MLB DFS Slate Breakdown - August 14
Massive [free] breakdown of the Friday night DFS slate
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Weather
Ten-game slate, and no weather concerns. We’re in the clear for this beautiful Friday night in the US of A. I guess there’s a game in Canada, so shout-out to Canada too, I guess.
Game Data
It’s a low projected run-scoring night. Nobody is above 5.3 implied runs, although that could change. There are five spots standing above the rest in raw implication:
Braves vs. Brandon Pfaadt
Very interesting spot here. Pfaadt has made eight starts since getting back in the Arizona rotation. And he has a 1.32 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP. That’s the good news, and we’re hoping it will take down the ownership on the Braves. I say that because the underlying stuff is bad:
12.4% K%
3.8% BB%
3% HR/FB
Pfaadt has long had trouble with left handed power, but somehow he’s managed to only give up one homer in these eight starts. The GB% is fine (47%), but the 3% HR/FB is totally fake and presents a great spot to buy in on some Braves left-handed power. That’s mainly Drake Baldwin and Matt Olson.
Maybe Pfaadt has found some secret formula to keep the hard hit balls out of the air. He’s allowed just a 10% Air Pull% during this stretch and a .244 xwOBA. He has consistently missed hard contact. But that’s not something we want to rely on as predictive. I think it could unravel for Pfaadt, and the markets like the Braves here a lot relative to the rest of the slate.
Athletics vs. Kumar Rocker
Rocker is a blow-up risk, but he also goes out there from time to time and dominates with his slider. It’s a risky spot in Sacramento with his 36% GB%, there are multiple homers on the table in this spot.
But who is going to hit them for the Athletics? They don’t hit fly balls. Only Soderstrom has a good xwOBA against righties this year:
I like Soderstrom and Butler as one-offs, but this lineup just doesn’t seem to have stack-worthy upside right now.
Rays vs. Chris Bassitt
The return of Bassitt! He hasn’t been seen in the Majors since June 3rd. He had a 5.27 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 14% K%, and 8% BB% before getting hurt. He does not appear to be good. He built up to six innings in his rehab, so the Rays should see a good bit of him.
The problem for DFS is that the prices are through the roof after the Rays played a couple series in Colorado and Sacramento.
Yandy’s $5.3K, Caminero $6.3K, Aranda $4.5K, Hicks $4.3K, Simpson $4.1K, Mullins $4.5K. These aren’t good prices in a game in Tampa Bay. But Bassitt is one of the more hittable pitchers on the slate, so I can get into some Rays minis.
Dodgers vs. Robert Gasser
Another big NL showdown in LA. The Dodgers are a -193 favorite behind Yamamoto. The O/U is just 7.5.
Gasser has been serviceable for the Brewers, because nobody is allowed to pitch bad on that team. 17.1% K-BB%, .311 xwOBA, 5.7% Brl% since June 1st. Not a great stack spot for the Dodgers
Rangers vs. Jump
Jump’s game log is a doozy.
He’s coming off of two pretty good starts in a row now. He didn’t give up a homer in his first six starts, and then gave up seven in his next five starts, and now he hasn’t given up any in his last three starts.
Typical rookie pitcher with questionable command. It’s boom-or-bust. I don’t think it’s a spot to stack the Rangers a ton, but you can mix in some of those. Good news for Texas is that the Athletics have the worst bullpen on the slate by the way I grade it:
The Rangers are healthy and in pretty good offensive form right now, I’ll like a few guys, but I don’t want to go crazy on stacking against Jump, because he can be very good.
Let’s sort it by implied total above season-average run scoring:
Angels vs. Seth Lugo
Bad offense, bad pitcher. Tough spot to choose. Lugo’s given up 12 bombs in his last 12 starts and has a 7.7% K-BB%. The Angels lineup doesn’t have much juice, but they offer some value.
Meckler/Schanuel/Ballesteros are interesting, and I don’t think we’ll get much ownership on the upside of Trout & Neto.
Royals vs. Grayson Rodriguez
Really bad Royals lineup against G-Rod who has pitched pretty well his last three starts.
It’s not great stuff, but he’s not the same dude he was early in the year when he wasn’t getting strikeouts and getting hit extremely hard.
He has still gotten hit hard in these last four starts (.407 xwOBA, 5 HR). I like the one-offs from KC like Jensen and Witt. And there’s some value in Massey/Perez/Collins as well:
Mets vs. Andrew Alvarez
About 75-80 pitches coming from Alvarez if things go decently well, and the Mets with their pretty hot offense get to face a bad bullpen. And Alvarez isn’t great in his own right.
4.3% K-BB%, 4.69 JA SIERA. I’ve been on the Mets a lot lately, and I will be back there tonight.
Not a lot to like in the Nats bullpen, although they do rank outside of the bottom five tonight.
