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Last regular season slate of the year for me. Sad to see it come to an end. But we’ll be hitting it hard for the first few days in the postseason when we have some four-game slates.
Let’s crush this one and finish on a high note.
Weather
Looks all clear on the main slate.
Game Data
Implications:
Dodgers vs. Yunior Marte: 5.95 implied
White Sox vs. Sugano: 5.60 implied (in Chicago)
Astros vs. Lopez: 5.47 implied (in Sacramento)
Brewers vs. McGreevy: 5.20 implied
Two cheaper offenses with implications above their season average:
Blue Jays vs. Nick Lodolo
Guardians vs. Noah Cameron
The White Sox, Guardians, and Astros are playing very important games, so maybe that’s a boost to players on those teams. The Dodgers have gotten healthy and are trying to gather some steam for the playoffs, we’ve seen them treating these games as very important, so I wouldn’t be worried about any limitations this weekend.
Pitchers
Lots of options on the board tonight.
Tarik Skubal ($11,000) has 21 strikeouts in his last two starts. He threw 99 and 91 pitches in those outings. The Dodgers are three games behind the Brewers for the #1 seed, but they’ve locked in a bye. So they won’t need Skubal until next Saturday. That doesn’t mean they won’t consider taking it easy, but it’s not a situation where they need to limit him so he can take the ball at full strength again in the middle of next week. It’s a great matchup and they haven’t eased off of him yet, so I think it’s a good play. BUT, it doesn’t take much doubt to get us off of an $11K pitcher. It’s possible they limit him to 75-80 pitches here just to be safe.
Reid Detmers ($9,400) goes to Seattle to finish up his breakout year. He threw 81 pitches last time, and he was pitching fine from what I can see. So this is quite likely a shorter outing for him. He’s their ace for next year and this game means nothing.
Gavin Williams ($9,700) is pitching in an important game as the Guardians try to win the division. They have just an 83-76 record, but that will be good enough to get a first-round bye if they win the division, since the winner of the AL West will come in with 82 wins maximum. What they wouldn’t love to see is Gavin throw a bunch of pitches and not be ready for a Wild Card game one if they don’t win the division. But since they have a one-game lead, my guess is they’re putting everything into winning this game to try to get that bye week so they can get have Williams on full rest. So yeah, I’d play Gavin Williams.
Jacob deGrom ($9,700) is another ace pitcher with no limitations here. The Rangers can win the division, and they’ll want to ride him there tonight.
Joe Ryan ($9,700) is on the other side of that one, and he threw 99 pitches last time, so they haven’t been showing signs of shutting him down early.
Hunter Brown ($8,900) is in Sacramento, which is not a good spot to be, but it’s a super important game and he’s been pitching pretty well lately.
I can’t believe how complicated this pitching slate is, I thought we’d have a pretty easy weekend. But for DFS purposes, I think it’s best to just stick to the studs who are in important games. So my list would be:
Gavin Williams $9,700 vs. KC
Jacob deGrom $9,700 vs. MIN
Tarik Skubal $11,000 vs. SF
Hunter Brown $8,900 vs. ATH
Other options I’d play if I’m expanding the pool:
Joe Ryan $9,700 vs. TEX
Sean Burke $8,500 vs. COL
Jose Soriano $8,000 vs. CIN
The Reid Detmers fade is alarming, because he’s been so good, and we don’t know for sure that he’ll be limited in this one. But I think it’s too likely that he goes five innings and out to make that play at $9400.
Building for a cash lineup, I think I’m locking in Gavin Williams and Jacob deGrom to start with.
Hitters
We have a ton of hitters popping hugely in the projections. Here are the top projections above a 2x value, you usually don’t see this many.
Munetaka Murakami $4,800: 10.1 points
Garrett Mitchell $4,000: 9.5 points
Kyle Teel $3,500: 9.17 points
Drake Baldwin $4,500: 9.1 points
Sam Antonacci $4,300: 9.1 points
Heriberto Hernandez $4,000: 8.99 points
There are two catchers on that that, so you can’t play them both.
Some of the biggest values that project above seven points:
Carlos Jorge $2,500
Pavin Smith $2,300
Moises Ballesteros $3,000
Charles McAdoo $2,800
Kyle Teel $3,500
Lars Nootbaar $3,100
Jakob Marsee $3,200
Cooper Pratt $3,100
Kyle Stowers $3,500
Luis Lara $3,300
I put those five in bold because I think they’re actually good hitters and not just guys who are projecting well because of the price.
It looks like a lot of White Sox are in play on this Friday night. My guys at RPS will be stiff in the waist area for this spot.
