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Weather
One problem spot, that’s Braves at Mets (Chris Sale!)
ORANGE - As of this morning as I’m typing this, high-res forecast models put heavy rain in NYC during gametime. That would be a certain lengthy delay, and a possible PPD. There’s still time for things to change, so I’ll check back in the mid afternoon and see if models are still looking ugly here.
That might make a big difference for us. Last night got ugly with the Reds game being pivotal for DFS and a PPD that happened after lock. That could be the case again tonight.
UPDATE: POSTPONED!
Game Data
The Red Sox didn’t exactly come through last night, but they’re back on top of the board against Gage Jump in Sacramento. This is a lefty, and the Red Sox have very much enjoyed hitting lefties lately. Jump has been bad lately. After not giving up a single homer through six outings, he’s given up seven in his last five. I still don’t think Jump is the most stack-worthy arm in the league, but the market likes the Red Sox a whole bunch, and it’s hard to make a great case for Jump after this recent stretch.
That Reds implied total is from the first game, ignore that, so that’s confusing. They’ll face Gavin Williams in game two (the one on this slate), and that’s a very tough matchup.
The Padres face the Rockies back at home. So that’s a bad park, but a good matchup against the pitchers (Lorenzen and company). Some of the Padres bats are really getting going. Tatis, Machado, Merrill, France, and even some others have been doing more with the bat lately.
The Dodgers have a huge 6.3 implication against Luis Castillo at home.
The Reds game two starter is TBD, but Cleveland is in a good spot there. It won’t be Burns or Greene, so that makes it a good spot for run scoring for the road team in Cincy.
Some work and calls popped up so I’ve gotta go a little bit more quickly through this. Which I don’t like to do on a big Tuesday slate!
Pitchers
Chris Sale is off the board. That leaves Gavin Williams as the big play at a 22.6-point projections against the Reds. Wouldn’t be surprising to see him give up a couple of homers, but the strikeout rate has been elite this year, and particularly lately. He has three straight with 11 strikeouts, so this is a great pitcher at a really low price. Not sure what that price is even about. With Sale PPD, Williams is a cash game lock.