MLB DFS Slate Breakdown - July 7
A look at both DFS slates tonight with an eye on cash games
Slate preview posts are for all paid subs, but access to the daily projections plus all of the DFS and betting tools is limited to PRO subscribers. Become an MLB DW Pro member today to get the full access to some of the best daily MLB tools on the market!
Last night was great for me. The projections were on it, nobody really played Schlittler, and the optimal lineup cashed with ease thanks to some big hitter performances. I went Roupp + Jax and had Mead + Wood in there. I even played The Bat X optimal in some double ups and it also cashed, although it was ten points behind the MLB DW optimal.
Double Header Problems
Double headers are a real problem for me, as you may have noticed. The Cardinals and Brewers play two games today. The first one is Misiorowski vs. Svanson, and the second one is Dobbins vs. Gasser. I’ve gotten rid of that first game from the projections entirely, but you might still see some duplicate lines in the DFS projections. But those projections are correct for the night slate.
Weather
Two potential bad spots, both on the Turbo slate:
Astros at Nationals
ORANGE/YELLOW - Scattered downpours. This is similar to the BAL forecast, but models are currently a bit more aggressive with rain over DC than BAL. Can we trust those specific details this far out? Absolutely not. We’ll need a pregame radar check here.
Cubs at Orioles
YELLOW/ORANGE - Scattered downpours. Right now high-res models are showing this as a Late Start and Play, but we can’t really trust models this far out to be precise. Will need to circle back before first pitch and see what radar looks like.
It’s a six-game turbo slate… so we could probably play it. I don’t see any RED in Roth’s forecast, so we can proceed as if it’s all green.
TURBO SLATE GAME INFO
Tigers vs. JT Ginn
That’s a no go for me. I like Ginn, especially away from Sacramento. You see the Tigers implication is 5.5 runs, nothing special, but 1.3 runs above their average.
Orioles vs. Matthew Boyd
Not a great spot either, but they’re +0.3 on their average against the lefty
There’s nothing really standing out for a can’t-miss offense on this slate. We can just take this slate focusing on individual player projections and prices rather than focusing on the team context in addition to that.
MAIN SLATE GAME INFO
Dodgers vs. Lorenzen
The green implied totals just follow the Rockies wherever they go. They’ve been hitting well this year, but not pitching well. The Dodgers are +1.7 on their season average, which is huge for them.
Phillies vs. Abbott
It’s a lefty against the Phillies, which typically doesn’t go super well for them. They struggle against southpaws, but they’re in Cincy here and Abbott has been far from great this year
Mets vs. Lugo
The Mets came through for us late on the over 4.5 team total, and they’re back in a good spot here against Lugo, who has been terrible. But the Mets remain kinda tough to trust.
Padres vs. Gallen
Gallen is simply one of the worst pitchers in the league. The Padres should have a nice night even at home in a tough park to hit in.
Turbo Slate Pitchers
Skubal gets pretty much the nut matchup. He was awesome last time, so we aren’t concerned about the IL stint earlier this year. The Athletics on the road vs. LHP this year: .213/.263/.328. It’s a must-play for Skubal in cash and tourneys.
Can you trust Paul Skenes at $9,500? Probably not. He has not come through on that price very often this year. That said, it’s actually a sneaky good matchup for him in Pittsburgh against a Braves lineup that has struggled since Acuna got hurt.
Skubal is the far superior play, but the price drop on Skenes makes him appealing. We went through last week in the Daily Notes that he’s still really good under the hood and just needs a little bit of luck and slight improvement in putting guys away to look like an ace again.
Matthew Boyd ($7,200) is #2 in value behind Skubal. That’s a nice price for a matchup with the Orioles lineup that has a .660 OPS against lefties this year.
Andrew Alvarez ($6,000) has been decent. He takes on the Astros in this potential rain spot. He has a 27.6% K% this year with a 9.2% BB%. That K% is down a couple of points since he’s been stretched out as a starter, but it’s still above 25%. It’s probably too much risk with his actual talent and the potential rain to go to in cash, but I think he’s a tourney play.
Ian Seymour ($7,700) is getting uncomfortably priced, but he takes on the Yankees in Tampa tonight, and that should be considered a fine spot. I think he’s a start in fantasy leagues, but I like Boyd better for $500 less (he projects one point above Seymour).
