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Weather
All clear!
Game Data
Big old 12-game slate for Friday. Let’s take this in some chunks.
Braves vs. Sugano
6.21 implied, +1.62 above average
The Braves host this one, so it’s a little surprising to see the implied total so high. That’s a Coors number. But it does speak to just how bad Sugano is.
Twins vs. Luis Castillo
4.99 implied, +0.43
Look at the gap here! 1.2 runs down to the second-highest implication. Castillo is hittable, but he’s not the worst pitcher in the league. The Twins have hit righties pretty well this year with a .735 team OPS, and they’re a healthy bunch right now with Buxton and Jeffers back and some other dudes like Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, and Luke Keaschall doing pretty well. It’s a fine spot, doesn’t feel like an elite stacking spot to me, though.
Orioles vs. Jacob Lopez
4.93 implied, +0.93
We should not want to stack against Lopez right now. He’s been awesome for a couple of months; we’ve talked a lot about that. But he’s a fly ball pitcher in Sacramento, and I have serious doubts he can keep limiting homers in these home starts. Fine spot for Alonso, Mayo, CES, but I’m hesitant to stack Orioles like crazy.
Brewers vs. Cody Bradford
4.82 implied, -0.19
Bradford throws a bunch of strikes and doesn’t get whiffs. So the Brewers will be able to play their game here. Play some small ball, score some runs. They are #3 in projection on this slate, and they’re a pretty nice five-man stack since they typically work together to have their big games.
Blue Jays vs. Emerson Hancock
4.16 implied, +0.29 above average
It’s a pretty weak offensive slate by the implications. Hancock’s on the road here, which is definitely a good spot for the Jays. It can go real bad for these non-Gilbert Mariners away from home. The Blue Jays have been popular for us this week. We just don’t get big games from them. The way to attack with them is by taking the super cheap young guys Bateman, McAdooo, Lukes, and others.
Guardians vs. Michael Wacha
4.24 implied, +0.19 above average
Cleveland is rolling right now, winners of seven in a row. They are still not crushing the ball in that span, but they have a lineup full of competent hitters and they put a lot of pressure on opposing pitchers.
Other spots that I like that aren’t implied very high:
White Sox vs. Dean Kremer: These guys do work against righties, and Kremer is a bad one. I’m really surprised at this 4.17-run implication. I’d love to stack some White Sox tonight.
Pirates vs. Quinn Mathews: The guy is a blow-up threat. The command isn’t there. You don’t love betting on the Pirates, but they could put up a crooked number or two if Mathews doesn’t have the touch.
Royals vs. Tanner Bibee: The Royals are rolling. Caglianone, Witt, and Pasquantino are all looking awesome, and there are cheap bats around them too. I like this spot for the Royals.
FAVORITE STACKS
Braves vs. Sugano
White Sox vs. Kremer
Royals vs. Bibee
Twins vs. Castillo
Orioles vs. Lopez
Pitchers
Dylan Cease ($11,500) vs. SEA
21.96 projected, 1.91x value
He’ll be the highest owned pitcher. But at $11,500 I doubt it gets too out of control in tournaments. Seattle is better with the bats on the road, but they’re still not a great offense, and they have a few guys who strike out a ton.
It hasn’t really mattered for Cease this year. He has a 36% K% which would be getting a lot more attention if Misiorowski weren’t a thing.
The case against him is that he’s walked 12 batters in his last three outings. We’ve seen stud pitchers get crushed this week. There’s probably no reason for that, but look, it’s late August. Cease has thrown a ton of pitches this year and it’s possible we’re just seeing some fatigue result in this loss of command.
He’s still struck out 25 batters in the last three, but if he goes out there and walks four more, it’ll be pretty tough for him to achieve this price.
For tourneys, I think it’s a decent fade.
Reid Detmers ($8,800) vs. PHI
20.24 projected, 2.3x value
The Phillies have a .728 OPS and 23% K% against lefties since June 1st. They’re beatable with lefties. Some K% against LHP this year:
Schwarber 29%
Harper 25%
Marsh 37%
Bohm (13%), Sosa (21%), Turner (17%), and Realmuto (14%) counteract that. So it’s not a total smash spot for Detmers, but it’s fine. He’s nowhere near the Cease level of strikeout consistency. He bounces around in that regard, but his season K% is 28% and the projection is very, very strong here.
