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I hit a beauty yesterday by stacking Guardians with two Tylers (Glasnow and Mahle). So maybe that’s the key to DFS - picking two pitchers with the same name.
Or maybe it’s just about picking a five-man stack that goes off for double-digit runs at single-digit ownership. Yeah, that’s probably it.
But I’m all jazzed up for another slate now after getting that influx into the bankroll. Here’s the lineup I had:
Saw Guardians at low projected ownership against Seth Lugo and jumped at it, and the pitchers hit, and Jared Triolo did his part even though the secondary stack of the Mariners fell very flat against Scherzer.
DFS is a game of patience. But if you stay consistent with it, playing good pitchers in good spots and stacking up lower-owned offenses that are in good spots, you’ll eventually break through.
I’m probably doomed tonight, but we’re taking the same method into this Monday slate. And of course we’ll talk about what to do in cash as well.
Weather
MIL at CHC
YELLOW/GREEN - Maybe a few showers early. A brief late start is possible, I don’t think we see any in-game issues. Winds are (again) blowing out, and the hitting weather is (again) excellent.
BAL at COL
YELLOW/ORANGE - Scattered downpours. Decent chance of a delay, they likely manage to get a game in regardless.
So maybe some reason to shy away from the pitchers in those spots, but other than that we’re fine.
Game Info
BALTIMORE in COORS
6.19 implied, +1.63
The O’s square off with Tanner Gordon. This is an offense that hasn’t done much this year heading into Coors for game one. So we get some nice prices:
Gordon’s a righty with a 19% K% and 4% BB% this year. Just the kind of guy we like to stack against in Coors. Lots of balls in play and a home run issue (1.8 HR/9).
The prices are juiced up for the spot. It’s not the most expensive visitor stack you’ll see in Coors, but it’s not a total smash price-wise either because DraftKings is on top of this.
The best plays I can see:
Jackson Holliday $4,700 (if leading off)
Dylan Beavers $4,100
Colton Cowser $3,600
When you look at the projections, though, it doesn’t look very good. Nobody is projected for a 2x value. That’s a red flag, and it makes this one somewhat easy to avoid in the tournament build we’re going for where we’re not playing the chalk offense. I doubt we’ll see any of these guys end up in the projected optimal, but we’ll get to that.
RANGERS vs. GAGE JUMP (in TEX)
5.08 implied, +1.03
If you read these daily, you know I like Gage Jump a little bit. He struck out nine last time in 6.1 innings at home against the Twins. He still has a HR/9 under one, and he has a 3.49 ERA with a 17% K-BB% on the road.
I like Jump as a streamer this week in a two-start on the road. So I don’t think I’ll be loving the top of the Rangers lineup. Some guys that do project very well at the price:
Logan O’Hoppe $2,300
Cody Freeman $2,400
Danny Jansen $2,800
That’s two catchers and a guy in Freeman who has just a .229 xwOBA this year. So not a great stack spot either in my view.
ROCKIES vs. KYLE BRADISH
5.00 implied, +0.08
This could work. Bradish relies a ton on breaking balls, and Coors is a tough place to do that.
Jake McCarthy $5,400
Cole Carrigg $5,100
Hunter Goodman $5,600
TJ Rumfield $4,300
Willi Castro $4,600
Mickey Moniak $4,900
Connor Norby $3,400
Zac Veen $3,600
Ezequiel Tovar $3,000
No crazy prices there, and some high upside hitters at the top of that lineup. Big fan of this one.
CUBS vs. KYLE HARRISON
4.89 implied, -0.35
This is not a high implication for the Cubs, as you can see by them being below their season average. You’ve got winds blowing out, and that heightens the markets and the ownership, we think.
Harrison is a fly ball lefty (29% FB%), but he does have a sick 30% K% this year, which doesn’t get influenced by the wind, at least not in a way we should care about.
So it’s a good spot for the Cubs to score some runs. They’ll probably get a ball or two into the stands as a low-strikeout, high-FB lineup. But Harrison can be nails, so I’m not sure what to do with the Cubs tonight.
Since I think they’ll get some ownership, I’d lean towards being out on them as an expensive lineup against a good starter.
TWINS vs. JACKSON JOBE
4.87 implied, +0.37
This is a good one. Very low projected ownership against Jobe.
Jobe has given up a .357 xwOBA this year with a 8.8% SwStr% and a very bad 8.8% K-BB%. His fastball has been hit very hard.
BUT he has been a ground-ball guy with a huge 56% GB%. The ground balls have come from the slider, which doesn’t make a ton of sense, and the sinker, which does make sense.
It’s a pretty nice lineup to stack. Only Clemens is above $5K, and there are plenty of home run bats in the lineup.
Keaschall $4,200
Lee $3,900
Clemens $5,300
Jeffers $4,900
Bell $4,200
And then the two youngsters at the bottom of the lineup:
Kaelen Culpepper $3,200
Walker Jenkins $3,000
You could take the wrap-around stack with the 8-9--1-2-3, that would end up being very cheap.
ASTROS vs. ANTHONY KAY
4.75 implied, +0.37
Kay’s splits are important here:
vs. RHB: 15% K%, .371 xwOBA
vs. LHB: 28% K%, .247 xwOBA
The Astros lineup is very right-handed. I really like these guys:
Jeremy Pena $5,000
Isaac Paredes $4,100
Jose Altuve $4,200
Yainer Diaz $3,100
Cam Smith $2,900
Nelson Velazquez $2,400
PLUS this game’s in Houston where the Crawford boxes can turn some fly outs into 14-point dingers. I’m liking the Yordanless Astros stacks. Alvarez slugged only .462 in August with two homers, so he’s really cooled off after that ridiculous June-July he had.
So for our lower-owned stacking strategy, I’m looking at these lineups:
Twins vs. Jobe
Astros vs. Kay
Rockies vs. Bradish
The highest projected ownerships (using just the top five in each lineup):
Orioles 12%
Brewers 10%
Phillies 9%
Those aren’t going to be exactly right, of course, but the order of the projected ownership should be mostly right.
Pitchers
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