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Game Data
12-game slate with no weather to worry about. Here’s the top of the board:
MARINERS vs. Springs
Mega ownership on the Mariners against Jeffrey Springs. Awesome spot for the righties in that lineup.
RED SOX vs. Lugo
My favorite pitcher to stack against! The Red Sox have a juicy spot here and the ownership is projected to go the Mariners. Nice secondary spot to get off the big Seattle stack.
BREWERS vs. Andrew Abbott
It’s in Milwaukee, which is a little worse than it being in Cincy. But the Brewers are very familiar with Abbott, and Abbott is a pitcher that can give up a ton of hits and homers.
DIAMONDBACKS vs. Kumar Rocker
Nothing special here. Just a 5.1 implied total, but that’s +0.67 above their average. I like to play the D’Backs more against lefties, but Rocker is a guy who can get himself into a lot of trouble.
PADRES vs. Anthony Molina
Sneaky spot here for the Padres against some bad pitching. Unfortunately, they’re in San Francisco. That lowers their home run upside, but should also keep the ownership super down.
My favorite stacks:
Red Sox
Mariners
Padres
D’Backs
Brewers
Pitchers
It’s a pretty easy slate for cash. We jam in Chris Sale ($11,000) and Blake Snell ($10,700) and figure out the offense later. Those two are so far above the field. They are two of the best pitchers in the league and they’re both fully ramped up and in great form right now.
There are few other options to feel really good about when playing cash, but here are the guys I think can work:
Drew Rasmussen $9,200 vs. HOU
Parker Messick $10,200 vs. MIN
Taj Bradley $9,200 vs. CLE
Robbie Ray $8,000 vs. SF
Robbie Ray is back in SF where he pitched so well. It’s more expensive than I’d like given that he’s not very good, but it’s a perfectly fine play in that elite matchup.
Rasmussen and Messick are the options if you can’t afford both Snell and Sale. I wouldn’t hate Sale + Messick at all, but the ceiling is much lower with Messick, and you don’t save all that much cash.
We are at the point in the season where we need to start watching pitch count stuff carefully. Lots of teams are shutting young pitchers down. I don’t see that being a problem tonight, but it’s definitely something to keep in mind for the next few weeks as you’re playing out this MLB DFS season.
HITTERS
Let’s look for the values first because I want to know if I can fit both Sale and Snell.
I have never heard of Carlos Jorge. That’s two first names. But he’s $2100 and the model likes him based on what he did the minors. Don’t expect much at all, but if you’re spending $22,000 at pitcher, you need a couple hitters for less than $5K total.
Lars Nootbaar ($2,900) remains extremely cheap. Doesn’t make a ton of sense. Good spot for the Snakes against Rocker.
Luis Lara ($3,300) is a model favorite here even against the lefty Abbott.
Michael Arroyo ($2,500) has made just one start for the Mariners since getting the call, but I would think he’ll be in there most of the time against lefties. So if he’s in the M’s lineup tonight, he’ll be in mind.
And we get the probable debut of Josue De Paula ($3,000). He is not MINIMUM price, but he’s also not expensive, and he’s an incredibly talented prospect we have to know about for
If Arroyo + De Paula are in the lineup, which I suspect they will be, we have a great way to get some cheap hitters that actually have some talent. That will make the expensive pitchers easy to fit.
TOP STUDS
The highest projections on the board:
Fernando Tatis 11.2 projected points
Randy Arozarena 10.6
Juan Soto 10.5
Cal Raleigh 10.3
Roman Anthony 10.3
Jackson Chourio 10.3
Elly De La Cruz 10.2
Jackson Merrill 10.2
Jose Ramirez 9.9
Catchers
Cal Raleigh $5,400
Adley Rutschamn $3,700
First Base
Pete Alonso $5,200
Josh Naylor $4,000
Jeff McNeil $3,700
Second Base
Fernando Tatis $6,300
randomly has 2B eligibility again
Ketel Marte $4,400
Michael Arroyo $2,500
Third Base
Jose Ramirez $5,400
Manny Machado $5,300
Josh Smith $2,300
Shortstop
JP Crawford $3,500
Corey Seager $4,200
Francisco Lindor $4,300
Outfield
Randy Arozarena $5,900
Julio Rodriguez $5,000
Fernando Tatis $6,300
Josue De Paula $3,000
Juan Soto $6,000
Henry Bolte $4,400
Roman Anthony $5,000
Taylor Ward $3,700
Jackson Chourio $5,700
Dom Canzone $4,400
Jackson Merrill $4,800
Nick Morabito $2,100
Carlos Jorge $2,100
Dustin Harris $2,500
Luis Lara $3,300
OPTIMIZER TALK
How to make it work with Sale + Snell:
SP Sale
SP Snell
C Raleigh
1B Pederson
2B Michael Arroyo
SS Crawford
3B Josh Smith
OF Canzone
OF Rodriguez
OF Morabito
The optimal the projections have:
SP Sale
SP May
C Raleigh
1B Pederson
2B Ketel Marte
3B Josh Smith
SS Crawford
OF Ward
OF Canzone
OF J Rodriguz
So I should have highlighted the RANGERS as a solid stack against Merrill Kelly. Lots of power bats in there against Merrill who can give up the bombs!
We’ll want some Mariners, we’ll want one or both of Sale/Snell, and we’ll want to use Arroyo & De Paula as rookies with low price tags that probably shouldn’t be that low.
Good luck to you out there!