Bryan Woo ($9,000) does not project well tonight at the price. He’s worse on the road, and the projections are reflecting that tonight (even though it’s not designed to do so directly). The model doesn’t take pitcher home/road stats; it just takes their basic skill projections and applies them to the park they’re in that day. So this is interesting. It seems like a trap spot for Woo in Miami. Just a 16.3-point projection for him, so he’s out of the picture for cash.
CASH DECISION: Skubal is an easy lock. And Boyd is the obvious SP2 with this weird price he has.
Turbo Slate Hitters
Top of the board raw projection-wise:
I want some blue and green combo in the spend-up hitters. That takes Junior Caminero and Pete Crow-Armstrong off the board for me under a 1.7x value. PCA’s splits:
He’s kind of a Wrigley winds merchant, isn’t he? Maybe that’s too harsh, still a .444 SLG on the road, but he’s not really deserving of that high price tag in this spot.
Caminero’s up against Warren who handles righties very well.
So the top play up here in my model is McGonigle against Ginn. Platoon advantage, high floor with Kevin’s plate discipline. Good play. But the ceiling does keep him down a little bit in my mind. He’s not popping homers and stealing bags like the PCA’s of the world at the top of the board.
The other guys combining for both a high value and a high projection:
Luis Garcia Jr. $4,100
Michael Busch $3,900
Jonathan Aranda $4,200
Kerry Carpenter $3,600
Dominic Canzone $3,400
Feels like a good slate to just live in that mid-tier. That’s where most of the value is. I suppose that’s usually true, but the guys at the top of the board price-wise just aren’t in great spots on this slate.
TURBO SLATE TOP PLAYS BY POSITION
Catcher
Cal Raleigh $4,200
Adley Rutschman $4,100
Yainer Diaz $3,200
Hunter Feduccia $2,500
CASH PLAY: YAINER DIAZ $3,200
First Base
Luis Garcia Jr. $4,100
Michael Busch $3,900
Jonathan Aranda $4,200
Spencer Torkelson $3,300
Garcia projects very well in my model, I’ve been ahead of his recent surge more than other systems, I’ve noticed. But he’s against Imai tonight, who can go out there and dominate when he has the command. I like Busch or Aranda the most. Both of those prices seem way too low to me.
CASH PLAY: JONATHAN ARANDA $4,200
Second Base
Jose Altuve $3,500
Nasim Nunez $3,400
Richie Palacios $3,300
Brice Matthews $2,100
Nothing really stands out here. Jose Altuve is very cheap and showed that he can still hit the ball out of the yard last night. Against Alvarez and the Nats bullpen, it’s fine. I don’t hate the punt play with Palacios, though. We’ll see what kinda salary we need.
CASH PLAY: JOSE ALTUVE $3,500
Third Base
Kevin McGonigle $4,700
JP Crawford $2,900
Amed Rosario $3,000 (pinch hit risk)
Jared Triolo $2,400
CASH PLAY: KEVIN McGONIGLE $4,700
Shortstop
Kevin McGonigle $4,700
Nasim Nunez $3,400
Jim Jarvis $2,100
Zach McKinstry $2,500
Another weak position here. Abrams is against Imai and kinda struggling lately, and Gunnar is up against a lefty. Those are the two big ceiling bats, but I’d rather pay down a bit. Maybe put McGonigle here at SS and use Crawford at 3B if he’s leading off.
Outfield
Yordan Alvarez $6,000
James Wood $5,900
Kerry Carpenter $3,600
Tyler O’Neill $2,600
Dominic Canzone $3,400
Brice Matthews $2,100
Esmerlyn Valdez $3,200
Zach Dezenzo $2,000
The model wants us to pick on Max Meyer with JP Crawford and Dominic Canzone. I don’t really love to do that because of how well he’s pitched. But the model has some wisdom here, because Meyer is due for plenty of regression (in my opinion) with his bad fastball and the history of struggles he had prior to this year. I’ll leave Canzone off, I think there’s just too much downside (pinch hit possibility too) on the road against Meyer who has been great.
Yordan isn’t projecting like a good play at $6K, but we have money to spend. I guess the projections would say to choose James Wood over him as the projection is a little higher and he’s $100 cheaper.
Zach Dezenzo has recently been recalled. We’d expect the Astros to use him against lefties like Alvarez tonight. The minimum price tag there is one the model usually likes. But he hasn’t had much success as an MLB hitter.
I think we need some help from the optimizer. The MLB DW projections give you this:
SP SKENES
SP SKUBAL
C RALEIGH
1B GARCIA
2B ALTUVE
3B CRAWFORD
SS McGONIGLE
OF CARPENTER
OF GREENE
OF CANZONE