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Weather
No problems to speak of.
Game Data
Red Sox vs. Barnett
One more chance for the Red Sox to have a big game in Sacramento. It hasn’t been big run scoring to this point, but this could be the night. Barnett will only go a few innings. He’s been mostly working in relief and he’s been between AAA and MLB. But not good numbers:
Not good STUFF:
A 9.3% SwStr% and a 33% GB%. This is definitely the best matchup the Red Sox have had in Sacramento. I haven’t even really been playing them outside of the few cheap guys they had in platoon advantages, but a full stack attack is warranted tonight.
Padres vs. Robbie Ray
This is pretty wild. They’re +1 in implication against their season average. But they’re at home against Robbie Ray, who has (somehow) been crushing. Ray’s given up five earned runs in his last 49.2 innings.
But he’s not nearly this good. Just a 21% K% on the year, and he’s been doing most of his good pitching at home.
A 3.88 ERA with a 12.9% K-BB% and a 1.55 HR/9 on the road. Huge HR/9 splits for Ray (0.69 HR/9 at home), and that’s the key. I think the Padres are a very sneaky stack at lower ownership since Ray has been doing so well. But then again, the Padres haven’t hit well at home this year. So it could go either way, but I definitely could see a big game with what’s going on with Ray. It really is a near perfect stacking situation with lower ownership against a pitcher who has home/road splits and has a very “lucky” ERA over his last couple of months.
Braves vs. Jake Irvin
Irvin returns after a long IL stint. He’s not a good pitcher, but he had shown some positive signs before the injury.
I wouldn’t want to bet on him in his return from the IL, but the 16% K-BB% shows you that his ERA probably shouldn’t be over five right now. If the Braves are going to have ownership, that’s one I’d rather be on the fade side of - because I think Irvin is better than most people think he is. But again, first start off the IL and a really poor track record for him before this short sample this year.
I’ll play a few Braves stacks but I don’t want to go over the field on it.
Reds vs. Pirates Bullpen Game
+0.73 in implication as they face off with Yohan Ramirez probably for two innings and then a pretty poor Pirates bullpen behind him.
If the Reds get off to a lead, they’ll see some pretty bad pitching. The Pirates really only have Montgomery & Soto in the bullpen that you want to avoid, and they won’t be pitching in this one unless it’s a tight game late.