Logan Henderson ($10,500) vs. TEX
19.77 projected, 1.88x value)
He doesn’t seem to have the ceiling you want for a $10,500 guy. I’m angling this post towards tourneys tonight. For $10,500 you’re looking for 30 points. Henderson hasn’t done that this year.
The counterpoint is that he also hasn’t dudded much. He’s scored 26, 28, 27, 19, 27, and 19 since getting healthy and back into the rotation. He’s safe in this spot, but I don’t like the price as a GPP option where we’re trying to beat thousands of other lineups.
Cam Schlittler ($10,700) vs. BOS
18.61 projected, 1.74x value
Another low value projection on Schlittler, but I think it’s a fine night to play him. He is a reasonable pivot from Cease, who has 46% ownership projected. Schlittler’s at 16%.
The Red Sox lineup just isn’t as good as people think.
Like Cease, Schlittler has had some walks lately. Six in his last two starts. Three of his last four point totals have been under 20.
But it’s Yankees/Red Sox, it’s a big series, it’s a Friday night in Yankees Stadium. I think he’ll show up and shove.
Andrew Painter ($6,500) vs. LAA
16.19 projected, 2.49x value
The most interesting man on the slate! His velo shot up last time, his Stuff+ is up since coming back. His fastball looked brand new last time with much better shape and velo, and he went out there and got 20 whiffs on a 19.4% SwStr% against the Cardinals.
Now he takes that new-look into a matchup with the Angels, and he’s only $6,500. He should be popular in tourneys if people know what they’re doing, but a lot of people just play the projections, and the projections aren’t going to be great on him because of how bad he’s been before recently.
I’m all aboard. For right now, I think it’s Schlittler + Painter for me in a single tourney entry situation.
Jacob Lopez ($6,200) vs. BAL
16.39 projected, 2.64x value
There’s scary home run risk for Lopez. Alonso, Mayo, and CES are big power righties who can take Lopez out of the yard with ease in Sacramento.
But how often do you get a guy for $6,200 that has a 2.77 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 30.2% K%, and 8.5% BB% over his last nine starts? The price is just wrong. I know the home ballpark is scary, but he’s been fine there.
His last four starts at home: 15, 21, 18, 27 DK points.
That works beautifully at $6,200. He’s too cheap.
Quinn Mathews ($5,700) vs. PIT
He can get strikeouts, and he’s at home as a lefty against the Pirates. That’s the good news. The bad news is that he has no command and probably won’t get deep into the game. I don’t really want to use him, but I have to tell you that he absolutely has 20+ point upside in this spot. The stuff isn’t in question, it’s just the command. Maybe he’ll have it tonight.
So I’m going for one tourney lineup, and it’s pretty clear to me that I want Schlittler + Painter.
Hitters
The projections really like the Diamondbacks against Blade Tidwell. But I don’t. Tidwell is probably better than the projections think, and the game’s in San Francisco, and they still don’t have Ketel Marte.
Atlanta is the chalk tonight.
I know you don’t typically want to buy into the chalk stack in a tournament, but if you’re doing some smaller-field thing, it’s hard not to click Baldwin + Acuna + Olson right off the bat. The guys behind them are cheap, too.
I’ve already mentioned Alonso/CES/Mayo a few times. Love those three against the fly ball lefty in Sacramento. But we have a position crunch:
Olson 1B
Alonso 1B
CES 1B/3B
Mayo 3B
So we can’t play Alonso and Olson, and we can only play one of CES/Mayo if using one of those guys.
The Brewers:
I like Vaughn/Sanchez/Lara at their price. Chourio is a reasonable pay-up option. Very much liking filling in some slots with the Brewers who could score a bunch of runs as a unit tonight.
Let’s do position by position.
Catchers
Top projections:
Baldwin $4,800
Goodman $5,000
Contreras $4,200
Moreno $4,400
Jensen $3,800
Top values:
Ballesteros $2,900
Fermin $2,300
Narvaez $2,700
Davis $2,400
Jansen $2,700
If I’m stacking Braves, it’s going to be Baldwin. And if not, Contreras looks pretty great at $4,200. We’ll have to find some value along the way, and catcher is always a good spot for that, but I’d rather pay up for one of those two guys tonight.
First Base
Top projections
Alonso $6,200
Olson $5,300
Murakami $5,600
Mayo $4,000
Schwarber $6,300
Top values
Jared Young $2,500
Naylor $3,100
Eldridge $3,300
White $3,300
Tawa $2,900
There’s no getting away from Alonso or Olson to me. We can use Mayo at third. Olson is much cheaper and probably lower-owned, so that’s my preference.