Yankees vs. Shane Bieber
This would be a stack spot if the Yankees had Judge and the regulars. But they don’t, and they haven’t scored runs in a long time.
Bieber has been mostly bad this year. 4.6% K-BB%, 44% GB%, .398 xwOBA allowed.
But it’s another spot where you just don’t know which Yankees players to push, and they’re on the road here with the Blue Jays having a decent bullpen.
A couple more that the projections like:
Nationals vs. Robert Stock
Stock has been forced into the Mets rotation and he just got absolutely trucked by the Pirates in his last start.
There are worse pitchers. At least he can get whiffs, but a 37% GB% with the .360 xwOBA show that he can give up the dinger. The Nats, somehow, haven’t missed a beat offensively with Wood out, and they have some cheap guys swinging good bats right now.
Abimelec Ortiz should be popular tonight. He’s hitting bombs daily lately and remains at $2300. Great play there. The rest of the lineup is hard to get excited about. I do like Jacob Young even though he’s hitting 9th, and CJ Abrams has been one of the best fantasy bats in the league since he got hot again in July.
Mariners vs. Peter Lambert
Just some cheap bats here in the Seattle lineup, and the M’s always get a boost when outside of Seattle. But Lambert has been pretty good.
14.2% K-BB%, 3.64 JA SIERA. He’s fine. The projections like the prices on the Mariners, but how often have they come through as a full stack? Not often, right?
The prices on Young, Canzone, Naylor, and Donovan are just too cheap to me.
So it’s a tough night for stacking. No individual spot really stands out. Here’s where I’m landing:
Braves vs. Pfaadt
Mets vs. Alvarez
Rays vs. Bassitt
Rangers vs. Jump
Yankees vs. Bieber
But there are a lot of different ways you can go tonight. With no team standing out on the implication board, I think it’s reasonable to avoid the full stacks tonight and just play a bunch of the best plays from different spots.
Pitchers
Studs
Ordering this screenshot by price:
Chris Sale ($10,700) at home is a cash spot. Top value of these stud pitchers at 1.9x. The D’Backs make a lot of contact, but they do most of their damage at home:
Just a .678 OPS on the road with a significantly higher K%. Sale is probably my SP1 tonight.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($10,500) vs. MIL
The Brewers are middle-of-the-road offense, all things considered. They don’t hit homers, their K% is middling. So Yamamoto is fine.
Yamamoto lacks upside, though. He hasn’t had more than seven strikeouts in his last five starts and has just a 23.8% K% on the year. He’s a floor play rather than a ceiling play.
I don’t really get the high ownership on him. I like Sale a lot better, and he’s well behind Gavin Williams in projection, too.
Gavin Williams ($10,200) vs. SD
Padres since July 1st has been a very good lineup. A K% below 20%, a .768 OPS (.780 vs. righties).
Merrill, France, Tatis, and Rengifo have been very good, and Machado and Cronenworth aren’t slouches either.
Tough spot for Williams, but he does have a freaking 36% K% and 6.3% BB% in his last 12 starts. It would be better if this game were in San Diego where we aren’t afraid of the long ball, but it’s in Cleveland. It’s far from an ideal spot for Williams, but you can’t leave off a guy with this kind of strikeout ability.
Gerrit Cole $9,700 vs. TOR
Not a good strikeout spot for Cole. This Blue Jays lineup makes so much contact. Their lineup averages out to a sub-17% K%. That’s as low as you’ll typically find in the Majors.
I have just a 4.8-strikeout projection on Cole. The prop is at 4.5, so that tells you something as well. Cole can get through seven innings and win, like Tolle did last night, but it’s not a good spot at all for his ceiling because strikeouts are so important on DraftKings.
Mid Range
Here are the $7000-$9500 options, ordered by projection:
Gage Jump ($7,000) vs. Rangers
I’ve got Jump for 16.5 points, The Bat X has him at 15.4. So we both agree he’s well above a 2x projection here. The risk is that he has a bad home run game at home, which he’s at a couple of. But generally, he’s been pretty good. He’s gone 10 of 14 starts without giving up a homer, and his HR/9% is under 0.9 for the year.
Plus he has some strikeout upside. We’ve seen that lately. This Texas lineup can strike out:
This is a sneaky, sneaky spot to use Jump in. Limit it to tourneys, but I’m pretty interested here at low ownership.
Peter Lambert ($9000) vs. Mariners
Hefty price for Lambert. Not as much strikeout in the M’s lineup with having sent Colt Emerson back down. Raleigh is the only very high K% (against rightie) in this spot. With the studs we have $1-$2K above in price, I don’t see much reason to use a lot of Lambert. I don’t see the ceiling being there to justify the price.
