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Weather
There’s some rain in the forecast, but nothing that looks like a legitimate PPD risk. So we can move forward without worrying about that.
Game Info
It’s a seven-game Monday slate. And there is one RUNAWAY spot with the Dodgers going into Coors Field to face Tomoyuki Sugano.
They are almost two runs above the rest of the slate. So it’s a “don’t overthink it” night. Just play a bunch of Dodgers and don’t worry about the ownership. No other spot is in the same zip code here.
The second spot to know about is the Royals at home against Marson Barnett and a beaten-down Athletics squad. Barnett has a 21.7% K% with an 11.4% BB%. But a 9.8% SwStr% and a low 35% GB%. The JA SIERA is 4.12. This isn’t the worst pitcher in the league, but he’s a bad one. Key point to make - this game’s in Kansas City. So it’s not a dream spot for the Royals, who have not scored many runs this year.
The projections and the implied total likes them here. They are a reasonable team to stack with the Dodgers. But you’ll be looking at the value guys in the KC lineup since you have to pay all of that cash for the Dodgers.
Sal Perez $3300
Nick Loftin $3100
Michael Massey $3600
Isaac Collins $3000
John Rave $3200
Kyle Isbel $2500
The Red Sox are the third team implying well above their season average. They’re at home against a lefty, Mitch Bratt.
The prices are high on the Red Sox though as they’ve done very well this summer. But they aren’t priced out of play.
Sogard $3100
Rafaela $4500
Contreras $4700
Durbin $3500
Those are my four favorites hitting from the right side and being reasonably priced.
The Braves (4.99 implied, +.26) and Cubs (4.94, -0.28) are the other teams near a five-run implication. Atlanta sees Bailey Ober, which is a nice spot, and the Cubs have Luis Castillo. Two veteran fly ball pitchers against two pretty good lineups.
So those are the five offenses to focus on. I’d order them like this:
Dodgers
Braves
Royals
Red Sox
Cubs
Pitchers
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