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Weather
Big issues in the Yankees/Twins game:
ORANGE - Ugly, ugly day here. It pours all afternoon in MIN. It does gradually improve this evening, but even then there are some scattered showers to watch for. Maybe they decide they don’t want to try it and hit us with an early PPD, if they haven’t done that by the late afternoon and they give this an honest attempt to play, I think it’s doable with patience. It’s worth noting that the weather tomorrow is absolutely beautiful, and if it were me I’d PPD this now and play two tomorrow.
Everything else is good to go!
Game Info
PADRES vs. SUGANO
7.43 implied, +3.11 above average
We have been looking at these implications above average for months now and I’ve never seen a plus three. The Padres are juiced up and highly owned. They need to take advantage of this series against the Rockies, and they are not the right chalk to fade.
CUBS vs. REYNALDO LOPEZ
5.47 implied
Lopez has a 22% K%, 10% BB%, 12% K-BB%, 10.2% SwStr%, 38% Ball%, and .337 xwOBA against this year in 12 starts. He’s not good. The Cubs offense IS good, so it’s GOOD vs. NOT GOOD. So that means we like the Cubs. They are the proper pivot off of the Padres ownership even though this implication is right at their season average.
So those are the only two above a five-run implication. Lots of decent pitching on this slate, and no other offense really pops by the game data. Some other teams above their season average:
D’Backs 4.84 implied, +0.34 (vs. Alcantara)
Cardinals 4.72 implied, +0.19 (vs. Roupp)
Blue Jays 4.35 implied, +0.35 (vs. Melton)
I don’t like picking any of those three pitchers. I’m most inclined to play bats against Melton and his high fly ball rate and lower K%. But I don’t understand the 4.84 on the Snakes for certain.
That SF/STL game is in St. Louis. So it’s not as bad as SF, but it’s still a pitcher’s park and Roupp usually does okay.
ROCKIES vs. CASEY MIZE
4.07 implied, -0.74 implied
The books don’t give teams vs. SD high implications because of Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, etc. The Padres bullpen is elite.
But I don’t care for Casey Mize. He has just a 22% K% this year with a still very low 12% HR/FB. He’s given up 13 runs in his last four and just hasn’t been very good with his new team. I’ll play some Rockies tonight, you just have to hope they do their scoring in the first six innings, I guess.