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Been a few days since I’ve been on the keys! I did play last night, and got there in cash while losing about half of my tourney investment - so that’s another winning night for me!
The cash decision last night was TOUGH with Misiorowski on there. I was lucky to go to Kirby instead of Misiorowski and have the right hitters in there to cash.
My approach these days is to continue to max out every $1-$3 double up I can find and then throw a bunch of lineups into the $1 or $0.50 mini max iterating through some of the favorite stacks.
So I’ll write this article with that approach in mind. I’m still mostly focused on getting the right cash lineup in there, but I’m definitely loading up some tourney lineups for this beautiful Tuesday slate.
Weather
Trouble spots:
LAD/PHI (not on slate)
PIT/NYY
ORANGE - Same forecast as Philly really, there’s a line of storms that will cause a delay (I’d guess late start). I’m not yet sure if it clears out behind that line or if they are locked in and need to PPD it. I think we’ll know before gametime, but not yet.
BAL/BOS
ORANGE/YELLOW - The main line of storms holds off in Boston until 10 or 11, but out ahead of that main line are widely scattered showers and storms. Those downpours are certainly enough to cause issues on their own, and if they delay things, then the main line comes in later this evening as a game-ender. Maybe they get lucky and avoid the first round, that would let them get a full game in before any trouble, but the coverage here is maybe 70% or higher, so the odds of fully avoiding the pre-line storms aren’t great.
Game Info
Here’s the new Game Data table on the app:
COORS FIELD
A ridiculous total of 13 runs in this one.
Carson Palmquist is an opener. So that means the Rockies are getting 7+ innings against the Nationals bullpen.
Michael Lorenzen is garbage all by himself. Although he does seem like a good guy. I liked when he threw that no-no for the Phillies a couple of years ago and then had his kids climbing all over him during the postgame interview. That was cool. But his kids might not want to watch tonight as he takes his 11% K-BB% and .350 xwOBA allowed (last two seasons) up against the league’s top-scoring offense in the Rocky Mountains.
The Nats price are restrictive.
That might be the most expensive 1-5 stack of the season. It might really not be worthwhile in cash. Who envisioned us paying $5500 for Luis Garcia and $5600 for Curtis Mead?
The Rockies are also very expensive at the top, but you can get the bottom five in the lineup very affordably.
Jake McCarthy ($4,800) is probably too cheap. It’s just the Moniak and Goodman prices that super juiced up.
Diamondbacks vs. Jack Perkins
I’m surprised at this implication. 5.5 runs for the Snakes at home (+1.14 vs. season average).
Perkins has a 27% K% this year with a walk rate that is under control.
He’s coming off a pitch count of 67, though, so they will have to use that bullpen today in some capacity.
I’m just a little hesitant to pick on Perkins if the Snakes are going to be chalk. His ERA is a disaster (6.87 and it’s still 6.09 even away from Sacramento), but is 3.53!
He’s the #4 “unluckiest” pitcher by this metric. My JA ERA on him is 3.06.
He doesn’t deserve anywhere near the ERA he’s put up. So the Diamondbacks might end up being very much over-owned.
Athletics bullpen sucks, though:
It won’t be a shock if the D’Backs do well, I’m just not holding Arizona to the same height on my board as WSH/COL.
The kicker, I guess, is the price tags. You’re getting really, really low prices on everybody other than Ketel Marte.
Giants vs. Avila
The Giants will pop in DFS any time they’re on the road. They have a team .704 OPS at home and a mark of .747 on the road. So we like their prices.
Avila hasn’t been awful the last couple of seasons, but he’s being asked to throw innings as a starter now, and he’s not well suited for that. And the Royals bullpen is ranked dead last on my list.
My projections aren’t in love with the Giants as a raw projection, but the value is certainly there.
Two sneakier stacks by the numbers (high implied totals above average and low ownership):
Rangers vs. Schultz
Royals vs. Mahle
But neither of these offenses comes through very often. Bobby Witt Jr. is day to day, which takes a lot away from that KC lineup, and the Rangers find themselves at home where they’re hitting .237/.308/.398 this year (.705 OPS).
I’d call those mini-stacks rather than full five-man approaches.
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