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Weather
We have one weather spot to watch, and that is BRAVES at CUBS:
ORANGE/YELLOW - A very tricky forecast here. We should start the game with some scattered light showers, likely not enough of an issue for a late start. In-game a thin line of storms develops, and if that line sits over the ballpark it could be highly problematic. It might hold just far enough south to not be an issue at all. We’re dealing with margins here that are too slim to be confident in either direction. So I’ll keep a watch on model trends through the day, update in the afternoon, then see how radar looks pregame. For now I guess I lean towards a clean game, but there’s a lot of ways that could go wrong.
Doesn’t look like a huge issue, and we saw last night how easily these games can go off with Yankees/Twins being “orange” early in the day and then playing just fine. But it’s worth mentioning.
Game Data
IMPLIED TOTALS
Padres (vs. COL): 7.59 implied, +3.2
D’Backs (vs. MIA): 5.18 implied, +0.64
Yankees (vs. MIN): 5.14 implied, +0.79
Mariners (vs. LAA): 5.08 implied, +1.07
Astros (vs. KC): 5.02 implied, +0.61
Cardinals (vs. SF): 5.02 implied, +0.52
IMPLIED TOTALS ABOVE AVERAGE
Padres +3.21
Mariners +1.07
Blue Jays (vs. DET): +1.01
FAVORITE STACKS
Padres vs. Freeland
D’Backs vs. Junk
Yankees vs. Ober
Cubs vs. Perez
Rockies vs. Buehler
Red Sox vs. Bradford
Aaron Judge showed up last night with a homer, so maybe he’ll shake off the rust and make the Yankees a good stack again.
A Mariners stacks vs. Ryan Johnson should be super low-owned and that’s interesting. Johnson has been great in the box score but not good at all in the stats that matter to us, so you can roll with some Mariners.