Landen Roupp ($7500) vs. Rockies
Roupp at home against the Rockies. That’s about as good as it gets for Roupp.
More strikeouts at home, a lower ERA, a much lower WHIP. It’s not a good Rockies lineup, especially away from home.
I could see using Roupp even in cash if there was an expensive stack we really liked. I don’t think that’s the right move tonight, but Roupp in tourneys is pretty strong.
The rest of this group projects very poorly and I have no good reason to play any of them. George Kirby is on the road, Gasser up against the Rockies with a potential quick hook, Pfaadt massively over-performing and up agains the top implied run total. Michael King in a spot where he’ll struggle to even get four strikeouts.
Cheap Options
Looking for those punt options down here.
We have three options in my view. I’d order them like this:
Grayson Rodriguez ($5,700) vs. KC
Last three outings: 15 points vs. HOU, 21 points vs. BAL, 14 points vs. MIA
Nothing you have to have, but good returns at $5700. And this is a very soft matchup with the Royals. That said, the Royals have a lower team K% at 19%:
I think Grayson is a mass entry mix-in when going to some expensive bats at best. There’s nobody threatening for cash consideration down here, not even close. But I do like that we’ve seen 6+ strikeouts from Grayson in each of the last three and the fastball velo has trended upward to make sense of that.
Kyle Freeland ($5,500) vs. SF
Somehow this guy has been worse on the road. 7.81 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. I’m not sure why we’d ever consider him, but he is in the nut spot in San Fran.
Plus he has five starts at 20+ points this year, so he has potential 4x upside if things all go perfectly. But at the end of the day, I don’t think it’s super wise. I’d rather play Grayson, I think. The Giants for all of their problems don’t strike out a ton. I think like 14 points is a best-case for Freeland here.
Seth Lugo ($6,900) vs. LAA
The Angels always bring some SP ownership with them. It’s probably the worst lineup on the slate.
But is Lugo good enough to take advantage? He has had two pretty good starts in his last four.
But he has a 10% K-BB% on the year with an 18% K%.
I have him for 13.2 points; The Bat has him at 14.0. That would be fine for the price; he’s another guy you could use if you’re loading up on bats.
Kumar Rocker ($6,500) vs. ATH
The Athletics are a bad lineup, and we’ve seen pitchers beat them badly. Rocker is in a rough patch right now, but we know the kind of strikeout upside he has when the slider is really cooking, and he’s sneaking the [bad] fastball in there.
He has thrown 75, 88, 88, and 69 pitches in his last four. So he’s likely going to come in under 90 pitches here. He has three starts of 7+ strikeouts, and this is a good matchup to have another one of those days, but overall I don’t want to use him in this park. He’s not reliable at all, and I’m kinda doubting the upside since he is basically a one-pitch guy.
Cash Pitchers
Chris Sale $10,700 vs. ARI
Yoshinobu Yamamoto $10,500 vs. MIL
Gavin Williams $10,200 vs. SD
I think we should just find a way to get two of those guys in there. There are decent mid-range options, but nobody truly jumping off the page. The way to play cash is to take as little risk as possible at SP.
Sale’s the lock for me, and I guess I like Williams for $300 less than Yamamoto given the 1.5-point higher projection.
Tourney Pitchers
Chris Sale $10,700 vs. ARI
Gavin Williams $10,200 vs. SD
Gage Jump $7,000 vs. TEX
Landen Roupp $7,500 vs. COL
Grayson Rodriguez $5,700 vs. KC
Seth Lugo $6,900 vs. LAA
Kumar Rocker $6,500 vs. ATH
Hitters
A reminder about my stack list:
Braves vs. Pfaadt
Mets vs. Alvarez
Rays vs. Bassitt
Rangers vs. Jump
Yankees vs. Bieber
Let’s go position by position!
Catchers
I’ll sort by play score to narrow the pool in this 20-team slate. This is a combination of projection, value, and ceiling.
Drake Baldwin is my favorite play against Pfaadt. But maybe we don’t have the money for that.
Moises Ballesteros $2,800 is in play against Lugo, the model really, really likes him in this spot.
Carter Jensen $4,700 vs. Grayson Rodriguez has all kinds of home run potential, but he’s expensive for a guy in a bad lineup.
Salvador Perez $3,400 remains very cheap, but has a .628 OPS this year and a .197 average on the road.
I like Francisco Alvarez $3,400 for cheap home run upside.
CASH OPTIONS: BALDWIN & BALLESTEROS
First Base
Real hard to get away from Abimelec Ortiz tonight at $2300. Should be hitting #2 against Robert Stock and a bad bullpen.
Shohei Ohtani $6,400 isn’t right tonight for cash. Gasser is a tougher lefty and the Brewers have that good bullpen.