Tommy White has been improving lately, so he’s someone to know. The Mets are also sneaky against Hunter Brown who has no command of the ball this year. But it’s Alonso/Olson for me.
Second Base
Top Projections
Brice Turang $5,500
Kody Clemens $5,200
JJ Wetherholt $4,600
Jackson Holliday $4,400
Jeff McNeil $3,900
Top Values
Christian Moore $2,400
Connor Norby $2,700
Cody Freeman $2,100
Brett Baty $2,500
Brock Rodden $2,300
Nothing great at second. Pretty good spot to punt. Brock Rodden is a Seattle infielder projected to be in the lineup tonight. He had 19 bombs in AAA but has just six hits in 38 PAs in the Majors with no homers and no steals.
I like Christian Moore as a long-term buy low, but I’m not picking Angels bats against Painter tonight.
Connor Norby is on the Rockies now and faces off with Grant Holmes. He’s hit .304/.340/.543 with the Rockies in 54 PAs with two homers and two steals. But this game isn’t in Coors. One of those guy is a viable punt though as we build this lineup out.
Shortstop
Top Projections
Bobby Witt Jr. $6,100
Corey Seager $4,400
Cole Carrigg $4,500
Francisco Lindor $4,200
Gunnar Henderson $5,700
Top Values
Ezequiel Tovar $2,400
Christian Koss $2,300
George Lombard Jr. $3,300
Mauricio Dubon $3,100
Brock Rodden $2,300
I like Witt but almost surely can’t afford him unless we’re doing a Royals stack and have to do it.
Seager is nicely priced, but against Henderson.
The best play is probably Dubon against Sugano. He’s supposed to hit 4th, which would be a must-have in a Braves stack, probably.
Third Base
Top Projections
Jose Ramirez $5,300
Junior Caminero $6,500
Zack Gelof $5,500
Coby Mayo $4,000
Encarnacion-Strand $5,100
Top Values
Josh Rojas $2,000
Christian Koss $2,300
Nick Yorke $2,500
Cody Freeman $2,100
Tommy White $3,300
Coby Mayo is the play of the day to me. It’s a perfect spot for him in this joke of a ballpark against a lefty. Look at the splits, LOOK AT EM:
.307/.363/.746 with 14 bombs off lefties. He was born for this matchup.
Otherwise, Nick Yorke $2,500 is a fine punt play against one-T Mathews.
Outfield
Top Projections
Carroll $5,400
Acuna Jr. $5,800
Alvarez $6,600
Tatis Jr. $5,900
Chourio $5,700
Bolte $4,400
Harris II $4,300
Nootbaar $3,300
Trout $5,300
Ewing $3,500
Top Values
Bateman $2,700
Nootbaar $3,300
Ewing $3,500
Jonah Cox $2,900
C Moore $2,400
Josh Lowe $2,700
Yorke $2,500
Sanchez $2,900
Baty $2,500
Collins $2,800
I like the Brett Bateman play if he’s leading off, which he should be. He has hit .324/.351/.397 in 74 PAs this year. There’s no power (0% Brl%), but a high contact rate and good angles off the bat.
The guy who’s on both lists there is Nootbaar. But I don’t really get it. He’s in San Francisco and hitting .170/.290/.264 with the Snakes in 62 PAs. One homer, one steal. For the year, just four homers and 2 steals in 65 games.
Using the Optimizer
Let’s just run 20 lineups with some variance and see which players pop up the most. This is a good way to find out what players fit best into lineups given position, price, and projection.
I’m allowing it do 100% exposure if it wants.
PITCHER EXPOSURE
Detmers 65%
Mathews 65%
Cease 40%
Sandoval 20%
Schlittler 5%
Jones 5%
So Painter doesn’t appear, but that was expected. We aren’t using the projection on him, we are taking the leap of faith that he’s truly a new guy with the changes we’ve just seen. And we’re playing a little bit of a narrative street on Schlittler. But all of that should mean we get them at lower ownership.
HITTER EXPOSURE
Nootbaar 90%
Mayo 60%
Norby 60%
Alonso 60%
Baldwin 55%
Carroll 55%
Seager 40%
Harris II 40%
Acuna Jr. 30%
Lombard Jr. 30%
I wish I could understand the Nootbaar love. I guess it’s just that he’s projected to lead off for $3,300 against Tidwell.
Here’s how it comes together:
I can’t say I don’t like it! Let’s have a night!!