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A seven-game slate tonight.
Game Data
Twins vs. JT Ginn
6.03 implied, +1.52 above average
One more game in Sacramento for the Twins, and they get their first righty of the series. Ginn has a 3.73 ERA at home with a 1.46 WHIP. An 18% K%, 11.5% BB%, but a nice 0.75 HR/9 at home and 0.95 overall. He’s a ground ball guy, so he’s not a total blowup candidate.
I wanted to look more at the Sacramento park factor. Sometimes you’ll see home run parks being worse for other types of hits since the smaller outfields can turn some singles/doubles into outs. That doesn’t seem to be the case here.
This year, Sacramento has the highest BABIP (which excludes homers) at .320. It has the second-highest HR/FB as well. So it all works there. It also has the highest batting average on line drives at .664. All kinds of batted balls are boosted in this park. I did not expect that.
So it doesn’t matter that much that Ginn limits fly balls. Play some Twins tonight.
Blue Jays vs. Randy Dobnak
5.04 implied, +1.12 above average
Dobnak still has a super low ERA, and the Blue Jays don’t have a good lineup. But just play the numbers, man. Dobnak has a 14.8% K% with a 1.40 WHIP. He’s not good. He’s just somehow generated a 7% HR/FB. He doesn’t give up many fly balls in the first place (55% GB%), but come on!! His SIERA is fourth-worst of all pitchers starting today (4.35 JA SIERA). It can’t continue like this!
That said, I don’t blame anybody for not wanting to play the Blue Jays in any sort of spot. They managed just three runs last night against Seth Lugo and this same crappy KC bullpen.
Brewers vs. Robert Stock
5.08 implied, +0.15 above average
Stock has a 23.5% K% in the bigs so far. So he has some stuff (101 Stuff+). He’s one of these pitch modeling guys. I think he’s intentionally refined his pitches to get higher Stuff+ scores. You could argue about whether or not that’s wise, but we won’t find out much from Stock because he can’t command the stuff. He has a 37.4% Ball%, 13.6% BB%, and .771 OPS against. Not good.
Those are the three above a five-run implication. Others of interest:
Yankees vs. Peter Lambert
Dodgers vs. AJ Smith-Shawver
Orioles vs. Michael McGreevy