why doesn’t he pitch good? That’s a tweaked quote from Moneyball.
He gave up two solo homers last night. And you can forgive that stuff. It happens. His K% for the yaer is 25.4% and the BB% is 6.8%. Good; not great. He’s given up just five homers even after the pair last night.
Look at these pitch grades though:
128 on the four-seamers, 123 on the cutter. I guess the sinker isn’t working, and he hasn’t shown a ton of confidence in the new curveball - although it’s been really good when he’s used it.
He’s a work in progress, but I’d still be happy to start him in a 12-team league.
Reid Detmers - 7.0IP 3H 0ER 0R 3K 0BB
Just four whiffs! But seven clean innings and no walks. Detmers is good. I just have to feel like a few blowups are coming, and who knows how long he can sustain stuff since he was in the bullpen last year and only threw 64 innings.
It might be a good time to sell Detmers if you can.
Foster Griffin - 6.0IP 6H 1ER 1R 6K 2BB
He keeps being decent:
I really thought he’d have fallen off the table by now. The kitchen sink approach can work, but usually not for super long.
That’s a seven-pitch mix, with none of them being anything special.
He’s like a lefty Seth Lugo I guess. A 3.32 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and a 16% K-BB%. He’s fine. More of a 15-team league guy than a 12-teamer, but he’s been what the Nats have needed this year.
Griffin + Cavalli + Irvin have been pretty decent by K-BB%. Irvin is hurt now. None of these guys are really top-of-the-rotation arms, but they’ve done enough to keep the Nationals in the Wild Card Race at 39-35.
Michael King - 4.33IP 5H 3ER 3R 1K 3BB
Just A bad one from King. Four whiffs, one strikeouts, three walks.
His last five: 12% K%, 92% BB%, .405 xwOBA. That’s bad. I’d be downgrading King pretty heavily.
He doesn’t have a great whiff pitch and he has a 9-10% BB% pretty consistently.
What I would do for him is learn to throw a 104mph four-seam fastball. I bet that would help.
Hitters
The 25+ point club:
Bryan Reynolds has been so good this year. Four hits, two dingers last night. This is his best season since 2021.
He’s added 150 points to his OPS from last year. Here’s everybody with at least +100 this year from last year:
It is just what the Pirates needed, but they’re doing their best to screw it all up.
Somehow he’s walking 15% of the time. He’s made that change by holding the bat on his shoulder more. He swung 49.5% of the time last year and has dropped that to 44% this year. And he’s raised his Z-Contact% four points while doing that.
I had him as a big time “Buy Low” target in drafts this year.
Don’t click on that article, though. If you do, you’ll find that I also recommended
Austin Riley
Yainer Diaz
Marcus Semien
But there were some nice hits in that one in addition to Reynolds
Goldschmidt
Albies
Harper
Harris II
Basically what you can do as a fantasy writer is just randomly pick players and you’ll typically be right about 50% of the time. And then you can just brag about that 50% and ignore the other 50%.
TWO TRIPLES for Nasim Nunez. He has three steals in his last four games. He still has zero homers and a .212 batting average, but he does have 26 steals and 30 runs scored. So he’s doing some things well. I still think he’s mostly a losing fantasy player. Zero homers and a low batting average is tough to recover from, but I have to shout out the double-triple game. You don’t see that very often.
TRIPLES LEADERS 2026
Carroll 8
Arraez 6
Edwards 4
PCA 4
Simpson 4
Bellinger 3
Taveras 3
Lopez 3
Garcia JR. 3
McCarthy 3
Perdomo 3
Nunez 3
Stott 3
Lile 3
Marsee 3
McGonigle 3
Zack Gelof kept it going. Three hits and a homer there.
Buddy has an .835 OPS now with 10 homers and eight steals in 208 PAs.
He played at a 56 HR+SB pace.
That’s pretty sick. With the 25% K% and .286 batting average, he’s clearly a must-start dude for the A’s, and he’s probably a must-start in fantasy leagues as well with this kind of HR + SB pace going on.
There has been LUCK:
A .223 xBA with a .289 xwOBA. That’s frightening. And his zone contact is very bad at 75%. So we could see this all crash and burn.
He’s one of the luckiest hitters of the last 30 days:
But the xwOBA does not consider park factors. So you’ll see guys playing in these small ballparks disfavored in this calculation. I mean, there are three Athletics on that list. The six Vegas games are a large part of a month long sample, and they aren’t going back there - but Sacramento is a very friendly place to be and Gelof seems to do very well there.
George Springer hit a homer. Is he getting back anywhere near 2025 form?
He’s right back to where he left off in 2024 with an OPS below .700. That 2025 season looks like a total outlier. But he did have an injury this year to muddy up the waters.
Since returning from the IL:
Pretty good stuff there! 16% K%, 14% BB%, .359 xwOBA, four homers, 9.4% Brl%.
Time to face the ‘Nado! I’ll update you tomorrow if I make it. If there are no daily notes tomorrow, you’ll know what happened.