Matt Olson $5,200 is my favorite upper-price play against Pfaadt, but we are betting on Pfaadt regressing a lot in a hurry in the lack of hard contact stuff we talked about with him.
Josh Naylor $3,300 is really cheap and that turns into a 2.55x value proposition.
So Ortiz/Olson/Naylor are my favorite plays, and Ben Rice $5,900 should probably get some tourney love.
CASH PLAY: ABIMELEC ORTIZ
Second Base
Jazz Chisholm $4,500 has loads of upside with his power and speed, but he hasn’t converted that upside very often this year. The matchup is good with Bieber, but it’d be better if this game were in New York.
Jose Tena $2,900 is the value play if truly hitting #3. Robert Stock is not one to be afraid of.
Cole Young $3,300 is a similar play to Tena. Not a ton of upside, but hitting up there in the lineup and very cheap.
Another punt play not pictured is Jorge Polanco $2,200, but he looks totally busted.
Jeff McNeil $3,200 might lead off against Kumar Rocker. That would be pretty nice. And he’s got a .272 xBA this year and a .740 OPS since July 1st. But just one homer on a 1.3% Brl%.
Thee’s really no play to like at the position. Chisholm is the top projection, but it might make sense to punt it with Tena/McNeil.
CASH PLAY: JEFF MCNEIL
Third Base
Pretty gross position here, too. Only Jose Ramirez and Junior Caminero are above nine points, and they’re both expensive in less than great spots.
Bo Bichette $4,300 is a reasonable play in this good spot for the Mets. He has slugged .455 against lefties this year, and he’ll get a couple of cracks against Andrew Alvarez and then the Nats bullpen.
The punt values:
Angel Genao $2,400
Jorbit Vivas $2,700
Brendan Donovan $2,900
CASH PLAY: BO BICHETTE, JOSE RAMIREZ
Shortstop
Not a good value on Witt at $6,000, but he and CJ Abrams are the top plays on the board if you have the cash.
Francisco Lindor $4,500 has a near nine-point projection with a 2x value, that’s the kind of thing we like. I like the Mets on this slate, so I might go to Bichette + Lindor in cash if I can’t afford Witt or Abrams.
Some punts:
Jim Jarvis $2,600
George Lombard Jr. $3,100
Nasim Nunez $3,500
It’s a pretty light day for hitting in the infield. Nobody is really standing out.
Outfield
AJ Ewing has a .721 OPS with seven homers and 15 steals. If he’s leading off, he’s another Met to add to the short list.
Ronald Acuna Jr. has gotten it going in August. Four bombs, .868 OPS, so he’s looking like himself again. $5,700 though!
Christian Franklin $2,000 is projected to lead off for the Orioles. He hit six homers and stole 17 bags in 426 PAs in the minors with a 25% K% and 15% BB%. So my model is clearly too hot on him, but a $2K lead off hitter is always interesting. Let’s check his fScores:
Fine across the board in the minors, but no tool to hold onto. If he’s truly leading off, it’s a fine punt, but you can’t expect much. This isn’t a true MLB prospect.
Mike Trout $5,300 against Lugo is pretty juicy.
Yordan Alvarez $6,500 is tough to play with the Astros not doing much around him, and Kirby isn’t the best matchup, although it is better for the hitters when the game’s outside of Seattle. Not going to get to him in cash, but he’s always a decent one-off, and the ownership should be low.
Wyatt Langford $4,900 is the best play on the Rangers, but the projections aren’t too into any of these guys.
Luis Robert Jr. $3,500 is a cheap Met with power. But it hasn’t materialized much this year with a 5.5% Brl%.
Some other higher-priced options I’m seeing:
Jac Caglianone $5,000
Tyler Soderstrom $5,500
Both a little too pricey, but big upside plays.
Mid range options:
Michael Harris $4,500
Chandler Simpson $4,100
Daylen Lile $4,200
Punts:
Christian Franklin $2,000
Josh Lowe $2,400
Spencer Jones $3,200
Brett Bateman $2,700
Isaac Collins $3,000
Wade Meckler $3,200
Steven Kwan $3,100
Zac Veen $2,300
CASH LINEUP ROUGH DRAFT
I suppose this is a risky bet on a low-scoring game in Sacramento. I just don’t love the matchups in that game. I do get some Mets and Braves. It would go haywire if Christian Franklin isn’t leading off, which is very possible.
But we’ll massage this thing as the lineups come out.
One way to free up a bunch of salary is to use Landen Roupp, who the Bat X really loves tonight.
I’d rather get two of the stud SPs, but we’ll see what happens! Maybe some extra Rangers stacks in tourneys to easen the burden if that game ruins my cash lineup.
GOOD LUCK out there tonight! Drop a like and a comment here if you read this whole thing, always good to get the validation that people are still reading this thing.. this one took me a few hours.