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Trade Deadline
I don’t think we’ll see any starting pitchers end up scratched. Maybe Michael King could get moved, but that’s the only one I see at all possible. We might see some lineups having to be changed if trades break in the last couple of hours (deadline is at 6pm eastern, just an hour before this slate lock), but it should be a pretty straight-forward slate. Only 14 teams on it, after all.
Weather
No problems here. Maybe some sprinkles in Coors, but we aren’t likely to use SPs there anyways.
Game Info
Rays vs. Lorenzen
My projection on the Rays is less than six runs, and it’s the Rays. They’re a good offense, but they aren’t a juggernaut - and I’m balking at this 7.3-run implication. Even dropping that down a run would have it more than one run above the rest of the field, though.
Here’s the game card on this one:
$6,800 for Caminero, $4,800 for Aranda, $5,800 for Yandy. It’s a hard stack to feel great about. Coors doesn’t really help Caminero in the way that people will want to think. This park gives him the best chance to hit a 500-foot bomb or something ridiculous like that, but I will say it again, it’s not the best park in the league for home runs.
HOME RUN PER GAME BY PARK
Sacramento 3.3
Washington 3.1
Houston 2.9
Chicago (CHC) 2.75
Cincinnati 2.7
Colorado 2.7
New York (NYY) 2.7
Philadelphia 2.7
Atlanta 2.6
Los Angeles (LAD) 2.5
You might be thinking but isn’t that biased based on the quality of the home team’s lineup? And the answer is YES - good job by you for thinking that.
So we can look at HOME RUN PER BARREL rate to balance it out a bit more:
Philadelphia 61%
Los Angeles (LAD) 58%
Washington DC 57%
Sacramento 54%
Seattle 53%
Cincinnati 52%
Houston 52%
Texas 51%
Chicago (CHC) 51%
Baltimore 51%
Milwaukee 51%
Colorado 51%
The league average is 48%. Colorado is in the middle of the pack here. Coors is best for turning fly outs into hits, singles into doubles, and doubles into triples. Caminero is at career-high price, but it’s not a career-high projection (that said, he’s #2 in projection behind Yordan Alvarez).
Toronto at Houston
Here’s the game I’m most inclined to on a first pass.
Shane Bieber has been awful, and Cristian Javier is a guy we should not believe in. If we look at the top of the xERA board for tonight’s probables:
Bieber 5.44
McGreevy 4.83
Javier 4.82
And yet a 9.0 O/U and ownership that is well below Coors. Stacking the Blue Jays seems like it will never work, but Okamoto + Springer + Varsho + Sanchez isn’t bad. Those guys have some pop, and Javier is a fly ball pitcher with big problems, even if some people online are going to try to convince you that he’s somehow fixed himself now with a “cutter” or something like that.
Yankees vs. McGreevy
The Yanks remain cold, they’ve been near the bottom of the league offensively for several weeks now, but they’re back at home against a bad starter and a mediocre bullpen that could get worse today. They added Luis Garcia Jr. and I think he should have been able to get to NY in the last day since the trade, so he should be in there.
They’re at a 5.5-run implication, +0.88 above average and they’re in the middle of the ownership projections.
Those are my main three teams for tonight. Astros, Blue Jays, and Yankees. Fade the Coors ownership, hope it goes our way, and win something big.
I was listening to a financial podcast today about growing generational wealth. And the best thing I can do on that quest today is to win $25,000 on DraftKings. So I’m going for it. That’s what I learned from those responsible financial planners. Just win it all by gaming on DraftKings.
Upon review of my finances and the DK lineup, I cannot currently afford to go after a $25,000 win. So I’m settling for $10,000 upside with three entries into the $40K Full Count. That’s the context in which I will write the rest of this article.
But I have to paywall it first so you free-loaders don’t steal my thoughts and beat me!