Offenses I’m really focused on when looking at the full picture:
White Sox vs. Sugano
Astros vs. Jacob Lopez
Brewers vs. McGreevy
Marlins vs. Grant Holmes
D’Backs vs. Casey Mize
Casey Mize gave up a .273 xwOBA with the Tigers. Something has gone horribly wrong since he’s gone to the Padres, though. He’s given up a .342 xwOBA and ten homers with a pathetic 13% K% and 9% BB%. One of the worst pitchers in the league right now, and the Diamondbacks probably can’t lose again if they want any chance of making the playoffs.
I’ve already narrowed it down pretty well.
Pitchers:
Gavin Williams $9,700 vs. KC
Jacob deGrom $9,700 vs. MIN
Tarik Skubal $11,000 vs. SF
Hunter Brown $8,900 vs. ATH
Offenses:
White Sox vs. Sugano
Astros vs. Jacob Lopez
Brewers vs. McGreevy
Marlins vs. Grant Holmes
D’Backs vs. Casey Mize
But let’s look at each position a bit closer to see what other plays stick out.
CATCHERS
Kyle Teel $3,500
Clearly the best play on the slate. 8.4-point projection at $3,500 in one of the best matchups of the night
Shea Langeliers $5,500
Not quite an ideal spot with Hunter Brown on the hill. But the upside for Langeliers at home is unmatched.
Yainer Diaz $4,000
The Astros pop in Sacramento. Against Lopez, we want more of the righties, and that’s Yainer. Diaz has suddenly shown a pretty good season line with a .763 OPS. He’s hit .287/.326/.425 against lefties, and this is the best park imagineable for him.
Gabriel Moreno $4,200
Moreno has an .871 OPS this year with 16 bombs. It’s been a career year for him, and he gets the juicy spot with the current form of Casey Mize.
FIRST BASE
Munetaka Murakami $4,800
Kyle Stowers $3,500
Up to a .459 SLG this year with a 12.8% Brl%. He’s hit .246/.331/.481 against righties this year with 19 bombs, so this is very cheap for a guy with this much power against Grant Holmes.
Christian Walker $4,100
Jake Bauers $4,500
.880 OPS this year and a great spot vs. McGreevy.
SECOND BASE
Fernando Tatis Jr. $6,200
Pfaadt can handle righties, and this is expensive for Tatis when we have other offenses we like better, but Tatis has been right there with PCA for being the best fantasy point scorer in the league over the last few months.
Jose Altuve $4,500
Great spot for his lack of bat speed to turn into a cheap homer, and the Astros should score runs here.
Ketel Marte $4,600
THIRD BASE
Isaac Paredes $4,700
Jose Ramirez $5,100
Faces the lefty Cameron, and he has done most of his slugging in these spots. .475 SLG as a right-handed batter, .329 as a lefty.
Miguel Vargas $5,400
He’s expensive, and the projections haven’t really bought into him this year, but he’s the best fantasy point scorer on the White Sox, so he’s an instrumental part of those stacks.
Colson Montgomery $3,900
I could understand leaving him off. He’s hitting .200/.283/.410 this year, and has just a .317 SLG in the second half. Looks pretty busted.
Javier Sanoja $3,300
Guy has been shockingly good in the second half, and remains very cheap here on an offense we like.
SHORTSTOP
Corey Seager $3,400
So, so cheap for Seager.
Jeremy Pena $5,200
If Seager’s price wasn’t so ridiculous, Pena would be the top play by far. He probably still is as a lead-off man in Sac town.
Elly De La Cruz $5,900
If you just want to play the hot bats, Elly is that guy. But the matchup with Soriano and the price has me taking the $700 discount down to Pena.
Cooper Pratt $3,100
Pratt’s hitting .282/.346/.368 this year. Not a ton of power, but plenty of base knoks and steals, and the Brewers are in a great spot as they try to lock down this #1 seed with one more win.
OUTFIELD
Yordan Alvarez $6,500
Lawrence Butler $4,200
Henry Bolte $4,800
Garrett Mitchell $4,000
Jackson Chourio $6,000
Jackson Merrill $4,700
Lars Nootbaar $3,100
Jakob Marsee $3,200
Sam Antonacci $4,300
Heriberto Hernandez $4,000
Here’s how the optimizer plays our Astros + White Sox with deGrom + Williams.
It’s tough to get the bats you want spending $19,400 at pitcher. It’s a good night to play 20 tourney lineups with the shortened player pool I’ve established and let it rip.
The raw optimal projected lineup with no interventions:
SP Bryce Miller
SP Tarik Skubal
C Yainer Diaz
1B Pavin Smith
2B Jose Altuve
3B Isaac Paredes
SS Corey Seager
OF Shohei Ohtani
OF Lars Nootbaar
OF Brandon Nimmo
But I’d rather do some manual intervention tonight. I’m trying to stick to the pitchers I know will have a full pitch count. Good luck out there!