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Are we learning that we cannot trust the studs in late August? Chase Burns and Zack Wheeler both sucked last night as the highest priced pitchers, and Parker Messick did not exactly smash in his elite matchup.
I don’t believe in macro narratives like this. Everybody is different. You haven’t seen Jacob Misiorowsk or Cam Schlittler struggling lately, but it does speak to how important it is to pay for stud pitchers that are actually going to pitch like studs.
So that’s your DFS lesson of the day - make sure you don’t pay big money for pitchers who don’t do well!
Weather
No issues again. It’s a week of west coast games, which is annoying when you live in east coast time and want to actually watch some of your DFS players play. But it’s good for not having to worry about rain.
Game Info
It’s a 12-game slate. There is one time implied near/above six runs (depending on where you look):
Twins vs. Gage Jump
Implied: 5.97 runs, +1.47 above average
Jump is better than Springs. He is a tougher pitcher to hit out of the park. He’s given up just nine homers in 16 starts. That’s good. The rest of it isn’t so good. 4.94 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 24.4% K%, 11.1% BB%. His GB% is just 41%, so pitching at home is very risky, and it’s another lefty the Twins will throw 7+ righties at.
It’s a good spot for the Twins, but not as good as last night in my opinion.
A couple teams near five runs:
Dodgers vs. Bryce Elder
5.07 implied runs, +0.21 over average
The projections don’t love the Dodgers tonight against Elder, but they’re #2 in implied runs. Elder is a soft tossing righty, so Ohtani + Freeman + Muncy have loads of upside in this spot. But Elder has been mostly fine this year. He’s had a nice season and has good enough command to more than survive in these spots.
Yankees vs. Ethan Pecko
4.96 implied runs, +0.60 above average
He made a start for the Astros last week, throwing 3.2 innings against the Angels and scoring 8.7 fantasy points on four strikeouts and three walks. In the minors, he posted a 4.57 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP on a 24.6% K% and 8% BB%.
More from the minors:
24% sinker usage (93.6mph)
24% 4-seam usage (94.5mph)
12.5% SwStr%
3.31 JA SIERA
16.6% K-BB%
44% GB%
7 HR in 82.2 IP (0.76 HR/9)
Looks like a guy who won’t do well in the Majors.
The Yankees have just been terrible. A .660 team OPS since July 1st, .669 in August. But there are plays you can make here against Pecko and the Astros bullpen.
One more spot to cover:
Blue Jays vs. Seth Lugo
4.71 implied runs, +0.76 above average
It’s over for Lugo. He has a 4.71 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP on a 10.5% K-BB% this year for the Royals. He’s given up 5, 3, 5, and 5 runs in his last four outings, and that’s while giving up only one homer.
Lugo can still do that - limit homers. 0.99 HR/9 this year; that’s not bad at all. But he’s very easy to make contact against, and the Blue Jays are one of the best lineups in the league at making contact. So the floor is pretty good for the Blue Jays here; they’ll rack up some hits unless they’re very unlucky.
Some more spots to consider, even though the implied totals aren’t that big:
Cubs vs. Brandon Pfaadt
Pfaadt has a super low K% but has avoided hard contact like few others I’ve ever seen. It’s not a good spot for him, he projects for just 9.7 points, and the Cubs are a stackable offense
Royals vs. Max Scherzer
You really only want to use the lefties here, and the Royals don’t have a ton of those in terms of high-upside lefty bats, but Scherzer is without answers against southpaw hitters.
Cardinals vs. Chris Bassitt
Lots of old SPs on this slate are just barely holding onto their MLB careers. Bassitt has a 6.5% K-BB% this year in 67.1 innings.